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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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16 minutes ago, Ji said:


I remember the Christmas Eve euro run. I think it came out at 7pm back then lol but it gave Richmond 1-2 feet. Dt was going nuts


.

Please don’t ban me. Lol...

The model lead up before this was pretty epic. A damn shame. Do you remember me texting you on AIM the night before the storm after the ETA went east? Think my messanger name was b35jnelley but idk haha. Don’t ask me why I remember that this storm is very nostalgic for me it was when I first got into wx. 

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like 00z CMC is going to miss south of us for right now for the 8th... fine by me.  Gets crushed because of what happens in NE Canada at h5

Dramatically colder on the Canadian at the surface as well. 

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gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-0128800.thumb.png.09049ac646aa439becf522a278503fb3.png

Pretty decent cluster for 7 days out. I'll be away on vacation until the 13th (go figure), but hopefully this storm can be willed into favoring a fair bit of the subforum. Not a terrible track, and it seems like some of the Ops/Ens want to deliver on that "gravy" as was mentioned earlier by PSU and others. 

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4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing to worry about

Check the para

 Way different

Euro op breaks down the NAO also rather abruptly. Replaces it with more of a WAR look. Might not be a transient displacement though....not quite sure yet.

Could the SWE somehow be having the reverse effect of what we hoped?

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curious

 

Replying to 
The SSW is far-reaching and affects every other thing you hear about in medium range forecasting. It's, again, like the ENSO of subseasonal forecasting. It reshapes the playing field in which the synoptic scale features evolve within.
were all hoping that, as a result of SSW, cold and snow will be the end result of this paradigm going on in our atmosphere, except.....
dec30 2020
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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro op breaks down the NAO also rather abruptly. Replaces it with more of a WAR look. Might not be a transient displacement though....not quite sure yet.

Could the SWE somehow be having the reverse effect of what we hoped?

EPS looks fine to me. There could be a relaxation, but pac improves. Rememver our pattern change wasn’t until after this potential event. This would just be icing on the cake. Still forever to go. I’d favor maybe the southeast and mid Atlantic right now. Think euro OP didn’t have a ton of support who knows

D50C9B73-2011-4420-97FA-90E8C3A3250E.png

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19 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

EPS looks fine to me. There could be a relaxation, but pac improves. Rememver our pattern change wasn’t until after this potential event. This would just be icing on the cake. Still forever to go. I’d favor maybe the southeast and mid Atlantic right now. Think euro OP didn’t have a ton of support who knows

D50C9B73-2011-4420-97FA-90E8C3A3250E.png

and the rest of the GFS run is rain-an inland runner and a cold front.- and that takes us to the 18th. I'm realistic about our snow chances regardless.

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16 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said:

and the rest of the GFS run is rain-an inland runner and a cold front.- and that takes us to the 18th. I'm realistic about our snow chances regardless.

6z para is a different story in the LR for now. I would never look at the OP gfs. Idk why but it seems a lot of excitement on wx forums doesn’t start until the LR gfs shows a hit, but it’s a horrific model. Stick to the ensembles. Not telling you to be unrealistic but we need some more patience. If we get to feb without a few inches yeah maybe start to get concerned

64A14546-7628-4601-8457-6A7FEDD4E374.jpeg

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