clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 hours ago, frd said: Do you think the window extends to Fed 1 st ? I vaguely recall you mentioning suppression risks rise after the 20 th. Usually a block like that isnt going anywhere for a while. It might relax for a bit, which could end up being a good thing for us, but it will probably be here through. the winter. I am actually more concerned with suppression than anything else with blocking the way it is being modelled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 39 minutes ago, Ji said: Amazing how the pos gfs won't freaking put blue over us. Wtf Lol I kind of agree with you. It’s pretty amazing the convoluted things it cooks up to give us rain. Luckily it will be wrong. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 55 minutes ago, CAPE said: Pretty classic look. Might help if there was a bit more spacing- that next wave is right on the heels. Also maybe a bit too much of a good thing to our NE. The normal north trend might help us out this time. Seems like confluence always ends up further north than forecasted . But temps may be an issue either way it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Do you agree with my thoughts that with the proper adjustments that second piece coming behind could be the one? I don’t know if I’m just out to lunch here or not. Yeah Definitely. I mentioned both this morning when I looked at the ensembles. 18z GEFS actually looks "better" for the following piece, with more northern track and more precip, but it also looks warmer. Interpreting it verbatim on the mean, it looks pretty good for your area. Long way to go ofc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Oh he went THERE I do agree that the better analog is 2010 but using the most extreme example is dangerous because results of a similar pattern are not always the same. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Lol I kind of agree with you. It’s pretty amazing the convoluted things it cooks up to give us rain. Luckily it will be wrong. Everyone could just stop paying much attention to it like I did and things would run a lot smoother around here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Better way to get cold into the pattern. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh he went THERE I do agree that the better analog is 2010 but using the most extreme example is dangerous because results of a similar pattern are not always the same. With JB and Judah on our side, how can we lose? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Expect some bizarre solutions in the weeks ahead. Of course the models will be able to handle the physics. Nothing personal GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Better way to get cold into the pattern. Someone posted this same frame in the SE forum and it made me raise my eyebrows. Could that high ridge be suggestive of the mythical cross polar flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh he went THERE I do agree that the better analog is 2010 but using the most extreme example is dangerous because results of a similar pattern are not always the same. Shame he is record for saying we stay warm in January with colder air coming in February unless that's what he means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, frd said: Expect some bizarre solutions in the weeks ahead. Of course the models will be able to handle the physics. Nothing personal GFS. I am a stickler for what a true block is, and this is the defining characteristic. It isn't just seeing red at h5 up over GL.. a block does just that- it literally blocks the flow/ progression of waves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 25 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah Definitely. I mentioned both this morning when I looked at the ensembles. 18z GEFS actually looks "better" for the following piece, with more northern track and more precip, but it also looks warmer. Interpreting it verbatim on the mean, it looks pretty good for your area. Long way to go ofc. I’m thinking that if we speed that ns piece up a little it will pull the first storm up the coast and it will also be out of the way for the second one. It’s that second one that I think has the real potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Shame he is record for saying we stay warm in January with colder air coming in February unless that's what he means It’s important to remember that all this awesome pattern we’re shoveling through at least the 20th and more likely the 25-30th has absolutely nothing to do with the SSW. Impacts from the SSW are only after then, if we see any at all (which I think we do). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m thinking that if we speed that ns piece up a little it will pull the first storm up the coast and it will also be out of the way for the second one. It’s that second one that I think has the real potential. I cant argue with this at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: I am a stickler for what a true block is, and this is the defining characteristic. It isn't just seeing red at h5 up over GL.. a block does just that- it literally blocks the flow/ progression of waves. Exactly, very impressive to see the movement stop and head the other way. You have to think there might be some interesting changes in store for the medium range given the block. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 The end of the Para run may be one of the most extreme looks I have seen....It's an op run but worth a weenie look!. No worries about cold air as an AK ridge dislodges arctic air while the -NAO rages. TPV lobe about to set up shop in SE Can... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, poolz1 said: The end of the Para run may be one of the most extreme looks I have seen....It's an op run but worth a weenie look!. No worries about cold air as an AK ridge dislodges arctic air while the -NAO rages. TPV lobe about to set up shop in SE Can... Barney in the lower 48 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: With JB and Judah on our side, how can we lose? This was the first year in like forever that he didn’t predict like 500% snowfall for 95 so it would be this year that we get another snowmageddon 2 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: The end of the Para run may be one of the most extreme looks I have seen....It's an op run but worth a weenie look!. No worries about cold air as an AK ridge dislodges arctic air while the -NAO rages. TPV lobe about to set up shop in SE Can... Pics or it didn't happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: The end of the Para run may be one of the most extreme looks I have seen....It's an op run but worth a weenie look!. No worries about cold air as an AK ridge dislodges arctic air while the -NAO rages. TPV lobe about to set up shop in SE Can... That sounds like a recipe for cold and suppression to Charleston, SC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: It’s important to remember that all this awesome pattern we’re shoveling through at least the 20th and more likely the 25-30th has absolutely nothing to do with the SSW. Impacts from the SSW are only after then, if we see any at all (which I think we do). It could be as early as the 20th. With a TPV this weak the coupling process could be fairly quick. Wrt effects my best guess based on past coupled SSW events is it simply promotes a -NAM state into and probably through the second half of winter. There will undoubtedly be periods of flux but odds are we get at least one more tanking of the AO after this one. I tend to look to other examples where the TPV was a weakling to begin with. Imo there is synergy. Often when we get a season long-NAM state there was a weakened TPV to begin with then a SSW finished it off. And often when we’ve had multiple season -NAM states there was a string of stratospheric weakening events after the main SSW. Interestingly maybe there is a solar minimum (it’s really as the solar begins to increase after the min) link. If we take the whole of the late winter 2009 when the first major SSW hit through 2011 period you could argue we didn’t even maximize potential. Even just 2010 it wasn’t non stop snow even though the -AO/NAO ran pretty much straight through the winter. We did miss a few threats. I think while getting cold/snow in general is getting harder odds of anomalous extreme snowstorms or periods (if you can string a couple together) have increased due to the increased baroclinicity and energy available due to warning. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that in 90 years of records I poured through before 1980 I only found 3 20” storms up here...but there have been 8 in the 40 years since and even within that span the frequency is increasing with 5 in the last 12 years. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: That sounds like a recipe for cold and suppression to Charleston, SC Jakkel will see snow in Florida before here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 I hope RVA gets smoked and osubum is left questioning the MA boundaries 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: The end of the Para run may be one of the most extreme looks I have seen....It's an op run but worth a weenie look!. No worries about cold air as an AK ridge dislodges arctic air while the -NAO rages. TPV lobe about to set up shop in SE Can... EPS sets up cross polar flow and a western ridge towards the end of the run. To have it show up on the ensembles and not some rogue OP run is important and boost confidence in this solution: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Guidance is starting to pick up on a NS SW diving in out of Canada around the 8th. Right now unfortunately most guidance is diving it on on top of the cutoff low. We need that to dive in behind and phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 The NAM's have lost all frozen over the past couple of runs for tomorrow. Kind of weird to see them warm up as we get closer to the event. That is the opposite of what we usually see from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The NAM's have lost all frozen over the past couple of runs for tomorrow. Kind of weird to see them warm up as we get closer to the event. That is the opposite of what we usually see from them. The upper level low tracks to our NW. it’s trended NW considerably the last 72 hours. The surface system is weak until past our latitude. Marginal airmass. Not a good combo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 Found this tidbit in the SE forum... h/t @griteater 35 minutes ago, griteater said: Here is the Euro Control run at 500mb and at the Surface. Wave enters the west coast in Oregon and is forced to slow down and dive down into the SE as the flow backs up over the Canadian Maritimes and North Atlantic with the developing blocking. Simply put, you want this wave to be as strong as possible, and tracking a bit south of you as the temperatures needed for snow would come on the N and NW side of that track as heights crash. Stronger wave = stronger temperature crash. Surface temps would be the last to fall, so things like time of day could be a factor in a marginal temp setup. You could make the case that the small wave tracking thru the Great Lakes toward the end of the loop is disrupting flow so that the surface high above the Great Lakes isn't allowed to build in to help the low level temperatures out ahead of the storm (2nd loop)....but on the prior run, that small wave wasn't there and it didn't make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Icon looks waaaay different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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