ChiTownSnow Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Nice pencil thin band of snow on the northern edge of the precip shield at the end of the NAM. Yeah. Hoping that expands nicely over the next few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: If you recall the Feb 2019 icing, that's something we got burned by. Much of the guidance kept insisting on warming the boundary layer to above freezing even though surface winds were progged to remain northeast/east-northeast at the surface. Putting down snow cover and not melting it going into the event is a wild card that could point toward sfc temps verifying colder if we get a scenario like shown on the 12z Euro. Yep... as long as that e/ne flow is there in the lowest couple thousand feet, there's a real possibility it would delay the climb above freezing at the surface. Even if it did manage to stay AOB freezing for a longer time, it doesn't necessarily mean that accretion efficiency would be great the whole time as marginal temps and heavier precip usually makes it tough to build up a lot of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Going to be a nail biter here in Peoria. 1st wave on most guidance minus UKMET/GEM misses me largely north and 2nd wave has the low nearly on me on most guidance. I'm expecting more ice than anything now and some plain rain. Unsure on snow potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Final calls, 2.1 front end, rain to DAB part 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Still our biggest event of the season with ease. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 GFS actually weakened the low somewhat, stops the westward trend a little at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 10 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: GFS actually weakened the low somewhat, stops the westward trend a little at least. It has to do with the pattern further north. The wave ends up shearing out to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 All the models are occluding/shearing the low at some point, but differ on when. The opGFS does it before reaching Iowa, the Euro after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 FWIW, the 18z parallel GFS just shifted back eastward(now veers east of Iowa), the first run of any model that has done that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 18z gfs step in right direction for me. I'm literally on the gradient from warning criteria to like nothing. Lol. What's new. Hopefully can see a few more nudges se. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Worried about the ice potential with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Long way off and lots can and will change But talk about a dramatic cutoff!!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Long way off and lots can and will change But talk about a dramatic cutoff!!!! Classic IL River sharp cutoff. Never fails. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Long way off and lots can and will change But talk about a dramatic cutoff!!!! I buy downtown Chicago having issues with a strong east or northeast wind during wave 2. Lake is still mild enough to cause problems immediately along the lake and a bit inland in a marginal air mass. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 35 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Long way off and lots can and will change But talk about a dramatic cutoff!!!! Looks pretty similar to Nov 25-26 2018 with an even worse cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 51 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Damn. Well at least its something. Typical Indiana. Storm kind of reminding me of GHD 2011 in terms of track and precip types. Obviously it's not as intense as that but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Whether or not it's enough to help me, I would hold out hope about the extreme northwest track not verifying. It is not easy to get a track from the TX/LA border coastal region toward the Quad Cities. Yes, it can happen, but it really has to be forced and any relatively minor change aloft could serve to deflect the system more northeast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Whether or not it's enough to help me, I would hold out hope about the extreme northwest track not verifying. It is not easy to get a track from the TX/LA border coastal region toward the Quad Cities. Yes, it can happen, but it really has to be forced and any relatively minor change aloft could serve to deflect the system more northeast. If it were to ever happen it would be this year on the last day of 2020. Lololololol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Anyone with access to the 18z Euro, what does it show? That is if the run is in progress. ICON is the furthest west and spells monster ice storm for multiple states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Whether or not it's enough to help me, I would hold out hope about the extreme northwest track not verifying. It is not easy to get a track from the TX/LA border coastal region toward the Quad Cities. Yes, it can happen, but it really has to be forced and any relatively minor change aloft could serve to deflect the system more northeast. Yea the euro has been over-amping and been far too west with a few systems this winter. It had the storm a few weeks ago that went just west of the apps, bombing out and tracking near Chicago 120+ hrs out. If I had to guess id say a track more like todays Canadian is more likely, possibly even more SE. I cant remember the last time a secondary tracked due north and northwest in the winter. Just hoping it doesnt shiat the bed and occlude/get shunted east too quickly. Wish i was a player in the titan/packers game tonight. Nothing like getting paid to play in heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Whether or not it's enough to help me, I would hold out hope about the extreme northwest track not verifying. It is not easy to get a track from the TX/LA border coastal region toward the Quad Cities. Yes, it can happen, but it really has to be forced and any relatively minor change aloft could serve to deflect the system more northeast. I'll go Cape Girardeau- Indianapolis- Toledo track. Pretty simple. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Anyone with access to the 18z Euro, what does it show? That is if the run is in progress. ICON is the furthest west and spells monster ice storm for multiple states.Only goes to 90hrs, but aloft would suggest it would end up potential south of 12z. More ridging ahead of the closing off wave, however like the GFS, the northern stream is pressing in more across Canada. . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 31 minutes ago, Baum said: I'll go Cape Girardeau- Indianapolis- Toledo track. Pretty simple. Why, meteorologically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Nice LR discussion from Ryan at KIND..... .LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Issued at 241 PM EST Sun Dec 27 2020 The second part of the storm system set to impact the region the second half of the week remains the primary focus for the extended and unfortunately at this stage of the game...is offering more questions than answers on specific impacts for central Indiana on New Years Eve and New Years Day. A strong ridge across the eastern half of the country will be slowly but steadily flattened by a strong upper low that will pinwheel out of northern Mexico and across Texas Wednesday night and Thursday before lifting north into the Great Lakes by late Friday. There has been a noted westward shift in the model suite over the last 24 to 36 hours with respect to the upper low track due to more energy aloft carving out the massive trough over the central portion of the country and a strengthening of the upper ridge off the Florida coast. The upper low takes on a negative tilt which pulls it further west as well. That being said...the model suite is all over the place with its handling of the secondary surface wave set to develop along the frontal boundary and lift northeast towards the Ohio Valley by late Thursday. While there has been a westward shift at the surface as well...the main operational models with the exception of the GGEM are further west than the ensemble means. It should be noted that a surface wave track due north or slightly east of north off the Louisiana coast is a bit of a climatologically unfavorable track for a surface wave. Just another point to toss into the jumble of thoughts this afternoon. A general blend at this point is preferred until better model agreement can develop. So...what can we take away at this point 4-5 days out? Confidence is high in a higher impact storm moving through the Ohio Valley and central Indiana for New Years Eve and New Years Day. But that is about all that can be said right now. The lack of model agreement and fluidity of the entire suite lends no confidence into the details of the forecast and impacts...namely precip type duration and intensity. The storm will have access to a rich plume of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico which will ensure modest precip amounts from Wednesday night into Friday. Expect rain to continue as the precip type to start Wednesday night with the potential for some wintry mischief on the northern flank of the precip shield late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as low level thermals become marginal. There is likely to be a lull in precip coverage on Thursday before moisture returns with the approach of the second surface low late Thursday into Friday. Storm track will become critical at this point in determining precip type but the potential for at least some snow and/or ice accums is a possibility that needs to be considered. A track that ends up east would bring a greater risk for either snow or ice but even should the track of the low remain further west...an easterly flow in the low levels Thursday night into Friday morning as the low approaches could present some problems over the forecast area with an increased potential for an icy mess in the form of freezing rain and/or sleet. Expect at least another 36-48 hours before we can gain more clarity on the details with this storm system and the likely impacts locally here in central Indiana. The primary area of upper energy will come onshore over California on Monday with better sampling of the feature coming thereafter. At this point...prepare for a higher impact winter storm over the Ohio Valley from the second half of Wednesday into New Years Day with locally heavy rainfall...a wintry mix or perhaps some accumulations of snow and/or ice all within the range of possibilities. Dry and chilly weather will follow the departure of this system for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 ^deleted it. I need to rise above. apologies to the board for off topic bs in the middle of a great upcoming period. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 00z HRRR at 48 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Got a dusting out there this evening. Cautiously optimistic to get a couple inches this week and would just be thrilled to get 6" or more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 00z HRRR at 48 hrsFantasy HRRR, but not far off the GEM solution.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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