Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Was talking more locally about what happens and where in the LOT cwa. Makes sense. Trend is good for now at least, and appears Euro will follow as well with a bump south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Fairly large bump south coming from the Euro for Tue/Wed lead wave. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Fairly large bump south coming from the Euro for Tue/Wed lead wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 I'm not even talking about getting into that shmexy pink swath, but surely laying down even a couple inches of snow in LOT would help with temperatures for wave II right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Katy bar the door. Not looking good on this Euro run if you're hoping for a significant southward shift with part 2. Down to 995 mb in the Arklatex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, Malacka11 said: I'm not even talking about getting into that shmexy pink swath, but surely laying down even a couple inches of snow in LOT would help with temperatures for wave II right? It won't matter if the system is as significant as modeled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, Malacka11 said: I'm not even talking about getting into that shmexy pink swath, but surely laying down even a couple inches of snow in LOT would help with temperatures for wave II right? Except the potential problem with wave 2, even over here, is the warm air aloft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, Malacka11 said: I'm not even talking about getting into that shmexy pink swath, but surely laying down even a couple inches of snow in LOT would help with temperatures for wave II right? It'd be better than not having snow on the ground, but the impact is often overstated. And assuming the snow from wave 1 doesn't melt in the meantime, which is a distinct possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Euro showing a lot of icing north of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 A little icy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Euro a bit closer to being WEDGE in IN/OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: A little icy CMC brings heavy ice also. But well into western Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: A little icy Can I pull an ALEK here ^toss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 It's not often we see a winter low track from the nw gulf to Quincy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 The low track on the euro is just so odd. Have a hard time believing that’d happen but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 I wouldn’t be so quick to toss a map like that. Especially over areas that see snow on Tuesday. Lot of WAA aloft here... could spell trouble for someone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Coldest rain, brutal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Coldest rain, brutal Shore temps have dropped to around 40 with the recent cold spell. Would be an interesting test to see if downtown could get any ice with that or if it would stay above freezing the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: It won't matter if the system is as significant as modeled. At least the Euro has had a tendency to overamp solutions this winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Gonna be 33 and rain here for Wednesday and the New Years storm. Tuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: It's not often we see a winter low track from the nw gulf to Quincy. Reminds me alot of the super el nino of 15-16. Late December we had a storm track like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 hour ago, IllinoisWedges said: Euro a bit closer to being WEDGE in IN/OH Euro has upper 50s dews in the warm sector with SSE winds. Develops a secondary low over Indiana. Honestly that run verbatim is kinda similar to 12/1/18, just farther east. Obviously wouldn’t expect much at all, but it is something to watch with the low looking to track pretty far west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Im going to enjoy tracking this. You guys deserve a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 If we're to get a closed off low lifting close to due north like the Euro run will also have to watch for the magnitude of the high pressure to the north. The setup offered by the Euro is somewhat similar to 12/28/15 (Edit: the event referenced by@WI_SNOWSTORM), though that one had a stronger HP to the north/northeast. Should the surface ridging extending back west across the northern Lakes trend stronger, that could play a big role in sleet vs freezing rain distribution. 12z run verbatim looks icier farther north than 00z run did without looking at the ice accum output, still borderline IP vs ZR for a time around 12z north of I-80 using 925 mb temps and winds as a proxy. You could also keep the surface (away from Lake Michigan) at or below freezing for a longer duration with that odd due north track because that would prolong the period of northeasterly sfc winds and associated evaporative cooling. Would be an impactful mixed precip event for the LOT CWA as modeled on the Euro, especially north half and away from Chicago shore. Lots of time to go on this one and pretty much a wide variety of outcomes on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 19 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said: Gonna be 33 and rain here for Wednesday and the New Years storm. Tuff After a surprise 3.6" of Christmas snow and seeing how much the models struggle/change run to run, I don't think ill ever feel fully confident of any scenario in any event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 20 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: If we're to get a closed off low lifting close to due north like the Euro run will also have to watch for the magnitude of the high pressure to the north. The setup offered by the Euro is somewhat similar to 12/28/15 (Edit: the event referenced by@WI_SNOWSTORM), though that one had a stronger HP to the north/northeast. Should the surface ridging extending back west across the northern Lakes trend stronger, that could play a big role in sleet vs freezing rain distribution. 12z run verbatim looks icier farther north than 00z run did without looking at the ice accum output, still borderline IP vs ZR for a time around 12z north of I-80 using 925 mb temps and winds as a proxy. You could also keep the surface (away from Lake Michigan) at or below freezing for a longer duration with that odd due north track because that would prolong the period of northeasterly sfc winds and associated evaporative cooling. Would be an impactful mixed precip event for the LOT CWA as modeled on the Euro, especially north half and away from Chicago shore. Lots of time to go on this one and pretty much a wide variety of outcomes on the table. I was a little surprised it changed to rain as quick as it did given the e/ne sfc winds as you mentioned. That is quite a surge of warm air off the deck though so maybe that is why the low level cold layer eroded so quickly even with the e/ne surface winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Looking at the 12z EPS, wave 1 had a pretty big adjustment south similar to the operational. There's substantial west to east spread on the sfc low placement for wave 2, with the mean actually bumping east of the 06z. Another component we'll have to watch is the possibility of wave 2 getting sheared out in confluent flow to the northeast, which could tug the sfc low track more northeast with time depending on when that occurs. The EPS mean favors this sort of setup, so there's a decent amount of member support for the wave closing off, occluding and then shearing northeast. So many complexities to the setup. Edit: Included wave 2 in 2nd sentence of 1st paragraph 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 I was a little surprised it changed to rain as quick as it did given the e/ne sfc winds as you mentioned. That is quite a surge of warm air off the deck though so maybe that is why the low level cold layer eroded so quickly even with the e/ne surface winds.If you recall the Feb 2019 icing, that's something we got burned by. Much of the guidance kept insisting on warming the boundary layer to above freezing even though surface winds were progged to remain northeast/east-northeast at the surface. Putting down snow cover and not melting it going into the event is a wild card that could point toward sfc temps verifying colder if we get a scenario like shown on the 12z Euro. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 NAM improving on front end WAA snows like others 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Nice pencil thin band of snow on the northern edge of the precip shield at the end of the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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