LP08 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Well...the ICON has no storm for this weekend. totally lost the southern Sw and buried it in the gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Well...the ICON has no storm for this weekend. totally lost the southern Sw and buried it in the gulf. Thought we wanted that storm to move into the 50/50 for next week (11th/12th)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just some subtle changes at h5 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Thought we wanted that storm to move into the 50/50 for next week (11th/12th)? Seems the problems with all of this is too many SWs all over the place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Seems the problems with all of this is too many SWs all over the place. And the icon is all over the place with them. Just toggle it’s last three runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And the icon is all over the place with them. Just toggle it’s last three runs It’s going to be havoc with so many. The @WxUSAF storm looking good though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I think the ICON is an awful model so I don’t sweat anything it shows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think the ICON is an awful model so I don’t sweat anything it shows. It’s basically as worthless as the NAVGEM... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Icon says let’s sacrifice the 8th for the 11th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Icon says let’s sacrifice the 8th for the 11th . We fail often when we do the sacrifice storm 1 for storm 2 thing. It's somewhere in the weenie handbook between hunting epic patterns that are a near-guarantee to produce and storms manufacturing their own cold with marginal antecedent airmasses. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 FWIW, the Quebec s/w is much further north on the 00z GFS through 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Blue eludes us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 0z GFS the clown map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 CMC looks better! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 CMC 0z nothing crazy but warning level snow for some. 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 You can tell just bad OP GFS is right now. It cuts the 12th threat which is impossible with all the “red” (blocking) on top. Zero chance it cuts with that look at 500. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: You can tell just bad OP GFS is right now. It cuts the 12th threat which is impossible with all the “red” (blocking) on top. Zero chance it cuts with that look at 500. The gfs has been a wreck BUT the reason it cuts there is that it was so anemic with the system on the 9th that it fails to deepen enough of a 50/50 feature and a lot of ridging pops over the northeast. If that happens something could cut. Remember it’s as much the 50/50 that prevents that as the -NAO. However, guidance was doing that for this week 5 days ago and now we might see a storm suppressed to our south! It’s probably BS but the physics on the model aren’t junk. It won’t show something that is technically a physical impossibility. It might go off on a tangent and depict a faulty pattern evolution due to biases or misrepresentation of a feature though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I hate this ****ing storm so much now 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 @Ji check out the lengths it had to go to avoid showing blue here!!! 988 off the coast, 534 thickness on Jan 16 and....snow nazi say no blue for you...you come back 6 hour 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 [mention=514]Ji[/mention] check out the lengths it had to go to avoid showing blue here!!! 988 off the coast, 534 thickness on Jan 16 and....snow nazi say no blue for you...you come back 6 hour It’s becoming as absurd now as how the eagles played tonight . Geez . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 My money is on UKMET model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 [mention=514]Ji[/mention] check out the lengths it had to go to avoid showing blue here!!! 988 off the coast, 534 thickness on Jan 16 and....snow nazi say no blue for you...you come back 6 hour Then 2 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 I'll take the 00z runs of the CMC and the UKIE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I'll take the 00z runs of the CMC and the UKIE lolWhat did para show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 14 minutes ago, Ji said: 30 minutes ago, yoda said: I'll take the 00z runs of the CMC and the UKIE lol What did para show? Nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 UKMET is way different at 500mb and similar to Nov 1953 in concept. The ridge/block over the great lakes hops over the ULL and joins with the ridge building offshore.. It impedes the storms progress,. but isn't strong enough to force the coastal back into Upstate NY like 1953. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, Amped said: UKMET is way different at 500mb and similar to Nov 1953 in concept. The ridge/block over the great lakes hops over the ULL and joins with the ridge building offshore.. It impedes the storms progress,. but isn't strong enough to force the coastal back into Upstate NY like 1953. Do you just pick random storm dates? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Do you just pick random storm dates? 1953 was unique with that feature. I'm not saying it makes a good analog though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Updated map from NOAA. Now showing Slight Winter Storm threat for most of Virginia and D.C is also included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 Euro is a southern slider... good for NW NC into maybe the rest of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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