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Dec 29-Jan 2 potential storm event


Brian D
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Not gonna get sucked back in yet, but the 00z GEM came way back south on the 30th-31st, bringing warning level snows into northern IL, including QCA and much of the Chicago metro (which right there probably means it's wrong ) except for the far south. We'll see if the UKMET and ECMWF shift at all tonight toward a more favorable evolution, like what the GEM depicted.

 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not gonna get sucked back in yet, but the 00z GEM came way back south on the 30th-31st, bringing warning level snows into northern IL, including QCA and much of the Chicago metro (which right there probably means it's wrong emoji38.png) except for the far south. We'll see if the UKMET and ECMWF shift at all tonight toward a more favorable evolution, like what the GEM depicted.

 

 

 

 

the gfs has seemed to have the poorest performance lately 

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the gfs has seemed to have the poorest performance lately 
GFS performed best with the current setup, way north with the primary and better east for secondary, but it's been spotty at best otherwise (by far the worst for the big dog in the east). I'd say overall the modeling has been poor, it seems to struggle in fast flow patterns. Hopefully with the big time -NAO signal coming up that can help slow things down and improve the modeling.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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25 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not gonna get sucked back in yet, but the 00z GEM came way back south on the 30th-31st, bringing warning level snows into northern IL, including QCA and much of the Chicago metro (which right there probably means it's wrong emoji38.png) except for the far south. We'll see if the UKMET and ECMWF shift at all tonight toward a more favorable evolution, like what the GEM depicted.

 

 

 

 

Would take notice if UKMET shifted south. Don't think they will though

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10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

GFS performed best with the current setup, way north with the primary and better east for secondary, but it's been spotty at best otherwise (by far the worst for the big dog in the east). I'd say overall the modeling has been poor, it seems to struggle in fast flow patterns. Hopefully with the big time -NAO signal coming up that can help slow things down and improve the modeling.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

it was too east with the snow band tonight, the last model to correct west. but yes, they all seem to struggle 

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28 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not gonna get sucked back in yet, but the 00z GEM came way back south on the 30th-31st, bringing warning level snows into northern IL, including QCA and much of the Chicago metro (which right there probably means it's wrong emoji38.png) except for the far south. We'll see if the UKMET and ECMWF shift at all tonight toward a more favorable evolution, like what the GEM depicted.

 

 

 

 

Fluke tease

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Seeing significant changes in guidance the past 24 hours on how the next trough is handled.

 

It now is looking increasingly likely a wave in the northern stream will dive SE out of Canada, interacting with the southern stream wave(s) coming into the Southwest. GEM and now the Ukie are showing sig snow much further south now, with the both very close to being an even more sig event than either have modeled even at this time.

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