yoda Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 I did like the 00z GEFS h5 though... pretty weenie look IMO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 @griteater in the SE forum on why Euro moved off NC coast and didn't give us a hit this run (he explained it well so I borrowed it to post in here) 1 minute ago, griteater said: It looks similar to GFS v16 at 500mb, just not as strong. Spoke revolving around the 50/50 low drops due south into NY/VT, and that collapses the amplitude of the height field off the Mid-Atlantic coast, so the wave just slides east off NC. Who knows which model is correct, but the west to east slider like GFS v16 and Euro are what many in NC east of the Mtns and Foothills would want, and the more amped CMC/UKMet is what the Mtns/N Foothills/into VA would want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Euro has snow into Houston and Western LA at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 Snow knocking on door at DCA at 198 on 00z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Euro is a very nice storm for us on 1/12. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 4-8" storm on the Euro for most on the 12th... except for those west of the i81 corridor 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 EPS says don't give up yet quite yet. Still several days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 As of now this is looking like a true southern slider. Outside of extreme lower S MD over to Salisbury, those never work out for the rest of us. We need that low to at least turn the corner a bit and gain some latitude as it is exiting the coast. Whether that can occur or not largely depends on what happens with the energy rotating down in eastern Canada under the block. It doesn't appear like it will be able to get out in front/out of the way in time, but maybe it trends a bit further west and partially phases sooner. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 GFS Para with a nice shift north. 6z and 00z for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: As of now this is looking like a true southern slider. Outside of extreme lower S MD over to Salisbury, those never work out for the rest of us. We need that low to at least turn the corner a bit and gain some latitude as it is exiting the coast. Whether that can occur or not largely depends on what happens with the energy rotating down in eastern Canada under the block. It doesn't appear like it will be able to get out in front/out of the way in time, but maybe it trends a bit further west and partially phases sooner. Of course things trend shitty overnight. First we had a gazillion rainstorms now we have suppression. We can't win shit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 With models obviously struggling with this setup, this is one of those times when a decent snow probably pops up with little lead time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: EPS says don't give up yet quite yet. Still several days out. Yeah, from my quick glance around, EPS definitely moved toward us. And the 11/12th event looked pretty good on some guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Another stellar run of the 6z GFS op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 hours ago, yoda said: 4-8" storm on the Euro for most on the 12th... except for those west of the i81 corridor After the 11/12 th the period near the 16 th has my interest. As you pointed out previously, the GEFS looks great and the Pac further improves. Analog guidance backs up the threat periods. I am ready for some snow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Another stellar run of the 6z GFS op Good thing Ji is asleep. No blue over us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Another stellar run of the 6z GFS op Sure. For everywhere but this area. Great pattern though lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 This is the most digital snow the GFS has ever given us. The white/blank areas are 48''+ 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The 6z Euro does have that NS shortwave a bit further southwest at the end of the run fwiw. eta- for those who don't know, 6z only goes out to hour 90, which is 0z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: This is the most digital snow the GFS has ever given us. The white/blank areas are 48''+ Best pattern since '96. Feet and feet of blocking. We're all gonna be exhausted from shoveling all that pattern by April. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 @CAPE. Can you post the 6z GEFS snow mean, I am hearing it went up, possibly in a significant manner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Best pattern since '96. Feet and feet of blocking. We're all gonna be exhausted from shoveling all that pattern by April. This post would prob make more sense in April. It’s only January 4th and the “best pattern since 96’” is still at least a week away. Other than 2009, there has almost always been a dearth of snow prior to January in the DC metro (at least in the past thirty years I’ve lived here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, frd said: @CAPE. Can you post the 6z GEFS snow mean, I am hearing it went up, possibly in a significant manner. I dont want to steal WB WIll's thunder. It looks the usual climo-ish meh. EPS is a little better, esp for central/western NC and VA. Pretty strong indication of the southern slider. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: I dont want to steal WB WIll's thunder. It looks the usual climo-ish meh. EPS is a little better, esp for central/western NC and VA. Pretty strong indication of the southern slider. No worries about thunder stealing...crazy work week on tap with everyone back...WB 6Z GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Here is 6z euro. Look at how that little lobe almost becomes an extension of the 50/50 and squashes the flow east. Right now euro and gfs consistent with showing that, but Ukie and cmc don’t really have that feature. Since a phase doesn’t seem likely root for that feature to be as for north or non existent as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: I dont want to steal WB WIll's thunder. It looks the usual climo-ish meh. EPS is a little better, esp for central/western NC and VA. Pretty strong indication of the southern slider. Thanks, time to let the pattern evolve, but It does look Meh..... However, I refuse to go to the dark side. Still waiting on the 6 inch mean for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 after all the posts of 500 mb driving factors lining up to give us a chance of snow, there is mostly 1 or 2 factors that don't and we end up with little or nothing. That is the story of winter in the MA. And that doesn't count the storms we get that aren't forecast correctly, like the blizzard of 66 the for 5 days, wasn't going to affect us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 NAVGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I saw that . It's also notable that the primary energy is further north at 90 . Any gain in latitude with that is a good thing with this probably not turning the corner much 6z EPS is a tick further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Dudnt know if you saw my previous post about the Eps eastern outlier members are gone Subtle but step in the right direction here with the NS piece trying to drop in/phase earlier imo. Compare it to 0z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Can yall show the EPS 6Z , compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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