40westwx Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 41 minutes ago, CAPE said: The pattern is extremely active and amplified. The anticyclonic wave breaking in the EPAC is sending chunks of energy into the western US and as it amplifies, ridging builds downstream over the east. The NAO block is not really there yet- there is some NA ridging, but its not stable and mostly too far east over the next week or so. With all the moving parts it is possible for something to materialize- probably a trailing wave, as we have seen on some op runs, but otherwise we are probably...wait for it... 10 days away! 10 days away before we start seeing snow storms show up on the models or 10 days away from Snow Falling from the sky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 If we can manage a fluke snow in a crud pattern surely we can manage something during a half decent one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 5 hours ago, CAPE said: Extended GEFS suggests its temporary. Keep in mind the latest run is from 0z yesterday. It could be, if it ever does fully migrate to AK, just a temporary phase. I’m putting some pieces I’ve read together but that look may be related to some of the precursors to the SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Judah suggesting we might have good golfing weather in the east for the first part of Jan. @leesburg 04 Thaw! He also thinks the cold does come east but not until 1-2 weeks after the PV disruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: He also thinks the cold does come east but not until 1-2 weeks after the PV disruption. Yeah that's what I got from it. Mild in the east the first 2 weeks or so of Jan. He also seems to be leaning heavily on the GEFS, so we shall see. Curious to see what the EPS looks like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah that's what I got from it. Mild in the east the first 2 weeks or so of Jan. He also seems to be leaning heavily on the GEFS, so we shall see. Curious to see what the EPS looks like today. Ironically I read some stuff back in 2019 that implied the SSW really screwed us that year. The heat flux precursor to the SSW disrupted the pretty favorable pattern setting in early January but we never got the benefits later as the SSW didn’t couple with the TPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ironically I read some stuff back in 2019 that implied the SSW really screwed us that year. The heat flux precursor to the SSW disrupted the pretty favorable pattern setting in early January but we never got the benefits later as the SSW didn’t couple with the TPV. I read that too. There is really no way to know how things will reshuffle, and exactly where the daughter vortices end up. And this may not even be a SSW, just a warming event. There does seem to be a correlation between significant weakening of the SPV and -AO though. Not sure how well that works if the AO is already negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: I read that too. There is really no way to know how things will reshuffle, and exactly where the daughter vortices end up. And this may not even be a SSW, just a warming event. There does seem to be a correlation between significant weakening of the SPV and -AO though. Not sure how well that works if the AO is already negative. We need at @Isotherm to come in here and do a little updating. I believe according to his seasonal forecast , January held the highest probabilities of colder with normal to above normal snowfall for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Latest Euro looks kind of ugly. PNA is just not cooperating in the 7-10 day timeframe. GFS shows an ugly PNA through day 14 also. I was hoping it would improve by now, but looks like we'll waste the first part of the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: 2 runs in a row with a development of a wave on the CF on NYD. I like that h5 breaks a piece off and starts to leave it behind. Have to see how the evolution trends . Yeah I guess there is a chance at something day 8-9. Going to need it to happen a lot further west if it's going to track up the coast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Judah suggesting we might have good golfing weather in the east for the first part of Jan. @leesburg 04 Thaw! Of course judah flips. He must have consulted with BAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 hours ago, fujiwara79 said: well, in this case, it appears the rain/snow line for these storms is west of chicago. montreal, quebec and even labrador are getting rain. 2 hours ago, CAPE said: The pattern is extremely active and amplified. The anticyclonic wave breaking in the EPAC is sending chunks of energy into the western US and as it amplifies, ridging builds downstream over the east. The NAO block is not really there yet- there is some NA ridging, but its not stable and mostly too far east over the next week or so. With all the moving parts it is possible for something to materialize- probably a trailing wave, as we have seen on some op runs, but otherwise we are probably...wait for it... 10 days away! Problem is no cold. The blocking is doing its job if you look at the h5 SWs are getting blocked in the Midwest and washing out or forced east. If there was cold around there would be CAD and likely a transfer situation. But there isn’t. The surface systems will ride the thermal gradient and if that is way up in Canada systems will synoptic amplify in the west then wash out east. We could perhaps overcome the bad pac if there was some cold in this blocking regime but there isn’t. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 14 minutes ago, Amped said: Latest Euro looks kind of ugly. PNA is just not cooperating in the 7-10 day timeframe. GFS shows an ugly PNA through day 14 also. I was hoping it would improve by now, but looks like we'll waste the first part of the block. What blocking is being wasted? You mean the NA ridge that keeps popping where we want a 50-50 low? That blocking? That's useless, esp with the PAC behaving the way it is. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Problem is no cold. The blocking is doing its job if you look at the h5 SWs are getting blocked in the Midwest and washing out or forced east. If there was cold around there would be CAD and likely a transfer situation. But there isn’t. The surface systems will ride the thermal gradient and if that is way up in Canada systems will synoptic amplify in the west then wash out east. We could perhaps overcome the bad pac if there was some cold in this blocking regime but there isn’t. Yeah we don't have the cold, and that makes the location and strength of the +heights in the NA all the more critical. Maybe it gets there, as the LR means are suggesting, but for the next 7 to 10 days its displaced east/SE, and hasn't retrograded west yet. That can still work with favorable timing, if we can get something to not amplify so far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah we don't have the cold, and that makes the location and strength of the +heights in the NA all the more critical. Maybe it gets there, as the LR means are suggesting, but for the next 7 to 10 days its displaced east/SE, and hasn't retrograded west yet. That can still work with favorable timing, if we can get something to not amplify so far west. The worrisome part is the west-based looks we were getting continue to degrade and get kicked down farther into the LR. Imho, if we are pinning the winter on hoping a SWE can help us, we are in trouble. Just being realistic here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: What blocking is being wasted? You mean the NA ridge that keeps popping where we want a 50-50 low? That blocking? That's useless, esp with the PAC behaving the way it is. 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah we don't have the cold, and that makes the location and strength of the +heights in the NA all the more critical. Maybe it gets there, as the LR means are suggesting, but for the next 7 to 10 days its displaced east/SE, and hasn't retrograded west yet. That can still work with favorable timing, if we can get something to not amplify so far west. I think there is a connection to the cold problem with though. The runs that were getting the block further west we’re doing so because they were colder runs. Colder meant more gradient in the east and systems were amplifying east more and getting into the 50/50. Then the wave break from those lows retrogrades the ridge further NW. It’s a symbiotic relationship. The storms are amplifying too far NW to get into the 50/50 space and kick start that process partially because there isn’t enough cold in the pattern to suppress the storm track. Instead the wash out or end up way west of where we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: The worrisome part is the west-based looks we were getting continue to degrade and get kicked down farther into the LR. Imho, if we are pinning the winter on hoping a SWE can help us, we are in trouble. Just being realistic here. Yeah we have seen these epic -NAO looks over and over on LR guidance in recent winters, and it rarely materializes in any meaningful way. Hopefully it works out this time. We had a transient -NAO in March of 2018 and scored, but the bomb cyclone happened with a favorable Pacific, and a +AO/NAO. Lets be patient and maybe the can doesn't get eternally kicked this time, but at some point I am going to root for a big ass EPO ridge, even if it means losing any NA blocking lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 12z GEFS is an improvement over 0z in the LR, suggesting the movement of the vortex toward the GOA might be transient, or the result of conflicting camps among the members. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Problem is no cold. The blocking is doing its job if you look at the h5 SWs are getting blocked in the Midwest and washing out or forced east. If there was cold around there would be CAD and likely a transfer situation. But there isn’t. The surface systems will ride the thermal gradient and if that is way up in Canada systems will synoptic amplify in the west then wash out east. We could perhaps overcome the bad pac if there was some cold in this blocking regime but there isn’t. I see your point here. The Pacific is the issue, and if energy is going to keep digging in out west and amplifying, probably the only way to somewhat mitigate that tendency is with a stout west-based block. Hopefully we see some improvement in the NPAC, as is being suggested on the extended GEFS, CFS weeklies, and EURO weeklies. Pop an EPO ridge and we have a path for cold to build in our source region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah we have seen these epic -NAO looks over and over on LR guidance in recent winters, and it rarely materializes in any meaningful way. Hopefully it works out this time. We had a transient -NAO in March of 2018 and scored, but the bomb cyclone happened with a favorable Pacific, and a +AO/NAO. Lets be patient and maybe the can doesn't get eternally kicked this time, but at some point I am going to root for a big ass EPO ridge, even if it means losing any NA blocking lol. Agree with all this but I wouldn’t characterize the 2018 March block as transient. It started as a classic WAR in Feb then slowly retrograded from each wave break first to an east based block near Iceland around Feb 28 to a classic west based block then all the way to a Hudson block by March 10 then it reformed as a Greenland block mid March and did one more cycle into April. It was pretty classic it was just too late to do is a ton of good. Although we did great for that late all things considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Agree with all this but I wouldn’t characterize the 2018 March block as transient. It started as a classic WAR in Feb then slowly retrograded from each wave break first to an east based block near Iceland around Feb 28 to a classic west based block then all the way to a Hudson block by March 10 then it reformed as a Greenland block mid March and did one more cycle into April. It was pretty classic it was just too late to do is a ton of good. Although we did great for that late all things considered Your memory far exceeds mine on these things lol. It was transient in the context of the winter as a whole though, which featured a predominant +NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 12z EPS flirts with a legit GOA trough, but never gets +heights in the east, and ends up with this look at the end of the run. Not bad. Still lacking super cold air in Canada, but might be good enough as we move towards mid Jan, and maybe we see continued improvement in the EPO domain as the extended tools are suggesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 minute ago, CAPE said: 12z EPS flirts with a legit GOA trough, but never gets +heights in the east, and ends up with this look at the end of the run. Not bad. Still lacking super cold air in Canada, but might be good enough as we move towards mid Jan, and maybe we see continued improvement in the EPO domain as the extended tools are suggesting. Talking mid-January now, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 23 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Talking mid-January now, huh? The pattern is pretty good by the 9th, and it isn't awful between now and then, if we get some luck and good timing. I was basically addressing the last few ens runs that were suggesting we might be heading for disaster by mid month lol. Maybe not.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Talking mid-January now, huh? A few posters were already into the first week of February so hearing mid January is actually somewhat refreshing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 All this ‘few weeks’ out talk is reminding me of last year a bit too much 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 17 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: All this ‘few weeks’ out talk is reminding me of last year a bit too much Were not in that kind of shape. I said around Xmas last year we were headed for a historically bad year. I was so confident in that I didn’t even bother to get my snowblower out of the shed and tune it up. While it may not look awesome right now we’re not in that territory Imo. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Feel the Grinch stole the good pattern! Maybe it will change and the PNA will grow positive by a few sizes because of Christmas... Bah humbug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Feel the Grinch stole the good pattern! Maybe it will change and the PNA will grow positive by a few sizes because of Christmas... Bah humbug But... didn’t the grinch have heart problems? Even if it grows a few sizes, that doesn’t mean it’s good. Isn’t there a heart issue that leaves black spots on your heart? Didn’t the song mention moldy purple spots on his heart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: But... didn’t the grinch have heart problems? Even if it grows a few sizes, that doesn’t mean it’s good. Isn’t there a heart issue that leaves black spots on your heart? Didn’t the song mention moldy purple spots on his heart? Enlarged heart sounds bad to me. Unless it is meant to mean one has more heart. Context is a bitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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