WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, mappy said: do you even read posts before posting? like 3 other people said that before you. Does anybody want vodka cold which suppresses storms? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Does anybody want vodka cold which suppresses storms? It would be similar to 2018 though. 3 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, mappy said: It would be similar to 2018 though. Literal cackle out loud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Does anybody want vodka cold which suppresses storms? Just now, mappy said: It would be similar to 2018 though. We need a new Long Range Mid Atlantic Sub Bingo Card @NorthArlington101 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Literal cackle out loud In class, again? My bad! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 14 hours ago, psuhoffman said: You mean the flow into the Atlantic? We are upwind not down. They are packed tighter because that’s where the mean storm track is and so you get a tighter thermal zone there. They are more w-e because of the block. Storms cannot gain much latitude under that. And that’s what we want. A minor gain in lat like say from NC to MD before turning east is what we want but that will get washed out on a 7 day mean. Look at the mean for our best snow years. It’s the same feature. A W-E oriented trough from the mid Atlantic across the Atlantic Ocean. That’s a blocked signature. Storms cannot lift poleward because of the block end are forced east. Yes, flow into the Atlantic. Yea I understand all that. I thought close iso represented tighter pressure gradient this faster wind speeds. Either way, the orientation of the west to east trough seems flat off of the eastern seaboard. The analog composite you showed has that trough slightly sharper and with a more SE component. Small difference but I was saying if we were to fail, by that map, it would be because of suppression and lack of storm development due to the orientation of the trough and flow into the Atlantic. Just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Can anyone with weatherbell access verify the European Ensemble Arctic oscillation forecast moving forward, the CPC site has deep -AO, then one-third of the members take it to neutral, and two-thirds of the members show another dive down in the Arctic oscillation later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, frd said: Can anyone with weatherbell access verify the European Ensemble Arctic oscillation forecast moving forward, the CPC site has deep -AO, then going one-third of the members take it to neutral, and two-thirds of the members show another dive down in the Arctic oscillation later 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Alot to be optimistic about right now. Starting next week through the end of January ( maybe longer) should offer several opportunities for snow. Could we get Skunked? Sure but with the AO and NAO negative with true blocking I think it would take alot of bad luck not hit on atleast one. First time in many years we have blocking when it matters. @Bob ChiII would always say it takes 3 or 4 opportunities to hit on 1. I think we will get plenty of opportunities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The NAM did pretty well for the December storm, didn't it? I think I'll believe it for Friday-Saturday. Squashed south by our montreal-ish friend up there, some snow in the NC-VA piedmont region. Congrats Danville/Lynchburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I think the 12th is starting to come into focus relatively quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 There is a nice PNA ridge out west and 50/50-esque low at hour 144. EPS 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, PivotPoint said: Yes, flow into the Atlantic. Yea I understand all that. I thought close iso represented tighter pressure gradient this faster wind speeds. Either way, the orientation of the west to east trough seems flat off of the eastern seaboard. The analog composite you showed has that trough slightly sharper and with a more SE component. Small difference but I was saying if we were to fail, by that map, it would be because of suppression and lack of storm development due to the orientation of the trough and flow into the Atlantic. Just saying There is always that risk in a blocking regime but you have to remember we are too far south for most patterns to work. Absent blocking to suppress the flow we are usually south of the storm track. But take Friday for example. The issue is the blocking is a bit too strong and centered too far south. The ensuing trough in the east gets centered south of ideal. You can see on the means this week the west to east “blue” is a bit south of that “big snow” plot I posted. But if the track was further north we would be just fine. The few runs that did show snow for us were mostly west to east systems too...just they came west to east just under us instead of way down in the Deep South. But it’s unlikely the blocking stays at the current really ridiculous levels. It will wax and wane and during those relaxations we could get a system to gain a bit more latitude or come west to east at a higher latitude. Take that storm that fringed us on the long range GFS last night. That gained no latitude at all. It moved straight west to east but if it comes across 50 miles more north we get a HECS. PD2 was like that. It moved straight w-e until it hit the coast then gained some latitude but not much. PD1 1979 also. We also could get a storm that gains some latitude with a temporary relax that won’t show on a 7 day mean. The slight one day ridging ahead of the storm is washed out on means by the N flow behind the storm. We don’t need a lot of latitude gain. Our ideal track is a primary to TN then jump to NC coast and a latitude gain to about Ocean City. From there ideally we want it to move east. That said the building positively tilted western PNA EPO ridge later in the period does add more threat of suppression. January 1977 featured that look and it was arctic cold but bone dry. That’s going to flood cold into the CONUS and suppress the baroclinic zone way south. So yea that’s a threat. But now I’m honestly getting frustrated and here is why. A week ago when the blocking showed but there was still a N PAC trough and not a lot of PNA and no EPO all the debs were saying “but it’s not cold enough in that look we would need a perfect track”. And now that the EPO/PNA ridge goes up it’s “but that could be suppressive”. Ok well what do you freaking want? Those two things are mutually exclusive. You have to dance with one of those devils. Our HECS look actually has less PNA EPO for the very reason you just said. But it’s not a cold pattern and sometimes it’s not cold enough and we get a perfect track cold rain. The epo ridge -NAO is a cold pattern but dryer and sometimes we don’t get any big juiced up coastals. No pattern is 100% fool proof guaranteed to snow. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: As you are aware if you look at some of the research from Wes and Donald Sutherland regarding a deep negative Arctic oscillation its really only a matter of time until we score. And maybe big. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Northern stream hammer is 6 hours faster this gfs run. Speed it up more and get it out of there earlier and it might make a difference. Keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Northern stream hammer is 6 hours faster this gfs run. Speed it up more and get it out of there earlier and it might make a difference. Keep hope alive. It will be close enough to give us another cloudy day or 2 at least. Need more of those. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: It will be close enough to give us another cloudy day or 2 at least. Need more of those. @EastCoast NPZ thanks you 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: It will be close enough to give us another cloudy day or 2 at least. Need more of those. When was the last time we saw the sun? Maybe its foreshadowing days and days of clouds and cold after our HECS on January 12th 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 GFS is so close to a bomb for the 12th. Will be a fish storm as depicted. But I am loving the chances from the USAF storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: GFS is so close to a bomb for the 12th. Will be a fish storm as depicted. But I am loving the chances from the USAF storm. I was just about to post the same. I’d imagine the ensembles will have some good solutions mixed in with a 500 look like that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: GFS is so close to a bomb for the 12th. Will be a fish storm as depicted. But I am loving the chances from the USAF storm. Best 500mb implied snowstorm I've seen all year. It just doesn't happen at the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GFS is so close to a bomb for the 12th. Will be a fish storm as depicted. But I am loving the chances from the USAF storm. 500mb evolution is classic for a MECS for us. Phases and becomes neutral tilted near the MS Valley, gets negatively tilted thereafter. That bad boy is coming NW. 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 pretty close man....just need a quicker less sloppy phase--still too many s/w ruining the potential on this run at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: 500mb evolution is classic for a MECS for us. Phases and becomes neutral tilted near the MS Valley, gets negatively tilted thereafter. That bad boy is coming NW. 6 days out, everything has shift NW with time this winter. Lets see what the Euro has at 12z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 6 days out, everything has shift NW with time this winter. Lets see what the Euro has at 12z. the para looks awful for next week. Thank goodness the GFS is still the main model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I would of thought the surface outcome would of been better with this look. GREAT look!! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 the differences between 12z and 6z for the 15th storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Ji said: the para looks awful for next week. Thank goodness the GFS is still the main model Whichever GFS gives us the most snow is the GFS of choice lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Chris78 said: Whichever GFS gives us the most snow is the GFS of choice lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Whichever GFS gives us the most snow is the GFS of choice lol neither give us any snow technically for the 12z suite lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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