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December 24-25, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast primarily 6PM/24-10AM/25


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22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Clouds were slowly increasing this morning. There was already a fresh wind blowing in off the Long Island Sound. The temperature had risen into the middle 50s.

Larchmont12242020-2.jpg

Larchmont12242020-1.jpg

Don does this eerily remind you of the early rise in the winds on the morning before Sandy hit?

FWIW I see why they're saying it's the strongest winds in the Dec 15- Jan 15 period....it's because December 1992's historic noreaster occurred just before Dec 15 lol.

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don does this eerily remind you of the early rise in the winds on the morning before Sandy hit?

FWIW I see why they're saying it's the strongest winds in the Dec 15- Jan 15 period....it's because December 1992's historic noreaster occurred just before Dec 15 lol.

 

It does. I don’t believe this will rise to the level of the 1992 nor’easter, but it will be a highlight event this winter.

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3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

18z nam now has 80mph gust touching costal areas 

Let's temper that 10-15 MPH, and use that 80 for an extreme gust possible but not something I'd want to forecast. I'm staying with 5s5-65 MPH gusts with a few 70-75 MPH somewhere NYC eastward and northeastward. NAM can get a little ballistic. Still...it's potent, especially if lines cross the area 5z-12z. 

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The National Park Service has just closed the Delaware River because of the anticipated high water levels.  I would hope nobody was thinking about venturing out on the river  in a small boat or kayak.  A number of people die on the river every year...

 

https://www.njherald.com/story/news/2020/12/24/national-park-service-closes-delaware-river-in-water-gap-park/4041472001/

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4 minutes ago, Northwest NJ said:

The National Park Service has just closed the Delaware River because of the anticipated high water levels.  I would hope nobody was thinking about venturing out on the river  in a small boat or kayak.  A number of people die on the river every year...

 

https://www.njherald.com/story/news/2020/12/24/national-park-service-closes-delaware-river-in-water-gap-park/4041472001/

I remember a few years ago we had a heavy rain event after a snowfall.  that river was high as hell, right on the delaware water pa between nj/pa on route 80.  never been that scared in my life driving.  the water was nearly up to the highway and was moving very fast.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A highly anomalous system will impact the area the next 24
hours as a vigorous upper low over the Mid Mississippi Valley
begins to take on negative tilt as it approaches the Mid
Atlantic states on Friday. The will drive a strengthening low-
level jet up along the eastern seaboard and into the area
tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. At the nose of the
jet (80 kt), moderate to heavy rainfall will work in across NE
NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and the NYC metro between 9 pm and
midnight, before working across Long Island and CT during the
early morning hours. A second round associated with the pre-
frontal trough will then follow during the early morning hours,
exiting eastern LI/SE CT toward daybreak or shortly thereafter.
Moderate showers will then linger into the afternoon in response
to the approaching upper low. It may take until late afternoon
to exit the area. Also, can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm
with some elevated instability.

PW values approach 1.5 inches overnight, which per SPC
climatology would be a record for the date (Dec. 25). Rainfall
across the region will average close to 2 inches with some of
the higher elevations north and west across the Lower Hudson
Valley, NE NJ, and interior CT receiving 3 plus inches. This
combined with a melting snowpack of up to half a foot will
likely produce flooding across the region. A flood watch remains
up for all but Long Island through Friday morning.

The aforementioned low-level jet will translate to wind advisory
level gusts (46-57 mph) across the interior with high wind
warning gusts at the coast (60 to 70 mph). There is always
uncertainty to how much of the winds can be brought downward,
especially with a shallow mixed layer. However, winds right off
the deck will be on the order of 60 to 70 kt. Heavy rainfall
will also aid in the downward transport of momentum. Strongest
winds will be be during the early morning hours, diminishing
across far eastern areas toward 8 am.


 

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