Baum Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 10 hours ago, purduewx80 said: Why, meteorologically? I found my reasoning, Courtesy, Phil Scwarz of ABC in Chicago. definite fun week of watching over the holiday period no matter how it turns out. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 our IA posters should be hyped for the death band tomorrow gonna need a lil trend south in guidance here for my IMBY call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 lack of true arctic feed going to be the death knell for wave #2 even if we get my track. 6Z GFS isn't far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 GEM continues to hold firm on wave 1, with the UKMET not too far off.The GFS/Euro continue to bump south each run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Wagons south on the first storm. Think there’s gonna be a nice band of double digit totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 After watching these model runs I've come to the conclusion that there's not enough cold air available for anything but marginal,thread the needle systems in recent winters. Receiving significant snow is like playing pick 4 lotto 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 After watching these model runs I've come to the conclusion that there's not enough cold air available for anything but marginal,thread the needle systems in recent winters. Receiving significant snow is like playing pick 4 lottoCongrats tomorrow-Wednesday.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Congrats tomorrow-Wednesday. . HRRR already p good especially out his way, another couple bumps and we got this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Please download and contribute 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrFreeze6298 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 -15°F this morning in the MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 similar banded look to the HRRR/RGEM advection parameters have always looked excellent with this wave so it should rip for an hour or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 ALEK building 'em up only to tear down later. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Pretty rippin' sounding in Chicago Tues. evening... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I'm down near the end of that proboscis band and my sounding is almost as good... except it'll last 5 minutes lol.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 49 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Congrats tomorrow-Wednesday. . I've been purchasing a ticket everyday since Thanksgiving. Its about time to hit on a few numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Sure why not. Trend in the high res guidance seems to be to keep mby and ORD frozen until about hour 45-46, which is plenty of time to lay down a few good inches of snow with some nice ripping bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 probably should have had 2 separate threads for these events. not that it's a big deal. Just nice to have some action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Reggie further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 12Z GFS is similar to the 0Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 GFS, the pinnacle of model consistency. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 The HRRR is pretty to look at, but it's counting on colder thermals keeping the sleet farther south. Other models are easily surging sleet up through east-central Iowa. I'm not going to bet against the warm air aloft. 4-8" seems reasonable for Cedar Rapids. The Friday wave is trending back nw again, but, coming from the gulf, it's too darn warm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I'll worry about Friday starting Wednesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Could be some flooding issues across Indiana and Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I'm riding the 2.5km RGEM lol. In all seriousness I'll just go with a general 3-6" for here/QC in agreement with DVN. Hawkeye and crew should clean up again with 8"+ looking quite likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Wanted to take a little break from the model bombardment. Our players are about halfway on the field now. The first system has given LA an early AM round of thunderstorms. That ridge (zigzag) off the West Coast pumps back up quickly after the next trough passes through and then digs into Mexico (similar to the Friday wave), thanks largely to the persistent upper low to the southeast of Hawaii. All of that teleconnects to ridging along or just off the East Coast. There's a lot of convection in the tropics/sub-tropics playing into the pattern, more than what can be shown on this satellite. Once the Friday wave digs into Mexico, the ridging ahead of it (over the eastern Gulf, Florida and the Bahamas) will likely be beefed up by convection developing over the warm Gulf of Mexico. That process is partially what allows the warm air aloft to flood north ahead of the upper low, bringing the risk for mixed/freezing precip as high pressure to the north continually feeds lower level cold/dry air. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Get it Chicago Storm. That LOT morning AFD can sure fire a snow starved weenie up. Pretty sure its finally happening again. A meaningful Bears/Pack game and a Border Battle for the Snow in the same week. Feeling naively optimistic Geo's magnet and SE trend can team up to Save the Palm Tree's and drop a nice surprise further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 our buddy with and update National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1032 AM CST Mon Dec 28 2020 .UPDATE... 1032 AM CST No big changes to the forecast for tomorrow-tomorrow night`s wintry precip event. In addition to a decision on the Winter Storm Watch for Winnebago, Boone, and Ogle Counties, will be needing a Winter Weather Advisory for a good chunk of the remainder of the CWA, likely including the entire Chicago metro. Will defer these decisions to the full afternoon forecast package issuance. Looking at the 12z suite thus far, noting a tendency for pretty rapid top-down saturation of the initially dry cP air mass in the wake of departing high pressure, so envision a bit earlier onset than in current official forecast. Ingredients discussed in the short term discussion from the overnight shift are certainly there, with their longest duration and impacts generally where the watch is in effect. Forecast soundings indicate that the snow will likely fall at a moderate to even heavy clip along and north of the Kankakee River (shorter duration south of I-80), with strong omega well aligned with the DGZ into the early to mid evening. Onset time of the snow will be just prior to and during the afternoon commute hours, so travel impacts are likely. With the strong LLJ driving strong WAA, eventually a warm nose will surge in aloft during the mid to late evening, changing precip over to sleet and then freezing rain, latest in the far north where snow should hold on a bit longer. Given the accumulating snow, followed by sleet and then up to to 1/10-2/10" ice, hazardous travel can be expected, warranting expected advisory issuance and perhaps upgrade to warning where a watch is in effect. Castro 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 better cash in tomorrow as best we can. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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