Kevin Reilly Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Hmm how about help from a southeast ridge to bump the storm up the coast? The southeast ridge isn’t just going to disappear from flexing its muscles. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, yoda said: I think as others have said in this thread that if that h5 piece is further north or doesn't exist then this will come further north... though if there is enough cold air for it is another question. Haven't done a deep dive into 2mT or 850 temps on the 12z UKMET Every time we need a sw in the ns to go south or stay south, they go north without fail. Watch this one go to Jacksonville, straight from Quebec lol 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said: Hmm how about help from a southeast ridge to bump the storm up the coast? The southeast ridge is just going to disappear from flexing its muscles. Thoughts? No way to get a SER with a ridge in the west, a double humped one at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, yoda said: I think as others have said in this thread that if that h5 piece is further north or doesn't exist then this will come further north... though if there is enough cold air for it is another question. Haven't done a deep dive into 2mT or 850 temps on the 12z UKMET I think it all depends on that piece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 This is a tricky little setup. This little piece that’s killing us doesn’t even exist on land yet and then it gets kicked south by the pinwheel over Labrador that won’t form until Wednesday and it forms from the energy that created yesterday’s rain. Really interesting but I would think really hard to nail down from this far out. It wouldn’t take much for the scenario I just described to not happen at all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, nj2va said: That’s a pretty good shift especially for the southern part of the forum. I’m certainly not writing off this weekend’s threat. Yeah, I won’t write it off, just not that enthusiastic either. We will see where this is by Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Yeah, I won’t write it off, just not that enthusiastic either. We will see where this is by Wednesday. Well its almost time to start extrapolating the NAM, so buckle up! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Well its almost time to start extrapolating the NAM, so buckle up! Our friend is there NW of ME. Extrapolate away! 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: Well its almost time to start extrapolating the NAM, so buckle up! If only we had the DGEX still 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 Well the SE forum approved of the 00z 84 hr NAM at h5... so... yay? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Well the SE forum approved of the 00z 84 hr NAM at h5... so... yay? Lol They're showing snow maps from the nam that doesn't show any snow...I don't get it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Eps with a bump north . No surprise...following the op. No way especially if I lived in DC and south would I look past The weekend system. I much rather need a north trend with 100 hours to go then a south trend .....1000 times over . Just saw the Navgem . Wow...its wayyyyy north lol Over the past 5 years or so I’ve observed often guidance shifts south with east coast storms in the 3-7 day range before shifting north again slightly the final 72 hours. But the north shift isn’t this huge hundreds of miles one like in the 90s and 2000s. We want this to get a little closer then it currently is by the 72 hour threshold to have a legit chance. Still time. Navgem is interesting but it’s way off the consensus on a few things. It’s weaker with the 50/50 and washes that northern SW out completely so there is no pinwheel effect holding the 50/50 in and it escapes in time allowing the storm to climb the coast. It’s also a lot weaker with the southern cutoff and has higher heights all across the east too which is why it’s a warmer solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Well the SE forum approved of the 00z 84 hr NAM at h5... so... yay? Lol Congrats GA?? Lets start the 0z suite off with less confluence and the NAM did that at least. Baby steps from now until Fri... CHO jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Congrats GA?? Lets start the 0z suite off with less confluence and the NAM did that at least. Baby steps from now until Fri... CHO jackpot! It happened in 2018 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 26 minutes ago, LP08 said: Our friend is there NW of ME. Extrapolate away! SW of the 18z GFS position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Yeah, celebrate the NAM at 84 hours. What could go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Time to extrapolate the CRAS? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I like over-running with nice cold air mass overhead 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 00z ICON gets accumulated snow to RIC for Friday looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 0z gfs is south and a miss for all the forum. That pesky sw coming out of Canada seems real so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 GFS is weaker with the s/w + Quebec kicker so precip doesn’t get north of the NC/VA border. It’s basically rain for the SE except in the NC mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 37 minutes ago, frd said: I like over-running with nice cold air mass overhead its always at the end of the EPS..never at the begining 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: GFS is weaker with the s/w + Quebec kicker so precip doesn’t get north of the NC/VA border. It’s basically rain for the SE except in the NC mountains. ensembles always seem to give hope.... before the OP Crushes them even worse than the prior run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: 0z gfs is south and a miss for all the forum. That pesky sw coming out of Canada seems real so far. of course it is---we only get a north trend when it takes us out of snow into sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 48 minutes ago, Scraff said: Time to extrapolate the CRAS? -NAO is too far east lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 they really screwed up the GFS. In the winter of 18-19, the PARA was giving us like 20 inches of snow a week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: GFS is weaker with the s/w + Quebec kicker so precip doesn’t get north of the NC/VA border. It’s basically rain for the SE except in the NC mountains. i bet the ukmet will be the most south solution during the 00z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: they really screwed up the GFS. In the winter of 18-19, the PARA was giving us like 20 inches of snow a week And how did that work out for you? I am really beginning to believe you are just here for the digital snow and not the real thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: And how did that work out for you? I am really beginning to believe you are just here for the digital snow and not the real thing. ive already made that pretty clear several times....digital snow excites more than the real thing with the exception of Heavy snow falling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 the GFS has stronger energy for our Jan 11th miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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