CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Our nearby source region is going to be a lot less torchy by mid month, courtesy of what appears to be a sustained -EPO. Currently much of Canada is awash in modified Pac air. By mid month it is largely scoured out and replaced by polar air. Beyond the 15th of the month still looks like the period where our chances for colder storms increases. As @WxUSAF has been saying, anything we may get before that time is gravy. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Looks good for a - NAM state. Best look might be between the 16 th and 25 th initially. Beyond that more difficult to determine. @poolz1 @MattHugo81 Some talk that downwelling of any E'lies may not make it to the trop, that's always poss, especially when the strat doesn't split...but...don't forget we don't have dominant W'lies in the trop anyway that need reversing. The trop continues to be pre-conditioned for blocking IMO. 5:10 AM · Jan 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 6z GFS has two snowstorms between the 15th and 20th. Yes, it’s an OP run at looooooong range but it coincides with the more favorable H5 looks we’ve been tracking for weeks. I’d expect to start to see threats pop up on the ensembles in that period beginning mid-month and beyond. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Nice signal for next weeks event on EPS. Classic Miller A pattern. 6z gefs looks pretty similar (at 500 and surface, don’t know about snow maps ). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Lol you all are nuts. Overnight runs look pretty damn exciting to me. Lots of potential still for the 11/12th event with some clear ensemble support. Active pattern after that with lots of cold air. Euro even made a big jump north for Friday. 14 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nice signal for next weeks event on EPS. Classic Miller A pattern. 6z gefs looks pretty similar (at 500 and surface, don’t know about snow maps ). On the 6z GEFS I see 8 or so members with frozen for the MA region, with a few nice hits. Pretty decent signal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Overrunning pattern. Feels like forever since we’ve had a good overrunning event but this would offer that potential. In this setup you need that bit of SE ridge or else we’re cold and dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 It should be vodka cold in southern canada and pretty sustained cold in the eastern U.S after Jan 15 if everything goes right. Seriously. We are probably on the cusp of a -AO, -NAO, -EPO and +PNA combo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Overrunning pattern. Feels like forever since we’ve had a good overrunning event but this would offer that potential. In this setup you need that bit of SE ridge or else we’re cold and dry. I love an overrunning event....all you see is a huge blob of precip to our SW heading our way and there’s 0 worry about temps/precip types/lack of precip. Something tells me we’ll be (or at least the crazy ones like me) doing many 1a Euro PBPs later this month. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, frd said: Looks good for a - NAM state. Best look might be between the 16 th and 25 th initially. Beyond that more difficult to determine. @poolz1 @MattHugo81 Some talk that downwelling of any E'lies may not make it to the trop, that's always poss, especially when the strat doesn't split...but...don't forget we don't have dominant W'lies in the trop anyway that need reversing. The trop continues to be pre-conditioned for blocking IMO. 5:10 AM · Jan 5, 2021 So wait, the SWE didn't play out as expected and no SPV split or wind reversal in the trop? Huh, go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Lol you all are nuts. Overnight runs look pretty damn exciting to me. Lots of potential still for the 11/12th event with some clear ensemble support. Active pattern after that with lots of cold air. Euro even made a big jump north for Friday. But, but, but....it isnt a perfect H5 look, 96 isn't repeating, and Ji still doesn't have 5 feet of digital snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 19 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: It should be vodka cold in southern canada and pretty sustained cold in the eastern U.S after Jan 15 if everything goes right. Seriously. We are probably on the cusp of a -AO, -NAO, -EPO and +PNA combo. While I agree, I think the tag team of PNA/EPO vs AO/NAO will only dance together for a brief period and not sustained. But as we know having them work together at all is a hard task. So yes, it looks like we are potentially seeing a rare and favorable albeit brief window where they all work together. We don't need perfection in the tellies from now thru mid March. This would work. Eta: my point was keep expectations low and don't expect a perfectly sustained H5 for the next 9 weeks...tho I think others have already done well at noting this also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Gee thanks Ralph, this thread has been full of unchecked optimism - glad you posted on the need to keep expectations low and keep it real in here... 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So wait, the SWE didn't play out as expected and no SPV split or wind reversal in the trop? Huh, go figure. Go figure what ? There was a reversal today. But, as @psuhoffman stated yesterday seems the event may be shorter lived and evolve in a different timeline/progression, than previously forecasted, not necessarily bad, but for us it may mean we need to score sooner, ie. Jan 12 th to say Feb 10 th. Speculation of course, but you can see some members begin to strengthen the vortex. I would focus on the good looks coming up and not worry, but interesting to follow the progression to see whether the NAM state radically changes in early to mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 36 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: It should be vodka cold in southern canada and pretty sustained cold in the eastern U.S after Jan 15 if everything goes right. Seriously. We are probably on the cusp of a -AO, -NAO, -EPO and +PNA combo. Problem is the SSWE is dumping all the vodka cold into the other side of the pole, into Eurasia 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, snowman19 said: Problem is the SSWE is dumping all the vodka cold into the other side of the pole, into Eurasia Yes that is true but it looks like a +PNA/-EPO combo is probable starting January 15 so it should drain the vodka cold air from Eurasia.. I am seeing that in the LR. The ensembles are setting up the best Pacific look we have seen in years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Who wants vodka cold and frozen mud? "Cool" works perfectly if you want snow more than single digit temps. 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Problem is the SSWE is dumping all the vodka cold into the other side of the pole, into Eurasia But, did you read the above posts, looks hopeful for us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Who wants vodka cold and frozen mud? "Cool" works perfectly if you want snow more than single digit temps. Yeah we aren't getting vodka cold, and we don't want/need it. We just want moderate cold, and that's exactly what the models are advertising mid to late month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: Yes that is true but it looks like a +PNA/-EPO combo is probable starting January 15 so it should drain the vodka cold air from Eurasia.. I am seeing that in the LR. The ensembles are setting up the best Pacific look we have seen in years. I’ll believe the -EPO when we actually see it happen in real time. How many times now over the last few winters...even as recently as the big -EPO period that was advertised in the long range back in November has it been a total fail? The models have been popping phantom -EPO’s in the long range for years now only to have them disappear and never verify. I can see a +PNA, sure, but -EPO? Color me real skeptical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, nj2va said: 6z GFS has two snowstorms between the 15th and 20th. Yes, it’s an OP run at looooooong range but it coincides with the more favorable H5 looks we’ve been tracking for weeks. I’d expect to start to see threats pop up on the ensembles in that period beginning mid-month and beyond. The @psuhoffman window is poking its head out now. Obviously some things are likely to change with the overall pattern (+/-) strength of the blocking over top, teleconnection bases, etc. One thing you want to see is established cold over the northern plains working east with time. The cold stretch being advertised is fairly robust beyond 1/16. This is obviously an important element to getting any fruitful winter precip for the area. This is all stemming from a very favorable upper air pattern over the west, bridging into Canada. And then it gets even better..... If you don't fancy this look, Idk what to tell you 15 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, frd said: Go figure what ? There was a reversal today. But, as @psuhoffman stated yesterday seems the event may be shorter lived and evolve in a different timeline/progression, than previously forecasted, not necessarily bad, but for us it may mean we need to score sooner, ie. Jan 12 th to say Feb 10 th. Speculation of course, but you can see some members begin to strengthen the vortex. I would focus on the good looks coming up and not worry, but interesting to follow the progression to see whether the NAM state radically changes in early to mid February. Was just pointing out this looks to be another case of ppl calling for the SWE to be the biggest most significant warming since sliced bread and now looking to be possibly not quite the extreme extent originally thought. Still needs expansive scientific study and is generally discussed in depth by many without really understanding how and why it happens (SWE) and what the actual impacts irt apparent weather in the trop results. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Problem is the SSWE is dumping all the vodka cold into the other side of the pole, into Eurasia Who wants vodka cold into the country which suppresses the storms ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 20 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Gee thanks Ralph, this thread has been full of unchecked optimism - glad you posted on the need to keep expectations low and keep it real in here... Also known as Ji. He's famous for it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who wants vodka cold into the country which suppresses the storms ? JB...he loves the Vodka Cold. Hey, isnt that a BINGO block? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Was just pointing out this looks to be another case of ppl calling for the SWE to be the biggest most significant warming since sliced bread and now looking to be possibly not quite the extreme extent originally thought. Any help in weakening the vortex is a plus. I try not to hype SSWEs, we know the play book, been over this script for the last 3 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who wants vodka cold into the country which suppresses the storms ? do you even read posts before posting? like 3 other people said that before you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, frd said: Any help in weakening the vortex is a plus. I try not to hype SSWEs, we know the play book, been over this script for the last 3 years. Your boy Webb thinks the SWE will cause another heavy hurricane season and another Nina next year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Who wants vodka cold and frozen mud? "Cool" works perfectly if you want snow more than single digit temps. I want 20” of snow with temps not getting above 20 for three weeks. Can we do it? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I want 20” of snow with temps not getting above 20 for three weeks. Can we do it? No. Next question. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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