frd Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 @psuhoffman What apparent weather would this look deliver? Bowling bowl blizzard ? WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 @WxUSAF I would like to see a few less SWs flying around. That one in the 4 corners this week really hurts the wave spacing for Friday. The multiple waves next week makes the 12th tricky. In the end I doubt they all get suppressed but it’s probably making it harder for guidance to key on what to amplify. We likely won’t get a super long track storm with all these waves running interference with one another. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF I would like to see a few less SWs flying around. That one in the 4 corners this week really hurts the wave spacing for Friday. The multiple waves next week makes the 12th tricky. In the end I doubt they all get suppressed but it’s probably making it harder for guidance to key on what to amplify. We likely won’t get a super long track storm with all these waves running interference with one another. Yeah I said I liked the 12th and then more of the 12z guidance shears it out. Lots of options coming up and feeling pretty good that we get one and probably multiple events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 So depending on the Euro next Friday/Saturday has snow flying around somewhere in the region....not bad for a rotten airmass I suppose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 UKIE through 144 is a huge hit for SW Va. Decent hit up the entire 81 corridor. Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Passing along from @mitchnick that the Ukie is a solid hit for Friday. Especially n/w. On F5/Eurowx UKMET has a solid 3 to 5 inch snow from 95 north and west with CHO area and Blue Ridge into WV getting over 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, frd said: @psuhoffman What apparent weather would this look deliver? Bowling bowl blizzard ? WTF That’s some extreme there...but the N PAC trough pulled back too much. Look where the ridge out west is! Off the west coast. That’s why the storm cuts on that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 So ICON targets DC metro, GFS targets south and central VA, and UKIE targets N and W? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF I would like to see a few less SWs flying around. That one in the 4 corners this week really hurts the wave spacing for Friday. The multiple waves next week makes the 12th tricky. In the end I doubt they all get suppressed but it’s probably making it harder for guidance to key on what to amplify. We likely won’t get a super long track storm with all these waves running interference with one another. And this is the chaos part I don't like...because you don't know what's gonna be a favorable interaction and an unfavorable one...and or if one interaction happens at the right time or the wrong time...dang it, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 I'm thinking the event next weekend could be much like the event in 2018. Sorry DC peeps. I hope I'm wrong. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Snowing in NC and SW VA at 120 on 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Euro is going to be a Virginia storm from the looks of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Nothing north of Richmond on the euro. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Euro is a nice event for S VA before going OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Euro came NW relative to 0z. Still not much northern stream interaction. That’s what pulls the low north and expands the precip field for runs like the para-gfs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Hi Rez Euro is a nice hit for Roanoke. No Precip north of Richmond. Salisbury does get a little at the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Wow the models look the same as they did back in 2018. I remember the forecast was for 2-4'' for me in Charlottesville and I got 13''. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Feels like the envelope of solutions is getting defined...anywhere from the Mason Dixon line to probably just south of the Virginia/NC border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 when the only model showing snow for us is the Euro...its almost always wrong. when the only model showing supressed for is is the Euro--its almost always right. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Wow the models look the same as they did back in 2018. I remember the forecast was for 2-4'' for me in Charlottesville and I got 13''. Charlottesville gets nothing on either Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 when things get desperate---you can use the weenie line--"even the progressive nogpaps has it closer and further north to the coast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: when things get desperate---you can use the weenie line--"even the progressive nogpaps has it closer and further north to the coast" So glad you will be distracted this evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 The real wildcard is the rogue vort over se Canada that splits off and then rotates south. All the models had that piece today except the Ukie. It can go extremely well like the para and you get a full on phase, or crappy like cmc and euro where it’s late and kind of slingshots it east. We’re 6 days out right now. No where close to a solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 euro has a gulf low for the WxUSAF storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: So glad you will be distracted this evening there is like 3 minutes between plays.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Wow the models look the same as they did back in 2018. I remember the forecast was for 2-4'' for me in Charlottesville and I got 13''. 3-5 forecasted here night before, ended up with a bit over 20! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: euro has a gulf low for the WxUSAF storm Yeah, I like that panel a lot. Phasing in the northern stream low. Cold air mass in place. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Yeah, I like that panel a lot. Phasing in the northern stream low. Cold air mass in place. U just answered a question I posed for you. Ty. Wasnt seeing much on any ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: there is like 3 minutes between plays.... Eagles are resting everyone. If you guys don’t beat us you don’t deserve a team 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Eagles are resting everyone. If you guys don’t beat us you don’t deserve a team if you all beat us--you shoud fire you entire front office. Dropping from 3 to 10 in the draft smh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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