AdamHLG Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 We better do this soon or the sun angle posts will start appearing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Worst feeling ever is tracking a pattern and not a storm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 NYE looks like a repeat of Christmas Eve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 NYE looks like a repeat of Christmas EveWorst feeling ever. We are an embarrassment to winter 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 GFS looks like it’s trying hard to build a coastal after NYE but it’s too late. Still a really different look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 GFS still has that Jan 3 low that the Euro showed and lost but it's a good bit off the coast. Jan 4 2018 redux anyone?? edit: Ninja'd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Looks epic for the fish 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 15 minutes ago, Chris78 said: NYE looks like a repeat of Christmas Eve I’ll take the Euro OP’s depiction over the GFS, please. Pops a low on the southern part of the front and keeps the mountains frozen. That depiction would keep western areas outside the mountains in the game for frozen too vs the GFS cold chasing precip front setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Many are looking past NYD time period and I personally waiting at least a couple more days. Oh. Yea. Patience is important. 100 times better than last year though. If blocking continues to show up top we will should have our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, nj2va said: I’ll take the Euro OP’s depiction over the GFS, please. Pops a low on the southern part of the front and keeps the mountains frozen. That depiction would keep western areas outside the mountains in the game for frozen too vs the GFS cold chasing precip front setup. A few runs from time to time has shown a low developing enough south of us to deliver some snow after the initial rain. Hoping that starts showing up again on future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Looks epic for the fish And New England 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: A few runs from time to time has shown a low developing enough south of us to deliver some snow after the initial rain. Hoping that starts showing up again on future runs. Yeah, unfortunately the EPS wasn’t biting on the OP’s idea. I counted a handful of solutions that suggested something even close to what the OP was depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yeah, unfortunately the EPS wasn’t biting on the OP’s idea. I counted a handful of solutions that suggested something even close to what the OP was depicting. Neither was the GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Shame it is way out there but as many have already stated...patience. This year is different with the NAO/AO looks and the AO has already established itself in negative and the NAO is in short range now. This is not a bad look AT ALL: If we can get the PAC to look even remotely close to that we will be in business. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Definitely a coastal signal this Gefs run around....you guessed it ...day 10 And that storm wasn’t even there in the prior run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And that storm wasn’t even there in the prior run There was always a longwave passage about that time. Exactly how the short waves within the flow behaved was all over the place. A shotgun of cutter, sheared out, fish storm, suppressed...so there was no clear signal other then at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 This is the first time a hint of a signal in the snow means showed. It’s weak but for something centered day 10-11 this is about the best you’re going to get. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: Looks epic for the fish Lets zoom in a bit closer, a panel later. Ahh yes, I'll take it! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is the first time a hint of a signal in the snow means showed. It’s weak but for something centered day 10-11 this is about the best you’re going to get. Two big hits, one moderate hit 18Z GEFS, let’s see if those 10 percent odds improve over the next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Two big hits, one moderate hit 18Z GEFS, let’s see if those 10 percent odds improve over the next week... You’re being a little harsh. 2 big hits. 1 moderate hit. 3 minor snowfalls. 2 misses just to the NW. 2 misses just to the southeast or east. At that range that’s about all you’re ever going to see. The signal for a storm in that period is there. The odds of it being a big snow are maybe only 10%. But the odds of a warning snow snow in DC on any random day during January is less then 1% so 10% is a signal that there is a chance there. Maybe only a 10% but all of our eventual snow starts as a low probability when it’s in the long range. And 90% will never amount to anything. But 10% will. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Most important Christmas runs of our lives coming up 2 5 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 4 hours ago, Ji said: Looks epic for the fish Watch that for a few runs that could be the one just needs timing and spacing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 That is some torrential rain verbatim on the 00z GFS for NYE/NYD. 2-4” of rain across the area. Almost a carbon copy of yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: That is some torrential rain verbatim on the 00z GFS for NYE/NYD. 2-4” of rain across the area. Almost a carbon copy of yesterday. Basically exactly 7 days in the future. That's honestly kind of uncanny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 GFS cooking something up next weekend. LP forming off OBX with a closed 500 low over eastern TN/KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Captured coastal setup on the GFS We get some decent snow but much better to our NE. Wilmington to Philly FTW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: GFS cooking something up next weekend. LP forming off OBX with a closed 500 low over eastern TN/KY. Looks good. Just has to hold for 8 more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Eastern Shore special but majority of the area gets in on the fun. Sign me up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Low Tracks over Hartford CT,, but west of the Hudson stays snow. Interesting storm. Almost looks like Dec 2001 further west. Edit: All of ME changes over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Looks good. Just has to hold for 8 more days. What could go wrong? Let’s see what the GEFS says but you could see the evolution just on H5 and it was screaming east coast threat. The closed 500 low north of MN was atypical for this area to see snow (I think) but DC got digital snow so who cares! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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