Ji Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 euro wont budge it only seems to budge to take snow away from us. When its cutters or supressor--its rock solid. Extremely frustrating 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Good. I still feel optimistic about where this is heading and think our chances increase the further into this pattern we go. Perhaps peaking around the 20th depending on whether the blocking breaks or recycles. But unlike some I totally get @Ji. I feel what he says in my tormented unfiltered inner weenie soul. I just try to get a grip and apply a logic filter before posting. Most of the time! But it’s frustrating when we’ve had so little snow lately to have to wait. But I do think this would require a pretty monumental epic fail not to get at least one hit from this pattern. Yup agree on all points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I'm not even focused on Friday (never was, really). Time to watch is afterward for me...I view Friday as a possible starting date for tracking (unless the 11th/12th deal works out...how's that looking, btw?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It does not look like this SSW will help us wrt arctic cold. That seems directed to Asia. But it likely will favor continued weakness on the TPV and that should help is wrt blocking. We will just have to make due with domestic cold, same as 2010. I wonder if people realize how mild we would have been straight through that whole snowmageddon period had the storms not hit. We had one decent transient shot of cold in late Jan but after that we would have had highs near 50 had those storms not hit. Even up here all the snow from the Jan 30 and Feb 2 storms melted by the time Feb 6 happened. And even with 50” of snow otg highs were near 40 up here immediately after those 2 HECS. It was not a cold pattern at all. Would have been avg temps if not for the snowcover. Maybe even above avg. Yes that is true, the brunt of the arctic cold seems to gather in Eurasia. The site called stratobserve. Com has cool animations of everything related to SSWEs. It did change course recently and targets the other side of the pole with deep cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 If that one piece is being modeled incorrectly then Friday changes big time. We just need that northern stream piece to disappear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 This whole Stratospheric Warming Event is gonna be one of the most overhyped bust in memory (for the eastern U.S.) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It does not look like this SSW will help us wrt arctic cold. That seems directed to Asia. But it likely will favor continued weakness on the TPV and that should help is wrt blocking. We will just have to make due with domestic cold, same as 2010. I wonder if people realize how mild we would have been straight through that whole snowmageddon period had the storms not hit. We had one decent transient shot of cold in late Jan but after that we would have had highs near 50 had those storms not hit. Even up here all the snow from the Jan 30 and Feb 2 storms melted by the time Feb 6 happened. And even with 50” of snow otg highs were near 40 up here immediately after those 2 HECS. It was not a cold pattern at all. Would have been avg temps if not for the snowcover. Maybe even above avg. That’s interesting. We had a good 6-8” of snow everywhere here by Feb 6. Of course we got 7” on Jan 30 and 6” on Feb 2 so hanging on to half of it wasn’t hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 1011mb SLP just south of TX in MX at 144 on 12z EURO... lets see if it keeps the 00z run idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, yoda said: 1011 SLP just west of S TX at 144 on 12z EURO... lets see if it keeps the 00z run idea who cares dude-its just going to find a way to collapse right before it shows blue on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: 1011 SLP just south of TX in MX at 144 on 12z EURO... lets see if it keeps the 00z run idea I hope so for the sanity of JakkelWx. LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 SLP just south of Mobile, AL at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 800 mile placement difference between the UKMET and ECM at 96hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 monster 1014 high--i mean low off Carolina Coast at 192 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, Ji said: monster 1014 high--i mean low off Carolina Coast at 192 supressed of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ji said: who cares dude-its just going to find a way to collapse right before it shows blue on us Gotta love how that 1007mb low in the gulf becomes a 1014mb low over E NC. Thanks confluence zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, Amped said: Gotta love how that 1007mb low in the gulf becomes a 1014mb low over E NC. Thanks confluence zone. i feel like we keep getting fastballs over the plate and swing and miss Ryan Howard style 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 just a tragic tragic 12z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 hours ago, JakkelWx said: The GFS is one big rainstorm on the 16th. But the evolution sounds like complete bullshit to me. K cool. Thanks for the hot take on the day 12 operational model surface map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Goofy 500mb evolution on the euro. Close enough for D7-8. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Goofy 500mb evolution on the euro. Close enough for D7-8. they are all close enough. Thats the problem. Close only counts in horseshoes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: just a tragic tragic 12z suite Panic Room is about to get as busy as a Philly Wal Mart bread & milk run before a blizzard. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: ....we will have MANY threats between now and mid-feurbary. Again, thanks for the hot take. Not sure how the forum is going to survive when you move to FL. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: i feel like we keep getting fastballs over the plate and swing and miss Ryan Howard style I like the setup though. Plenty of time for it to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: just a tragic tragic 12z suite I think you should unload...it's time man it's time tell everyone on here how you feel...let it go bro....bring the chaos. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: they are all close enough. Thats the problem. Close only counts in horseshoes Do it man...use this place as your sounding board...you've got all of our attention you're just saying what we all feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Do it man...use this place as your sounding board...you've got all of our attention you're just saying what we all feel you havent seen anything yet....im in my Calm mode haha 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I bumped the seasonal futility thread, just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 look at this Low at 240...would be supressed for areas like Lousiana 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Giving up based on...one event? Now I could understand if the longwave pattern wasn't looking as favorable in the LR, or if we weren't still progged to get blocking, but...panicking just because of the weekend deal? Don't quite get that...look ahead, folks! Better off letting the weekend go and letting it be a surprise if it works out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: look at this Low at 240...would be supressed for areas like Lousiana What a block! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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