Weather Will Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 WB 6Z EPS not loving Friday. Most low locations weak and out to sea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: 6z GFS- Para ends up riding up coast late Friday. NOVA looks to do well according to the run. Don’t know if the ridging out west is where we want it. Maybe someone can comment on that. Ridge axis not as important here as the storm makes its phase at our latitude under a strong block. We’re hoping that the block doesn’t suppress the SW. the ridge out west is flat but the confluence to the north makes it unlikely to cut. Normally for a GOM low that phases early, wed want the west coast ridge axis to be through Idaho for allow for enough spacing and deepening of the trough so that the NS and SS merge and form our KU. Anyone else want to add Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 14 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: 6z GFS- Para ends up riding up coast late Friday. NOVA looks to do well according to the run. Don’t know if the ridging out west is where we want it. Maybe someone can comment on that. Its a good evolution for most of the area. The key to getting a good outcome(vs a closed low rolling eastward to our south) seems to be the degree of interaction with that NS piece of energy dropping south out of Canada. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Its a good evolution for most of the area. The key to getting a good outcome(vs a closed low rolling eastward to our south) seems to be the degree of interaction with that NS piece of energy dropping south out of Canada. Hitting it from behind is the key..not on top...euro hit it from top last night..no bueno 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Hitting it from behind is the key..not on top...euro hit it from top last night..no bueno Yes the timing is critical. Euro drops the hammer, CMC misses, and GFS/Para are just about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yes the timing is critical. Euro drops the hammer, CMC misses, and GFS/Para are just about right. Yeah PSU said that last night...he seems wise and one hell of a model American Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS not loving Friday. Most low locations weak and out to sea... For 6 days out that looks pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: For 6 days out that looks pretty good to me. Appears to me the weak solutions slide. The stronger lows ride. Makes complete sense thus why we have been saying weak sauce likely won't cut it with this one and we actually want a propertly timed phase. Still time...mixed solutions still attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Appears to me the weak solutions slide. The stronger lows ride. Makes complete sense thus why we have been saying weak sauce likely won't cut it with this one and we actually want a propertly timed phase. Still time...mixed solutions still attm. Basically every storm the last several weeks has trended further NW than modeled. Maybe that trend stops with the blocking that's being modeled but I wouldn't count on it. It seems blocking / confluence is overmodeled a good bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Fwiw the ICON is a general 2-4 with more to the SW. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 WB 12Z ICON 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS not loving Friday. Most low locations weak and out to sea... Mean is misleading. There was an increase in members that bring the low north. Still a minority cluster but it went from about 8 members at 0z to 13 members at 6z. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 ICON trended South from the 00z run I believe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z ICON In the old days 5-6 days out I would want a big fat cushion of the heavier stuff to my south and east....this would be an almost money shot from this timeframe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Hard to tell just from the CONUS vies but it looks like the gfs is phasing in the NS @ h84. Either way its a different handling of that piece from the booted east look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z ICON I didn’t know the ICON could even show snow In seriousness great to see it show some cold at the surface. Let’s see consistency now from all guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Really strong high in Canada on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 this is looking like a central VA special for the storm on the 8th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Better phase south will it turn and tilt neg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Virginia gets a really nice snow with the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 It looks like its trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Not showing at the surface but with that pass the precip would be more north and west I would imagine I like it at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, WhiteoutMD said: Not showing at the surface but with that pass the precip would be more north and west I would imagine I like it at this point that is an understatement!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 WB 12Z GFS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Phases too late on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 I like what the 12z run depicts at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS Pretty nice dry slot over H2O's house 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Phases too late on the GFS. It looks similar to the Para dropping the northern stream vort in from eastern Canada, but the timing is off a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Pretty nice dry slot over H2O's house I’m just above the dog shape nose which is cold and wet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 That looked like a great track for most of the run! But it did not go boom fast enough! We will see if this goes north and west with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts