January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

[Ji]

block is too far east. The atlantic looks horrible..the Pacific looks even worse

[Ji]

i got time to track this week and there is nothing to track. Another wasted CHristmas to New YEars week of no tracking

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

not even sure what we are tracking at this point. It might be pull down the blinds for a few weeks?

Yup. Maybe February.  

[Ji]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Yup. Maybe February.  

nah..were going to torch in February with a big fat SE ridge.....looks like winter is over

[ryanconway63]

Something isn't right...…I was told this was the best pattern since 1995?   Who said that?

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

not even sure what we are tracking at this point. It might be pull down the blinds for a few weeks?

If the N pac trough crashes into the west it’s over for a while. But last time long range guidance did that and we freaked out it quickly pulled back and we ended up tracking a legit threat. If that pac trough backs off some things become workable quick. But yea so long as that trough is centered over AK were in trouble. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

block is too far east. The atlantic looks horrible..the Pacific looks even worse

That’s a fine looking map lol

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely not.  But many areas saw a dusting to as much as 1-2" locally . Point being it was a white Christmas for the majority of the forum and a wintery look and feel on Xmas  . Something we only see forum wide every once in 10 years + arguably. 

I had 145 flurries. It was pretty nothing.

[blizzardmeiser]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

not even sure what we are tracking at this point. It might be pull down the blinds for a few weeks?

Need to be patient for just a few more weeks. Could be window in mid January if everything lines up perfectly! 

[Ji]

Need to be patient for just a few more weeks. Could be window in mid January if everything lines up perfectly! 

I've been patient since 2017. I've run out

[osfan24]

Man, the 1996 pattern vanished. Whoops, DT!

Remember when people were saying there were just way too many vorts to track and it would be almost impossible not to hit in the next two weeks? Looks more like time to close the blinds until at least mid-January.

[Amped]

14 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

Something isn't right...…I was told this was the best pattern since 1995?   Who said that?

Some guy in SE VA.   They'll get 3-5" from their sneaky costal skimmer on 1/3 which will quickly sizzle away in the pack torch.  Everyone else  is SOL.

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

block is too far east. The atlantic looks horrible..the Pacific looks even worse

 

The block retrogrades into the sweet spot beyond that timeframe on the EPS and GEFS. Only problem is there is no cold air anywhere close by lol.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

The block retrogrades into the sweet spot beyond that timeframe on the EPS and GEFS. Only problem is there is no cold air anywhere close by lol.

Is there cold enough air? 

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

15 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Need to be patient for just a few more weeks. Could be window in mid January if everything lines up perfectly! 

I've been patient since 2017. I've run out

Dear lord if this has been you patient 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The block retrogrades into the sweet spot beyond that timeframe on the EPS and GEFS. Only problem is there is no cold air anywhere close by lol.

 

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Is there cold enough air? 

We will see. I think given the stable pac jet we are unlikely to get much cross polar flow. Maybe the SSW shakes things up. But leaving that aside I am very curious to see what happens if we ever get the N pac trough to pull back with the blocking far enough west to get the trough into the east. History on that says it should work. That a direct flow from the Yukon even absent cold for them would be cold enough to snow.  If it isn’t that’s a bad sign for the damage that’s been done to our snow climo. If we need an arctic air source to get snow anymore that eliminates about 50% of the warning events from my historical case study!  

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, Ji said:

nah..were going to torch in February with a big fat SE ridge.....looks like winter is over

This is just data..people can draw their own inferences. Using the day 8/11 analogs we get 15 years. 5 evolved no where good. 8 evolved into decent patterns and some snow. 4 evolved into epic snowy periods. Just as an interesting side note all the years with a SSW in the set evolved into either decent or good patterns. Makes sense. The years the AO stayed - evolved to a decent look later. The years the AO flipped positive turned into dreg which isn’t shocking given this pac with a +AO is basically last year again. 

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

 

We will see. I think given the stable pac jet we are unlikely to get much cross polar flow. Maybe the SSW shakes things up. But leaving that aside I am very curious to see what happens if we ever get the N pac trough to pull back with the blocking far enough west to get the trough into the east. History on that says it should work. That a direct flow from the Yukon even absent cold for them would be cold enough to snow.  If it isn’t that’s a bad sign for the damage that’s been done to our snow climo. If we need an arctic air source to get snow anymore that eliminates about 50% of the warning events from my historical case study!  

Perfectly located Baffin Block at hour 342 on the GEFS. Here are the surface temp anomalies at that time. Might work lol.

[CAPE]

End of the GEFS run at h5. Funky look. Little better out west though.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Perfectly located Baffin Block at hour 342 on the GEFS. Here are the surface temp anomalies at that time. Might work lol.

To be fair the pac has just begun to pull back there. That first trough won’t do it. There is too much ridging in front. That’s going to cut and timing differences plus some outliers will lead to that torch look. But if the h5 is correct it would be AFTER that period probably behind a cutter that we might see a colder regime. Not COLD...maybe cold enough. If you look at 384 there is cold at 850 beginning to show moving east. We don’t need much of a cold anomaly in mid January to work with a good track. At the surface it looks like a lot of “normal” by day 16. But given the base state and that an members that ridge will torch temps that normal might be slightly below if we take out warm outlier members.  
 

yes I’m painting an optimistic vision here but playing the devils advocate that MAYBE that look can work. 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

To be fair the pac has just begun to pull back there. That first trough won’t do it. There is too much ridging in front. That’s going to cut and timing differences plus some outliers will lead to that torch look. But if the h5 is correct it would be AFTER that period probably behind a cutter that we might see a colder regime. Not COLD...maybe cold enough. If you look at 384 there is cold at 850 beginning to show moving east. We don’t need much of a cold anomaly in mid January to work with a good track. At the surface it looks like a lot of “normal” by day 16. But given the base state and that an members that ridge will torch temps that normal might be slightly below if we take out warm outlier members.  
 

yes I’m painting an optimistic vision here but playing the devils advocate that MAYBE that look can work. 

I was serious. Might work. That's about 10 days into Jan, and not like it's a torch. We are probably stuck with modified Pac airmasses until further notice.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, REH said:

Lol 342 hour temp anomaly map? Good luck 

Good luck making your 4th post a quality one.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I was serious. Might work. That's about 10 days into Jan, and not like it's a torch. We are probably stuck with modified Pac airmasses until further notice.

EPS doesn’t pull the pac trough back at all. Would be difficult. But the GEFS has been handling that feature better.  It handled it better back in early Dec then recently the EPS had a better look and caved.  If we want a tie breaker GEPS agrees with the GEFS wrt pulling back the vortex out of AK after a short visit. It has tended to want to be west of Ak “most of the time” so I will cautiously side with that idea.  We will see. 
 

ETA:  the GEPS is hilarious though in that it has a great PNA EPO ridge, -AO/NAO...and absolutely torches the whole continent. The coldest anomalies in North America are where you would expect in that pattern...the mid Atlantic, but it’s still +3-4  v +10everywhere else.   It’s even more comical then the run I used as an example from the other day!  Everything is perfect and all we can manage is slightly above normal temps. Kinda scary. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, REH said:

Who made you the quality post police? I mean a post showing 342 hour temps is NOT a quality post. Perhaps practice what you preach 

Your using his post out of context 

[clskinsfan]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Your using his post out of context 

I already put the troll on ignore. He might be the fastest to ever make it to my ignore list. 

[Maestrobjwa]

So could we say that perhaps 10-14 days from now we'll have a better idea of how the winter might shape up?...

[cbmclean]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS doesn’t pull the pac trough back at all. Would be difficult. But the GEFS has been handling that feature better.  It handled it better back in early Dec then recently the EPS had a better look and caved.  If we want a tie breaker GEPS agrees with the GEFS wrt pulling back the vortex out of AK after a short visit. It has tended to want to be west of Ak “most of the time” so I will cautiously side with that idea.  We will see. 
 

ETA:  the GEPS is hilarious though in that it has a great PNA EPO ridge, -AO/NAO...and absolutely torches the whole continent. The coldest anomalies in North America are where you would expect in that pattern...the mid Atlantic, but it’s still +3-4  v +10everywhere else.   It’s even more comical then the run I used as an example from the other day!  Everything is perfect and all we can manage is slightly above normal temps. Kinda scary

If there is an EPO ridge, what is the mechanism for the warm air?

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I already put the troll on ignore. He might be the fastest to ever make it to my ignore list. 

World record lol

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Your using his post out of context 

He didn't bother reading anything. He is gonna tell us all how it is though! 

[WinterWxLuvr]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So could we say that perhaps 10-14 days from now we'll have a better idea of how the winter might shape up?...

In 10-14 days we will know better how the next 10-14 days will look