WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Isn’t it all dynamically driven as shown? I don’t see a high or arctic air in place. There’s a 1028mb high literally on top of us with sub 534 thicknesses leading into it. On January 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: I think the NE thread is neurotic and then I come here and I realize I have it good near BOX. Lol Now I don't get that...why would your thread would be neurotic? You guys live in NEW ENGLAND. Average snowfall is what...30-40"? So why? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Now I don't get that...why would your thread would be neurotic? You guys live in NEW ENGLAND. Average snowfall is what...30-40"? So why? Lol That's exactly it. All weenies are emotional, but you all have less, so the highs and the lows are more extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 There’s a 1028mb high literally on top of us with sub 534 thicknesses leading into it. On January 12th. Im telling you man. The model just refuses to put blue over us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Isn’t it all dynamically driven as shown? I don’t see a high or arctic air in place. Remember what we said last year, depending on models to get it right outside of five or six days is fools gold. Too many moving parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’ll take that outcome for the 12th. GFS magically runs out of cold air, but I don’t buy that. Looks a lot like euro. I’ll give Ji one thing...he is right it’s getting a little crazy how despite a perfect h5 look on all the ensembles op runs in general want to shotgun snow all around us but for the most part we aren’t seeing any flush hits. I bet that changes soon. But it’s odd so far. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’ll give Ji one thing...he is right it’s getting a little crazy how despite a perfect h5 look on all the ensembles op runs in general want to shotgun snow all around us but for the most part we aren’t seeing any flush hits. I bet that changes soon. But it’s odd so far. A handful of days ago there was literally NOTHING on the models through D15. Now we’re getting some, but still ending up with lots of near misses or disjointed outcomes. Think we’ll see some monster digital snow occasionally at least starting this week. EPS had several big dogs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just dropping in to post this nugget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: A handful of days ago there was literally NOTHING on the models through D15. Now we’re getting some, but still ending up with lots of near misses or disjointed outcomes. Think we’ll see some monster digital snow occasionally at least starting this week. EPS had several big dogs. Agree...I do thing the pretty meh airmass hurts the digital snow since we don’t get those storms with HUGE swaths of heavy snow. Without the cold you don’t get that big expansive WAA snow shield to the north so the target zone is more narrow for each storm. Basically it’s deform or bust lol. That decreases the chances of nice clown maps. As we improve the thermals we likely start seeing more pretty colors. I also have noticed over the years that at range operationals go off the reservation wrt aligning the synoptic results with the longwave pattern. I don’t know why but often once you get inside 150 hours or so suddenly they morph into what climo says that pattern should look like. Hence the storm Friday suddenly went from cutter to suppressed as it got close to that threshold. My take on Friday is it’s mostly about that Quebec nonsense. I think if that trends better this comes north but if that really is going to dive in on top it’s game over up here. Someone brought it up but that is similar to what happened in Dec 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 @Ji It doesn't make it north of Savanna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Here's our digital snow! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Really dude? You had to ruin the fun. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS for Friday.... coffin not completely nailed shut. Been awhile since it looks like either snow or nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: A handful of days ago there was literally NOTHING on the models through D15. Now we’re getting some, but still ending up with lots of near misses or disjointed outcomes. Think we’ll see some monster digital snow occasionally at least starting this week. EPS had several big dogs. Yeah and we knew the airmass was going to be a struggle until at least the 10th. With the blocking a moderate wet snow bomb is possible, but that is still a low probability at this point. Anyway, signs of some legit cold getting very close by mid month, and h5 looks spectacular. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 ^Compare that to what we will have for later this week- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 HM thinks this first storm gets suppressed but still bullish after 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nice shift in HH eps for Friday. Less interference from ns . Control as well . Nice hit i95 and east Lots of members west of the mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Control is what we want . You can see the ns sw is north of NY well out of our way. Real close to a big hit . Nice hit as is for i95 east @CAPEpummeled lol I'll count on the proverbial last minute north shift to get 6 inch + I like how we have basically lost any precip type issues and the only issue now is getting precip in the area. Lots of very nice hits in the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Control is what we want . You can see the ns sw is north of NY well out of our way. Real close to a big hit . Nice hit as is for i95 east Yeah , looks good, but when, if ever, has the control made a trend change and the op and ensembles followed? Regardless, still have a ways to go on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Curious, what does the control do for the 12th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Curious, what does the control do for the 12th? 18z EPS only goes out 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Slightly offtopic, but how does Weatherbell compare to Pivotal? I cannot find a list of what plots Weatherbell provides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, thunderman said: Slightly offtopic, but how does Weatherbell compare to Pivotal? I cannot find a list of what plots Weatherbell provides. here’s a screenshot from the model menu. I ditched Weathermodels because I couldn’t deal with the interface and the delay in data. Pleased with Weatherbell for the most part. I haven’t tried Pivotal Plus but the + to Pivotal Plus is likely the Euro soundings that WxBell doesn’t have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: here’s a screenshot from the model menu. I ditched Weathermodels because I couldn’t deal with the interface and the delay in data. Pleased with Weatherbell for the most part. I haven’t tried Pivotal Plus but the + to Pivotal Plus is likely the Euro soundings that WxBell doesn’t have. The Euro soundings is almost a deal breaker for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Progressing nicely . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Right at the cusp. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Interesting read from Matt. So, basically a temporary relaxation of the Atlantic blocking due to changes in the AAM tendencies / subsequent fall in the AAM. Matt states this is only temporary, if it were to occur. It will be of interest to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: wrong thread How could you! Shameful. Learn to post in the right thread smfh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: How could you! Shameful. Learn to post in the right thread smfh Haha. Not only the wrong thread but the wrong board. The post was meant for the Washington Football Team forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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