nj2va Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Para GFS is north of the regular GFS. Gets light precip just south of EZF but surface temps are borderline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: the GFS has stronger energy for our Jan 11th miss Much more consolidated as well at 144 compared to 18z 150 at h5 level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Para GFS is north of the regular GFS. Gets light precip just south of EZF but surface temps are borderline. we have way more problems than just a north trend...its weak sauce---seems to peter out as it approaches us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: the GFS has stronger energy for our Jan 11th miss NS vort starting to phase in at 144. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 gfs might bring blue close to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: NS vort starting to phase in at 144. yep--it lost that closed supressing ULL near the Great Lakes from the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: NS vort starting to phase in at 144. Swing and a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 lol F us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: yep--it lost that closed supressing ULL near the Great Lakes from the 18z run It was a messy, convoluted partial phase. But check out 500 and all the vorts. GFS isn’t going to get this right 150 hours out (or even 15). I’m not mad at where we stand at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: we have way more problems than just a north trend...its weak sauce---seems to peter out as it approaches us The block is centered too far south...creates a shred factory and the system starts to wash out and gets absorbed into the trapped vortex to our northeast. Literally too much of a good thing. Little better antecedent cold and it would be a good setup for NC. You know this...and I know it’s hard to wait...but we typically score AFTER blocking tanks and is relaxing. This is one of the reasons why. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: It was a messy, convoluted partial phase. But check out 500 and all the vorts. GFS isn’t going to get this right 150 hours out (or even 15). I’m not mad at where we stand at this point. Was just coming to post this...Good luck with this set up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The block is centered too far south...creates a shred factory and the system starts to wash out and gets absorbed into the trapped vortex to our northeast. Literally too much of a good thing. Little better antecedent cold and it would be a good setup for NC. You know this...and I know it’s hard to wait...but we typically score AFTER blocking tanks and is relaxing. This is one of the reasons why. well every day we continue to waste striking out in this awful/awesome pattern---is a day closer to spring. We dont have this wide window to keep getting snow. it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: It was a messy, convoluted partial phase. But check out 500 and all the vorts. GFS isn’t going to get this right 150 hours out (or even 15). I’m not mad at where we stand at this point. We need the blocking to relax some...even there the “wall” in the flow is a bit too far south. If that backs off just a wee bit that’s a hit. Was a great setup for a moderate snow otherwise. This is just speculation based on current guidance pattern progression and history but all guidance has a weakening of the blocking around day 10 before strengthening it again toward day 15. That might be our best window around Jan 15 before maybe another after the next NAO flux. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 the problem @psuhoffmanis we are ending the first week of January and we have nothing to track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: well every day we continue to waste striking out in this awful/awesome pattern---is a day closer to spring. We dont have this wide window to keep getting snow. it But we don’t “keep striking out” this is still just the first storm threat in the pattern. It just feels like it because we waited forever and now you keep treating every model run like a “new threat” and feeling like a while new miss when it doesn’t get better when in reality it’s just the same storm you keep torturing yourself over every 6 hours! The Jan 12 storm is still out of range but trended better fwiw. I think that has a better shot but in sticking with my original call from a week ago that the 15-20 and maybe even after is our most likely window to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 the para gives us blue but this looks like a sucky storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: the para gives us blue but this looks like a sucky storm It’s 162 hours out. Trends and generalities are all that matter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Ji said: the problem @psuhoffmanis we are ending the first week of January and we have nothing to track The problem is expectations were too early. Dude, when did you hear anybody (other than DT's slightly early call) say anything about early January being the period to watch? Now either I missed something...or the thinking has been mid-January on for good potential. The blocking is already on the doorstep...as this run of the GFS shows for the 11th @psuhoffman the suppression on that run is indicative of that, right? And Ji, tell me...how many moderate or big storms have we had before the middle of January in our history? Answer: Not many (got two December big hits, and one early January--that being 1996). So even in our best years this is kinda how things happen. It is far too early to panic (although I know you do anyway, lol). So no, not having anything to track by now isn't a "problem" imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 well every day we continue to waste striking out in this awful/awesome pattern---is a day closer to spring. We dont have this wide window to keep getting snow. itI honestly hate to feed the beast by responding to your weenie tirades, but as others have stated, isn’t anything before Jan 15th low probability anyways? As the GFS has demonstrated not wanting to show blue over us (even with sub 540 heights and bountiful precip), before the cold air is established when the PAC becomes more favorable, it seems like our axis of snowfall would be incredibly thin anyways. And besides, our prime climo for snowfall is Jan 15-Feb 15 anywho. Digital snow can be wonderful, but maybe the reason that the models correct and shift snow away from us in the med range in patterns like this is because.. history suggests that the pattern currently in place isn’t ripe for a substantial snowfall in our area, at least yet?? . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I just for once want to steal a storm in the last 48 hours like it happens to us all the time 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I honestly hate to feed the beast by responding to your weenie tirades, but as others have stated, isn’t anything before Jan 15th low probability anyways? As the GFS has demonstrated not wanting to show blue over us (even with sub 540 heights and bountiful precip), before the cold air is established when the PAC becomes more favorable, it seems like our axis of snowfall would be incredibly thin anyways. And besides, our prime climo for snowfall is Jan 15-Feb 15 anywho. Digital snow can be wonderful, but maybe the reason that the models correct and shift snow away from us in the med range in patterns like this is because.. history suggests that the pattern currently in place isn’t ripe for a substantial snowfall in our area, at least yet?? .But central North Carolina to Southern Virginia is? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: I just for once want to steal a storm in the last 48 hours like it happens to us all the time 48 hours before the Jan 2019 storm it looked like 2-4” and you got about a foot. It happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Uber long range GFS buries the energy out west. We need that to eject otherwise it’s all NS miller b city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Ggem ejects it and is setting up something just past day 10. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 But central North Carolina to Southern Virginia is?Based on history, yes. Jan 30 2010 happened right as the blocking was established, no? Of course that gave us a great snowfall because it was a juiced STJ Nino system, but that bullseyed North Carolina and Southern Virginia anyways. Even in March of 2018 we were teased with the 12-13 system that gave SW VA some snow and redeveloped and crushed New England. Even there we had to wait another 10 days to get our storm which would’ve been a MECS/SECS if it had happened a month earlier. My point? Chill out a bit, we’ll get our pattern, and in prime snow climo I wouldn’t have it any other way. Judging by how you claim to like digital snow almost as much as snow on the ground, you still should prefer long range tracking like what is coming up exponentially better than a shutout pattern like last year. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 GFS setting up a big storm in the super long range. Plenty of blue over us. PSU fringed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, jaydreb said: GFS setting up a big storm in the super long range. Fringed. Major super Uber fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 0z Euro for the late week threat, FWIW. Here’s the 12z Euro at the same time. A bit wonky in precip, but a definite jump North with the lp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 And Euro wants no part of the next week storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 0z GEFS looks decent for a little something early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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