hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 UK continues to tick southeast with wave #1. The question is... is the UK correct or are the sleet models correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 UK continues to tick southeast with wave #1. The question is... is the UK correct or are the sleet models correct?The difference isn’t all in the thermals with the UKMET/GEM/RGEM vs others though. They are further south altogether with the wave and QPF axis.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 UK nw again with wave 2. There's solid agreement with the nw track now. The farther-southeast Canadian is the outlier. Of course, this is still four days away... plenty of time to shift around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Welp, something to look forward to is 6 hours of ZR with gusty winds on Friday. Definitely going to cause power troubles but hopefully not as bad as the derecho. Operational GFS has 6 hours of ZR with temps at 30-31F with wind gusts up to 45 mph. Could definitely get about a quarter inch of ice from wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Natester said: Welp, something to look forward to is 6 hours of ZR with gusty winds on Friday. Definitely going to cause power troubles but hopefully not as bad as the derecho. Operational GFS has 6 hours of ZR with temps at 30-31F with wind gusts up to 45 mph. If the bar is set as the 8/10 derecho, I'm pretty sure the power problems won't be as bad in Iowa. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: If the bar is set as the 8/10 derecho, I'm pretty sure the power problems won't be as bad in Iowa. True although it's not fun sleeping in a cold house with room temps in the 50s. But I'm sure that beats sleeping with room temps in the 80s as happened during the 9 day power outage caused by the derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Really not sure why we're forecasting power outages for a storm on Friday when we don't know what's going to happen tomorrow night. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Euro wave #1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: Euro wave #1. Going off memory, it looks like a bit of a southward bump from 00z. Or it at least brought lighter amounts farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: Going off memory, it looks like a bit of a southward bump from 00z. Or it at least brought lighter amounts farther south. It's south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 12z Euro has the second storm northwest of Houston. I can't imagine that far west of a location is going to end well for most of the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Going to need a bigger boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Euro is nw again. Thermals are really garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Euro is nw again. Thermals are really garbage. It's actually SE and weaker than 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Euro is nw again. Thermals are really garbage. Hello old friend, lack of any semblance of cold antecedent airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: It's actually SE and weaker than 0z. You are correct. It's weaker and loses some of the cooling, leading to more crap precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Well on the bright side the wind gusts depicted on the euro aren't too bad. 25-30 mph wind gusts. Not the 40-45 mph gusts depicted by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 20 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Final calls, 2.1 front end, rain to DAB part 2 Looking solid, maybe an inch or two low on advection snows if banding develops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I'm grateful for living downwind of Lake Michigan but even my Christmas Day lake effect snow pack is gone already. All 8+ inches of it save some of the big piles of snow. I guess I'll take a tenth of an inch of ice on each wave this week before changing to plain rain. Maybe an inch of front end snow on wave 1 Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Interesting trend on the last several Euro runs. There has been a slower system and more of an erosion of the low level cold, as depicted on the 925 mb temps valid 12z Friday. This makes the overall magnitude/areal severity of the icing setup a bit more questionable as you'd really like to see 925 mb safely below 0C (even a few degrees below 0C). Will be curious to see if the NAM erodes the cold layer as quickly as it gets in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Was never a good ice setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Was never a good ice setup Disagree. It has/had potential with a more favorable surface high position than Tue-Wed... outside of your backyard of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Disagree. It has/had potential with a more favorable surface high position than Tue-Wed... outside of your backyard of course. Plenty of time for the players to move around a bit, but I am not as pumped about siggy ice as I was a few days ago. Hopefully things trend colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 37 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: I'm grateful for living downwind of Lake Michigan but even my Christmas Day lake effect snow pack is gone already. All 8+ inches of it save some of the big piles of snow. I guess I'll take a tenth of an inch of ice on each wave this week before changing to plain rain. Maybe an inch of front end snow on wave 1 Tuesday night. LES is fun, buts melts SO fast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Feature not a bug^ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 18z hrrr continues the trend. Wouldn’t take much of a bump to get northern LOT in some bigger totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, NEILwxbo said: 18z hrrr continues the trend. Wouldn’t take much of a bump to get northern LOT in some bigger totals Ultimately I think most of the LOT cwa will be under a winter storm warning or winter wx advisory. The southern part of an advisory mainly accounting for some icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, NEILwxbo said: 18z hrrr continues the trend. Wouldn’t take much of a bump to get northern LOT in some bigger totals Yeah this run is going to throw out some nice totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Yeah this run is going to throw out some nice totals. 14" in Eastern IA and still ripping at 35hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now