Malacka11 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Really don't see how northern IL/northwest IN avoids rain with this. It's a question of how much of the storm is rain... 10%, 50%, 90%, 100%? That has yet to be sorted out. You have to will the storm into staying all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 18z NAM at hour 84 looks almost exactly like hour 90 of the euro. Judging by the low placement at hour 84, the NAM might take the low through central Iowa in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 18z GFS came in slower and has the low tracking through NW Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Another crap rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 18z GFS came in slower and has the low tracking through NW Iowa.It’s still playing catch-up...give it some time.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Everyone here complaining about rain while the GFS has 24'' of snow for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 11 minutes ago, MNstorms said: Everyone here complaining about rain while the GFS has 24'' of snow for me. I take comfort in the fact that even if it rains here, at least someone is gonna have a good time. Not that I necessarily think it's gonna be just rain In N IL, but... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: It’s still playing catch-up...give it some time. . Pulling for u 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Pulling for uI’m not saying we’re going to get something sig here...yet. But it’s a lot closer than some think.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 hours ago, Malacka11 said: I take comfort in the fact that even if it rains here, at least someone is gonna have a good time. Not that I necessarily think it's gonna be just rain In N IL, but... Quality post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 The GFS has some similarities to what just happened. A primary low tracking fairly far n/w with a secondary that forms and benefits the eastern sub. Would actually be pretty comical to get missed to the east with a secondary twice in 1 week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 That and considering the ground top layer is a rock from the rain that froze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The GFS has some similarities to what just happened. A primary low tracking fairly far n/w with a secondary that forms and benefits the eastern sub. Would actually be pretty comical to get missed to the east with a secondary twice in 1 Storm tracks once established love to stay that way. Would be third system for Eastern Ohio, Pennsylvania etc.. Then another coastal on the 4th possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 GEM.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 FWIW, the ICON has a sort of similar evolution to the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: GEM. . Haven't put alot of stock in the Canadian. Always thought UKMET better at verifying. Icon somewhat similar will see if UKMET and Euro move towards that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Storm tracks once established love to stay that way. Would be third system for Eastern Ohio, Pennsylvania etc.. Then another coastal on the 4th possible I'm not really a big believer in the idea of storm tracks following what happened earlier just because, but that GFS evolution was funny. It's not even a basic suppressed solution with a low running from the GOM to Philly or something like that, it's literally the exact type of evolution that we just had with a primary tracking nw and then another low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: I'm not really a big believer in the idea of storm tracks following what happened earlier just because, but that GFS evolution was funny. It's not even a basic suppressed solution with a low running from the GOM to Philly or something like that, it's literally the exact type of evolution that we just had with a primary tracking nw and then another low. Too many winters have jackpot areas that seem to get hit over and over. DTW a few years back had the snow magnet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Too many winters have jackpot areas that seem to get hit over and over. DTW a few years back had the snow magnet. You're never gonna perfectly distribute the snowfall. Certain types of tracks will win out over others in a given winter... I'm not denying that. That doesn't mean other tracks can't occur depending on the setup at a particular time. A great example of a track not locking in is December 2000. We had a rocking month and then could hardly buy any snow most of the rest of the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 We'll see here shortly with the UKMET and then the Euro which way things are leaning. This past setup, I think the GFS having the support of the UKMET was key. It can be prone to some big swings but it's a solid model per verification stats, we just have less data available from it. If UKMET supports a GEM-like solution like the 12z run did and the ECMWF and EPS bumps again, we might be seeing a trend toward a GEM-like outcome. Edit: and vice versa could be true too. Did notice that the spread of the GEFS members increased, which despite the op-like solution being still more favored could be a sign of lowering confidence in which scenario is more probable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Again FWIW, a decent number of GEFS members show some sort of secondary low action. Definitely a noticeable change from earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Again FWIW, a decent number of GEFS members show some sort of secondary low action. Definitely a noticeable change from earlier. Yep just noticed the same thing and edited my post to reflect that. The GEFS still appears to follow the op more than the EPS does, 30 members vs 51 on the EPS may have something to do with that. That said, seeing a few members go toward a strong secondary might be a sign. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 End of 0z Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Ukie has a solution of its own.Northern stream misses, so southern wave ejects out late and well south.Main snows are actually overrunning/frontal.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Well, the UKMET is something... One thing we can say for sure is it's not even close to the 00z GFS aloft. Other than that, much different evolution than we've seen on the other operational runs. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Looks like there will be an icy transition zone with the high in place before it retreats and low level cold erodes, though how that sets up and the magnitude of it sort of depends on how this system evolves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Hmm.... just a bit of a difference. The UK is fast with the northern wave and pretty much just sweeps it through the region with no big low. The Euro dives a northern bowling ball south into the trough and wraps up a big storm (takes a northern track). UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Euro, similar to the GEM, dives the northern wave in while the trough is over the Rockies and Plains...this leading to a more sig outcome.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 This Euro run has secondary wave development, but it doesn't really wrap up until it's exiting into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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