December 24-25, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast primarily 6PM/24-10AM/25

[wdrag]

OBS and NOWCAST as this storm unfolds.  Power outages may limit some of our participants from adding data. Be prepared for losing the internet, even if you own a generator. 

[Stormlover74]

57 out

[HeadInTheClouds]

50 with light S wind. NWS only calling for 15-25 with gusts to 40-45 by me. Walt, do think with southerly component of wind that funneling in Hudson valley would increase winds slightly in mid HV? 

[donsutherland1]

Clouds were slowly increasing this morning. There was already a fresh wind blowing in off the Long Island Sound. The temperature had risen into the middle 50s.

[wdrag]

For the record as a starting point: 11AM today. No significant outages eastern USA. 

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Clouds were slowly increasing this morning. There was already a fresh wind blowing in off the Long Island Sound. The temperature had risen into the middle 50s.

Don does this eerily remind you of the early rise in the winds on the morning before Sandy hit?

FWIW I see why they're saying it's the strongest winds in the Dec 15- Jan 15 period....it's because December 1992's historic noreaster occurred just before Dec 15 lol.

 

[lee59]

Winds getting fairly strong here, 26mph gusts.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don does this eerily remind you of the early rise in the winds on the morning before Sandy hit?

FWIW I see why they're saying it's the strongest winds in the Dec 15- Jan 15 period....it's because December 1992's historic noreaster occurred just before Dec 15 lol.

 

It does. I don’t believe this will rise to the level of the 1992 nor’easter, but it will be a highlight event this winter.

[Snowlover11]

wasnt the rain suppose to move in between 12-2pm looks like we wont be raining till atleast 4-5pm

[NJwx85]

Quite gusty here already with spotty rain.

[SnoSki14]

61F with breezy conditions.

Things should start cranking gradually next couple hours and beyond.

[gravitylover]

It's been on and off breezy all day and now it's a steady light rain. I saw as high as 56* earlier, it's down a few degrees now to about 50 around the area. 

[nycsnow]

Winds def picking up 

[Intensewind002]

Currently 56 here, temp has been steady for the past few hours. It's already pretty gusty out, as high as 36 mph already for me 

[nycsnow]

Lot of gust 30-35 within last hour along shores... lga with 37. Models have gust 40-50 coming through next couple Hours till the real show tonight 

[nycsnow]

18z nam now has 80mph gust touching costal areas 

[donsutherland1]

Near low tide. The wind is increasingly gusty. There have been some passing patches of drizzle.

[nycsnow]

Tornados down south. Pretty sure reed timmer is chasing there 

[Northof78]

Breezy, with occasional gusts to between 30-35mph

[NJwx85]

Can’t believe how consistently windy it is here already.

[bluewave]

The Queens College sensor at 179 ft gusting to 46 mph.

LaGuardia Arpt CLOUDY    58  49  72 S17G29    29.98F
Queens College   N/A     57  52  82 S22G46      N/A

[wdrag]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

18z nam now has 80mph gust touching costal areas 

Let's temper that 10-15 MPH, and use that 80 for an extreme gust possible but not something I'd want to forecast. I'm staying with 5s5-65 MPH gusts with a few 70-75 MPH somewhere NYC eastward and northeastward. NAM can get a little ballistic. Still...it's potent, especially if lines cross the area 5z-12z. 

[wdrag]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Queens College sensor at 179 ft gusting to 46 mph.

LaGuardia Arpt CLOUDY    58  49  72 S17G29    29.98F
Queens College   N/A     57  52  82 S22G46      N/A

thanks for the post.  Vernon NJ (elevated ski area I think)  hit 47 MPH this morning. 

[wdrag]

Widespread pure drainage flooding can be expected along the edge of the snowpack in our forum overnight, anything 6" to a T.  

[nycsnow]

Sustained winds are getting stronger gust are pretty much same 30-35

[Northwest NJ]

The National Park Service has just closed the Delaware River because of the anticipated high water levels.  I would hope nobody was thinking about venturing out on the river  in a small boat or kayak.  A number of people die on the river every year...

 

https://www.njherald.com/story/news/2020/12/24/national-park-service-closes-delaware-river-in-water-gap-park/4041472001/

[Snowlover11]

4 minutes ago, Northwest NJ said:

The National Park Service has just closed the Delaware River because of the anticipated high water levels.  I would hope nobody was thinking about venturing out on the river  in a small boat or kayak.  A number of people die on the river every year...

 

https://www.njherald.com/story/news/2020/12/24/national-park-service-closes-delaware-river-in-water-gap-park/4041472001/

I remember a few years ago we had a heavy rain event after a snowfall.  that river was high as hell, right on the delaware water pa between nj/pa on route 80.  never been that scared in my life driving.  the water was nearly up to the highway and was moving very fast.

[wdrag]

Suggestion: Do NOT use the NAM 10M gusts as what will occur. They look 10-15 MPH too high already.  I think the HRRR is best. 

[qg_omega]

Pretty calm out there and getting foggy, inversion will strengthen overnight

[nycsnow]

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A highly anomalous system will impact the area the next 24
hours as a vigorous upper low over the Mid Mississippi Valley
begins to take on negative tilt as it approaches the Mid
Atlantic states on Friday. The will drive a strengthening low-
level jet up along the eastern seaboard and into the area
tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. At the nose of the
jet (80 kt), moderate to heavy rainfall will work in across NE
NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and the NYC metro between 9 pm and
midnight, before working across Long Island and CT during the
early morning hours. A second round associated with the pre-
frontal trough will then follow during the early morning hours,
exiting eastern LI/SE CT toward daybreak or shortly thereafter.
Moderate showers will then linger into the afternoon in response
to the approaching upper low. It may take until late afternoon
to exit the area. Also, can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm
with some elevated instability.

PW values approach 1.5 inches overnight, which per SPC
climatology would be a record for the date (Dec. 25). Rainfall
across the region will average close to 2 inches with some of
the higher elevations north and west across the Lower Hudson
Valley, NE NJ, and interior CT receiving 3 plus inches. This
combined with a melting snowpack of up to half a foot will
likely produce flooding across the region. A flood watch remains
up for all but Long Island through Friday morning.

The aforementioned low-level jet will translate to wind advisory
level gusts (46-57 mph) across the interior with high wind
warning gusts at the coast (60 to 70 mph). There is always
uncertainty to how much of the winds can be brought downward,
especially with a shallow mixed layer. However, winds right off
the deck will be on the order of 60 to 70 kt. Heavy rainfall
will also aid in the downward transport of momentum. Strongest
winds will be be during the early morning hours, diminishing
across far eastern areas toward 8 am.