yoda Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 Then a nice major snowstorm on the 12th/13th on the 06z GFS for most west of i95... track is a bit too far inland, but nice HP in place in Quebec... just change a few things and we all enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 GEFS looks solid for late next week. Some really nice hits among the members. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: GEFS looks solid for late next week. Some really nice hits among the members. Even for the lowlands, like us? Ah I see it now, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, frd said: Even for the lowlands, like us? Ah I see it now, thanks. I think the bigger risk for failure now might be a miss to the south, as we saw on recent GFS and CMC op runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 A couple panels from the 0z EPS mean for late next week. Fair amount of spread among the members re p-type and track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 47 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I pop in this morning after good runs yesterday and I'm like WTF happened overnight lol Blocking apparently transient, or bootleg. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Man what an ugly overnight of analysis. It's easy to blame Ji but it all started with PSUs post of Ian's tweet it went downhill right after that led by the master himself. Pathetic...I'm moving in with mitchnick, Bob Chill and anyone else who left the board 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Man what an ugly overnight of analysis. It's easy to blame Ji but it all started with PSUs post of Ian's tweet it went downhill right after that led by the master himself. Pathetic...I'm moving in with mitchnick, Bob Chill and anyone else who left the board LR op run meltdowns are the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 WB 6Z EURO. Mood flakes for Sunday in NW areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 rainstorm after rainstorm. when will this shit end? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 15 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: rainstorm after rainstorm. when will this shit end? my friend , who loves snow, moved to Harrisburg and is quite content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said: my friend , who loves snow, moved to Harrisburg and is quite content. yea but then you are stuck in harrisburg the other 350 days it doesnt snow. 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, mdhokie said: yea but then you are stuck in harrisburg the other 350 days it doesnt snow. he has lived there for 50 years and he has no complaints Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 37 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: rainstorm after rainstorm. when will this shit end? April 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Can anyone post the over night AO ensemble run from the Euro. Would like to compare it against the CPC data. It appears that forecast drops the AO to - 4 SD near the 7 th of Jan. and after that the forecast members wash out, generally rising, but with no clear consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 26 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: April I wouldn't bet on that.. I've long thought that this is how GW plays out. Initially there's a golden period of snowstorms as the warming oceans provide the energy but there's still enough cold on the playing field. We've seen that the past 10-20yrs around here and especially up into NE. Then as the background state continues to warm you start to lose the snow and end up with rain. This will be the case for a decade or so until the next phase as subtropical conditions continue to move north and winter as we know and love it ceases to exist. I wish we'd just get to that point already so we didn't have to put up with all this cold rain anymore. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, IronTy said: I wouldn't bet on that.. I've long thought that this is how GW plays out. Initially there's a golden period of snowstorms as the warming oceans provide the energy but there's still enough cold on the playing field. We've seen that the past 10-20yrs around here and especially up into NE. Then as the background state continues to warm you start to lose the snow and end up with rain. This will be the case for a decade or so until the next phase as subtropical conditions continue to move north and winter as we know and love it ceases to exist. I wish we'd just get to that point already so we didn't have to put up with all this cold rain anymore. Well I'll be moving to Florida soon so I will never have to worry about snow again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, frd said: Can anyone post the over night AO ensemble run from the Euro. Would like to compare it against the CPC data. It appears that forecast drops the AO to - 4 SD near the 7 th of Jan. and after that the forecast members wash out, generally rising, but with no clear consensus. EPS mean has it very close to -4 around the 8th-9th, then it gradually rises back to -2 and it starts to slightly decline at the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 11 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Well I'll be moving to Florida soon so I will never have to worry about snow again In some odd way that might be a relief. You don’t worry much about what’s not possible. I know I will never get a heavy freezing spray warning...and the truth is I hardly think about it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 17 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Well I'll be moving to Florida soon so I will never have to worry about snow again I wouldn't mind living in S Florida. Lots of cool wildlife and unique habitat. Myself, living right up on the coast of the western shore in Calvert County even over the past 15yrs I've witnessed large changes due to sea level rise. We have a lot of lowland swampy forest dominated by red maples. Over time the brackish water floods the ground water and you have huge tree die offs because they can't handle the salty conditions. Eventually I assume cypress will take over these areas but probably not on a time frame I will live to see. Even in the low portions of the forest on my property are changing. I have a natural spring that feeds a stream that used to only flow in winter and barely any water at that. Over the past 10yrs the stream is now year-round and flows more like a small river in winter. Erosion has lowered the streambed by 2-3ft just in the past five years, sort of like a mini grand canyon. Soon I expect the red maples will start to die off and it will become open swamp. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 33 minutes ago, IronTy said: I wouldn't bet on that.. I've long thought that this is how GW plays out. Initially there's a golden period of snowstorms as the warming oceans provide the energy but there's still enough cold on the playing field. We've seen that the past 10-20yrs around here and especially up into NE. Then as the background state continues to warm you start to lose the snow and end up with rain. This will be the case for a decade or so until the next phase as subtropical conditions continue to move north and winter as we know and love it ceases to exist. I wish we'd just get to that point already so we didn't have to put up with all this cold rain anymore. I know there is a lot of frustration in southern Maryland over not seeing snow recently. Obviously, the earth is warming... however, pretty sure we don’t transition into a “subtropical climate” in the next ten years. Also not sure we saw a “golden age of snowstorms”... just been the same situation as always... we tend to go on hot streaks and of course... cold streaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, IronTy said: I wouldn't mind living in S Florida. Lots of cool wildlife and unique habitat. Myself, living right up on the coast of the western shore in Calvert County even over the past 15yrs I've witnessed large changes due to sea level rise. We have a lot of lowland swampy forest dominated by red maples. Over time the brackish water floods the ground water and you have huge tree die offs because they can't handle the salty conditions. Eventually I assume cypress will take over these areas but probably not on a time frame I will live to see. Even in the low portions of the forest on my property are changing. I have a natural spring that feeds a stream that used to only flow in winter and barely any water at that. Over the past 10yrs the stream is now year-round and flows more like a small river in winter. Erosion has lowered the streambed by 2-3ft just in the past five years, sort of like a mini grand canyon. Soon I expect the red maples will start to die off and it will become open swamp. Graphs, statistics, complex narratives cannot convey/underline the changes as you have, in such a descriptive understandable manner. I pray other members will do the same. Thank You. As always ..... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, rclab said: Graphs, statistics, complex narratives cannot convey/underline the changes as you have, in such a descriptive understandable manner. I pray other members will do the same. Thank You. As always ..... Wtf is going on here. I'm trying to lurk in peace and you fokes are killing me here lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Great analysis of the mid to long range in the last page. Really top notch. 4 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 hours ago, CAPE said: The hell is going on in here? Late night weenie takeover? Led by Ji panic? You me and wxusaf went to bed and Ji stayed up. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 23 minutes ago, chris21 said: I know there is a lot of frustration in southern Maryland over not seeing snow recently. Obviously, the earth is warming... however, pretty sure we don’t transition into a “subtropical climate” in the next ten years. Also not sure we saw a “golden age of snowstorms”... just been the same situation as always... we tend to go on hot streaks and of course... cold streaks. Yes I doubt as well it will be subtopics in 10yrs, I don't pretend to know the exact dates, but to me the general trend is pretty clear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, mattie g said: Great analysis of the mid to long range in the last page. Really top notch. That LR work was a freebie for you, the next will cost. Probably about as accurate as a 240h GFS run, no supercomputer required. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 @CAPE Sipping my coffee and enjoying my new monitor which shows these forecasts. What is your latest feelings ? Seems the GEFS looks very nice ! And appears to get colder in time . This is the window which some favor for a SECS Day 6 to 16 . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 28 minutes ago, chris21 said: I know there is a lot of frustration in southern Maryland over not seeing snow recently. Obviously, the earth is warming... however, pretty sure we don’t transition into a “subtropical climate” in the next ten years. Also not sure we saw a “golden age of snowstorms”... just been the same situation as always... we tend to go on hot streaks and of course... cold streaks. I got 90” of rain in 2018, which I just assumed was a once-in-a-lifetime outlier with some assistance from El Nino. But then I got nearly 80” last year from a La Nina. I’m not a climatologist but something isn’t right. The number of rainy days isn’t really increasing but the rain events are just carrying more moisture every time now here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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