Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: We are gonna miss the late week deal to the south, and the next week storm will rain here, while NW of fall line folks get snow. Book it. That would be a very nina-ish result (snowhole), would it not? Would love to get in on one of those storms, but...as long as we have something to track beyond that...I can be okay with it, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 25 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So i'm curious would you have been able to write that up WITHOUT the slightly west of ideal part? Asking for Ji If you READ the post... the point is WITH a block that ridge location is TOTALLY FINE. Maybe "Ji" should stop combing through my posts to pick out words that when taken out of context can be misconstrued as negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Agreed. Standard caveat is that folks should always have low expectations going into this and be happy with what we get. To see this in a La Nina pattern is pretty amazing. It sure is nice to not be looking at just a 5-7 day window here. That D13 EPS panel basically looks the same at D15 and we have 2-3 threats to track in a very good pattern just through D10. The law of averages increases my expectations more than usual here. Although, I do have the ability to happily go about my normal life if we do fail. Id rather alter my perspective and enjoy the highs of expectations....its just snow. (ducks) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: That would be a very nina-ish result (snowhole), would it not? Would love to get in on one of those storms, but...as long as we have something to track beyond that...I can take it, lol Yeah I am not hunting a KU over the next 10 days. No snow yet here this winter and barely an inch last winter- just want some snow. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: Eps looks solid for 12th. Because of what Ji said, if we lost we can get as high as a 3rd pick in a really good draft. If we win we can fall to as low as 10 Atlanta is locked in at 3. Bengals are ahead of you. Best you can do is 5- IF Texans beat Tenn. otherwise you are 6 with a loss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Miami has the Texans pick, sorry for the banter. Our region looks to be getting two storms whether or not it's regionwide or not is the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, southmdwatcher said: Miami has the Texans pick Correct. Still ahead of Eagles if Texans lose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: tragic run setting up here. This thing is slowly slipping away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 that run wasnt good for anybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: that run wasnt good for anybody phasing is going to occur just west of England on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 46 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Hey, I'm in the MA thread! This probably works out better for yall than for us in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: tragic run setting up here. This thing is slowly slipping away HH is a DISASTER. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: Hey, I'm in the MA thread! This probably works out better for yall than for us in NE. You’re being totally unreasonable. Thankfully we have the likes of Ji to keep us grounded. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 GFS 18Z was a big old F u to everyone in VA points north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: HH is a DISASTER. we may lose the PARA too...we are going to have about 20 inches taken away from us from all the combined models at HH. And the redskins will probably lose tonight 20-13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: HH is a DISASTER. Look at that hammer diving down out of Ontario. No way the storm can gain latitude with that. That was less pronounced several runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 That shortwave in Quebec just suppresses the flow. It’s moved about 300 miles south over the last 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 hours ago, Ji said: when the only model showing snow for us is the Euro...its almost always wrong. when the only model showing supressed for is is the Euro--its almost always right. Hate to admit how true this post is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 I think the NE thread is neurotic and then I come here and I realize I have it good near BOX. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: we may lose the PARA too...we are going to have about 20 inches taken away from us from all the combined models at HH. And the redskins will probably lose tonight 20-13 Tragic indeed. I don't mind that last part so much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 folks it simply does not want to snow in our region.....this is what we get for having 2010, the storm of 2011, the winters of 2013-14, 14-15 and the 40 inch blizzard of 2016. It will probably snow here again but it may be much longer than you can imagine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, Negnao said: Look at that hammer diving down out of Ontario. No way the storm can gain latitude with that. That was less pronounced several runs ago. Yeah that's been a problem. That vort dropping in from that far east is going to be tough. Blocking FTL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Man I was really counting on a snow day tomorrow the gfs has been handling this flawlessly without being jumpy at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That shortwave in Quebec just suppresses the flow. It’s moved about 300 miles south over the last 3 runs. Wasn't it two years ago that a pv filament or extension suppressed a snowstorm to Virginia and North Carolina. We were originally thinking a foot around here. And that was pretty much it for the winter. A real bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 You would think there would be a slow step down fork cutters but no....we go straight to suppression . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ji said: we may lose the PARA too...we are going to have about 20 inches taken away from us from all the combined models at HH. And the redskins will probably lose tonight 20-13 Ji keeps us grounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ji said: phasing is going to occur just west of England on that run It was trending that way for a few runs...but the 12z overcame the further south H5 track with a more potent surface system...but if you look at the last 24 hours of runs there is a clear trend south with the upper low track. That NS SW is diving down WAY too far east to do us any good at all. But there are a lot of moving parts still and they will go through some changes still. We need the flow over the top to relax just a bit and get the NS to dive in further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ji said: folks it simply does not want to snow in our region.....this is what we get for having 2010, the storm of 2011, the winters of 2013-14, 14-15 and the 40 inch blizzard of 2016. It will probably snow here again but it may be much longer than you can imagine If you are referring to the "were due index" we already paid the piper for those good years...the bad ones in the last 11 years actually already neutralized the snow means to the point where if we don't get a decent total this year we will end up below the long term averages from BEFORE 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 I’ll take that outcome for the 12th. GFS magically runs out of cold air, but I don’t buy that. Looks a lot like euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’ll take that outcome for the 12th. GFS magically runs out of cold air, but I don’t buy that. Looks a lot like euro. Isn’t it all dynamically driven as shown? I don’t see a high or arctic air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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