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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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1 minute ago, frd said:

@CAPE

 

Sipping my coffee and enjoying my new monitor which shows these forecasts. 

 

What is your latest feelings ?  Seems the GEFS looks very nice ! And appears to get colder in time .

 

This is the window which some favor for a SECS Day 6 to 16 .

 

 

 

My thoughts haven't really changed. The pattern is favorable with the HL block and some improvement on the Pac side. Late week still looks interesting, as does the period early the following week. Time to shift the focus from tracking the longwave pattern to tracking specific threats.

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1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I got 90” of rain in 2018, which I just assumed was a once-in-a-lifetime outlier with some assistance from El Nino. But then I got nearly 80” last year from a La Nina. I’m not a climatologist but something isn’t right. The number of rainy days isn’t really increasing but the rain events are just carrying more moisture every time now here.

The summers seem to be getting hotter and more humid every year. I think our average high in summer has gone up from 88 degrees in July from the 1981-2010 normals to 90 

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25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

My thoughts haven't really changed. The pattern is favorable with the HL block and some improvement on the Pac side. Late week still looks interesting, as does the period early the following week. Time to shift the focus from tracking the longwave pattern to tracking specific threats.

Yeah, I get that people are impatient.  I am too!  I'm still not very bullish on the Jan 8 threat, but I think this period coming up is perhaps the best long wave pattern we've had in years?  Still think odds for a KU are higher or much higher than normal. Although that certainly doesn't mean one is a lock.  

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3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Man what an ugly overnight of analysis. It's easy to blame Ji but it all started with PSUs post of Ian's tweet it went downhill right after that led by the master himself. Pathetic...I'm moving in with mitchnick, Bob Chill and anyone else who left the board :hurrbear:

I was posting Eric Fishers reply to Ian.  But of course everyone gravitated to the pessimistic part. I am bullish overall. But NOTHING is guaranteed. We can and have wasted good patterns if we get unlucky. 

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, I get that people are impatient.  I am too!  I'm still not very bullish on the Jan 8 threat, but I think this period coming up is perhaps the best long wave pattern we've had in years?  Still think odds for a KU are higher or much higher than normal. Although that certainly doesn't mean one is a lock.  

The late week thing has me a little more interested than I was, after seeing some op runs with a southern track, and then looking over the ens means this morning. The pattern does look conducive for a KU, but right now I am thinking small- like really small. After next to nothing last winter and nothing so far this winter, I just want to see snow falling and sticking lol.

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3 minutes ago, Anyweather said:

I agree. I believe the 30 year averages update soon, no? Be interesting to see if and how much they “tick” up. Assuming they go up. 

Believe I saw every month is warmer than the previous 30 years except November, which got slightly cooler.

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The late week thing has me a little more interested than I was, after seeing some op runs with a southern track, and then looking over the ens means this morning. The pattern does look conducive to a KU, but right now I am thinking small- like really small. After next to nothing last winter and nothing so far this winter, I just want to see snow falling and sticking lol.

I’m pretty much right there with you. I’d love a 2-3 week cold period with several modest snowfalls. Yes a KU would be amazing, but my bar is far lower.

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10 minutes ago, Anyweather said:

I agree. I believe the 30 year averages update soon, no? Be interesting to see if and how much they “tick” up. Assuming they go up. 

Getting off topic but we are at the same latitude as southern Spain and Sicily after all. Citrus groves and palm abound is those areas. Not too far fetched to imagine that around here in the next 100 years

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Dynamic cooling/forcing to the left of the 850mb low track gets it done for SE VA. That would be some super low ratio snow if it did stick verbatim.

Saw this same sort of thing further north in NJ on the 18z run yesterday. It's possible even with the meh airmass.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Dynamic cooling/forcing to the left of the 850mb low track gets it done for SE VA. That would be some super low ratio snow if it did stick verbatim.

Saw this same sort of thing further north in NJ on the 18z run yesterday. It's possible even with the meh airmass.

 

 

This one should be watched especially for your area. But you know that 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

@CAPE

 

Sipping my coffee and enjoying my new monitor which shows these forecasts. 

 

What is your latest feelings ?  Seems the GEFS looks very nice ! And appears to get colder in time .

 

This is the window which some favor for a SECS Day 6 to 16 .

 

 

 

image.png.bf990c279bbf72ea5016f5b241d61b01.png

 

 

 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

My thoughts haven't really changed. The pattern is favorable with the HL block and some improvement on the Pac side. Late week still looks interesting, as does the period early the following week. Time to shift the focus from tracking the longwave pattern to tracking specific threats.

 

55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, I get that people are impatient.  I am too!  I'm still not very bullish on the Jan 8 threat, but I think this period coming up is perhaps the best long wave pattern we've had in years?  Still think odds for a KU are higher or much higher than normal. Although that certainly doesn't mean one is a lock.  

Unless you’re either a huge deb pessimistic or a troll I don’t know how you can look at that with any other reaction then optimism. It’s literally a carbon copy of our absolute BEST big snow pattern!   Unfortunately some of our most prolific posters fall in those 2 categories.  I can make a 3 paragraph post with 5 optimistic points and all they read is the one caveat I bring up. 

I think it’s a little too early for these wildly emotional reactions to every op run. The very first wave after the pattern establishes is still 6 days away. And that wave is “close” enough that the details NWP might still adjust at that range puts us still in the game. Yes temps are iffy but it’s the first wave with a horrible antecedent airmass so that shouldn’t be a shock. Frankly a few days ago we didn’t think that wave has any chance at all or being cold enough. We rarely score on the front end of blocking patterns. 
 

After that everything is way too far out to be overly worried about anything more specific then the general longwave pattern look. Imo past 150 hrs it’s better to take the longwave pattern on ensembles and apply historical climo then to look at op run details.

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8 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

What a great looking MSLP on the gfs but the actual precip is surprisingly anemic.  995 low in a great spot.... Why is that?

There are multiple lows initially and that one becomes the primary. No idea if that is "real" or not. Convective feedback!

gfs_mslp_wind_neus_29.png

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Frankly a few days ago we didn’t think that wave has any chance at all or being cold enough. We rarely score on the front end of blocking patterns. 

Seems everything has moved up a bit, also as you stated yesterday , I forget the exact specifics , colder versus warmer outcomes the last few days in the modeling may be the trend.  

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