January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

[thunderman]

10 minutes ago, thunderman said:

There used to be a site that you could view the top 10 analogs in detail (upper air, surface, measured snowfall, etc.).  Does anyone remember what I am referring too? If so , do you have a link?

Found it.

CIPS Historical Analog Guidance (slu.edu)

[frd]

5 minutes ago, thunderman said:

Found it.

CIPS Historical Analog Guidance (slu.edu)

This site creates analog packages from the CPC data 

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_cpc_8-14_analog.php

 

Some examples below. 

 

 

 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

 

So close

1 hour ago, Ji said:

This guy here is the biggest warmista on Twitter

 

 

.

 

 

He said “would be hard not to get at least one big storm in that look”

1 hour ago, RDM said:

Haha - get ready Stormtracker.  The potential experience for you and your relative reminds me of the Brazilian foreign exchange student we had stay with my family 6 months when I was in HS in Ohio.  When he arrived in Feb of 77 the ONLY word of English he spoke was "COLD".  The look in his eyes when he got off the plane spoke of sheer terror as he'd never contemplated such a hellish cold environment could exist.  The extent of his winter clothes was a light weight sweater, so our first trip was to the local mall to buy him a winter coat.  (He'd never seen a mall either).  He stuck it out, but I'll never forget the look on his face when he got off the plane.    

Friends from Brazil sent their son to stay with us for his “summer” break the winter of 2002/3. He had never seen snow before in his life. At one point I remember he said “I didn’t know you lived at the North Pole.  

1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

BEST   PATTERN since 1996 

WOOF

Ok I think we’ve killed him enough on that. He jumped the gun (guidance often jumps on a pattern change too fast then backs off) but pattern wise he wasn’t totally wrong. Just a week to fast. 

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, thunderman said:

Found it.

CIPS Historical Analog Guidance (slu.edu)

I love that site. No two storms are ever exactly the same but often those analogs can hint at if guidance is over or under estimating the potential of a setup.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Its real lol. Ralph must have been kidding. Snow plow? 

This would work.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Shame the snow is hardly sticking to the roads. But on the grass it's a different story

Mdecoy recorded a T 

[WxUSAF]

@tombo82685 with a great thread on Twitter 

 

[MillvilleWx]

52 minutes ago, thunderman said:

Found it.

CIPS Historical Analog Guidance (slu.edu)

 

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I love that site. No two storms are ever exactly the same but often those analogs can hint at if guidance is over or under estimating the potential of a setup.

That site has helped us on our biggest snow and severe events around here. It was used by multiple people in this office, including me, for the recent major winter storm. Did a solid job, but this one was its own beast in other ways. Pretty awesome site to keep bookmarked. 

[Heisy]

Interesting December 27 2000 shows up on the analog list. (Obv similar pattern to the dec 30 storm) I thought the gfs snowfall map and precip orientation looked very similar

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Interesting December 27 2000 shows up on the analog list. (Obv similar pattern to the dec 30 storm) I thought the gfs snowfall map and precip orientation looked very similar

That is not a fondly remembered event here 

[CAPE]

31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This would work.

Here are the "plows" they use lol.

 

[Heisy]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That is not a fondly remembered event here 

I know, sorry. I had posted on another forum that it looked like dec 30 a bit while the gfs was coming out. It does have a lot of Miller b attributes so far on the modeling. Apologies in advance

 

let me add. Obvious differences here, but both dec 30 event and this one were bowling ball events. Probably why it’s showing up on cips along with the block.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That is not a fondly remembered event here 

A snow event didn't work on December 27th? Surprise, surprise...lol What happened that time...suppression?

[Heisy]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A snow event didn't work on December 27th? Surprise, surprise...lol What happened that time...suppression?

No it was December 30 2000. Huge dc bust. Accumulated partly sunny skies I believe lol. Forecast was like 4-8” the night of the storm. Miller b developed too Far East. Here in Philly we got 8” but Just a few miles west got nothing

[Heisy]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A snow event didn't work on December 27th? Surprise, surprise...lol What happened that time...suppression?

Snow map from gfs kind of has those same qualities. This means nothing though. No two storms are ever the same like psu said. I just use the cips site to see if heavy hitters are showing up.

[MillvilleWx]

8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Snow map from gfs kind of has those same qualities. This means nothing though. No two storms are ever the same like psu said. I just use the cips site to see if heavy hitters are showing up.

Sir. I'm gonna have to ask you politely to NEVER post this storm in here ever again. 

Sincerely,

A Scarred Meteorologist and Mid Atlantic Snow Lover 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

No it was December 30 2000. Huge dc bust. Accumulated partly sunny skies I believe lol. Forecast was like 4-8” the night of the storm. Miller b developed too Far East. Here in Philly we got 8” but Just a few miles west got nothing

Ah I see...(same thing about the date, though...moderate to big storms don't happen between Christmas and New Year's, lol)

Now...I'm still unclear on what Miller B's fo here...Now I assumed they were like a 90% failure here because of the problem of developing too late. Yet we can do better with a hybrid? @psuhoffman @CAPE or anybody else care to weigh in on this?

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Sir. I'm gonna have to ask you politely to NEVER post this storm in here ever again. 

Sincerely,

A Scarred Meteorologist and Mid Atlantic Snow Lover 

So let's see...we have this scar, and the Boxing day scar. Both between Christmas and New Year's...I rest my case, lol Never trust that time frame down here for decent snow, folks! Wait till afterward...most of the medium/big ones fall between early/mid January and President's Day.

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That is not a fondly remembered event here 

There are some similarities but some differences with how this is being modeled by the non GFS guidance ATT. The 2000 system was all NS as there had been a weak southern wave that escaped off the southeast coast right in front that left the trough approaching cut off from any STJ influence. The upper low dove in slightly north of current projections and the initial primary rounded the base of the trough to our west and lifted all the way to Cleveland before the secondary coastal developed.  The upper low then tracked across PA. The GFS upper levels look close to that storm which is why the outcome was somewhat similar but as of now other guidance not so much. And even the GFS has way more STJ interaction and the primary is coming across as far north. Just my 2 cents. 

[Amped]

15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Strong sw diving under us Tuesday per HH Euro hr 90. Sneaky clipper dusting to an inch 

More flurries.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

That is not a fondly remembered event here 

You should have banned him immediately. 

[Chris78]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

HH eps a good bit stronger with sw energy at 144 

Definitely doesn't scream suppression depression 

That looks damn good if temps will cooperate.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

HH eps a good bit stronger with sw energy at 144 

Definitely doesn't scream suppression depression 

No I was just checking it out. That is NOT going to be suppressed. It’s going to be close on thermals. Mean 850 runs right along 95. Primary is in KY but it’s moving east under the block not NE. That’s close to too far north but if it transfers from there we’re ok.  But I’ll take my chances on an amplified juiced up bomb over a string out mess. This is going to be a tough get no matter how it goes down but I think our best bet is a more amplified system that can cool the column. Yes there is a risk it tracks too far north but there are lots more risks with a suppressed solution Imo. One being the GFS late development solution. Another it simply washes out or stays south or precip is too light to overcome a warm boundary layer. I’ll take the more amped solution and roll the dice. 

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

HH eps a good bit stronger with sw energy at 144 

Definitely doesn't scream suppression depression 

Lol look at how much ridging out west. 
 

I still think this event has more chance for heartbreak then glory, but I think we’re going to be busy next week and beyond. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Lol look at how much ridging out west. 
 

I still think this event has more chance for heartbreak then glory, but I think we’re going to be busy next week and beyond. 

Yeah I mean...we weren't even expecting this to be a thing a week ago. As you said, this would be pretty much gravy on top of what could lie ahead if things keep trending well!

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

There are some similarities but some differences with how this is being modeled by the non GFS guidance ATT. The 2000 system was all NS as there had been a weak southern wave that escaped off the southeast coast right in front that left the trough approaching cut off from any STJ influence. The upper low dove in slightly north of current projections and the initial primary rounded the base of the trough to our west and lifted all the way to Cleveland before the secondary coastal developed.  The upper low then tracked across PA. The GFS upper levels look close to that storm which is why the outcome was somewhat similar but as of now other guidance not so much. And even the GFS has way more STJ interaction and the primary is coming across as far north. Just my 2 cents. 

I presented on that storm as a research paper and it was truly a cruel evolution.  Almost nobody remembers this but the shortwave or upper disturbance which produced the 12/30 storm was responsible for acting as a kicker to a previous shortwave over the southern US that was supposed to phase on 12-28 or 12-29 with a strong Great Lakes shortwave somewhere in the TN Valley or MA.  Instead the 12-30 eventual producing disturbance booted that Gulf one out to sea and the big one didn’t happen.   The storm that was initially shown on models 4-5-6 days out for 12-28-29 was a monster that would have hit everyone hard up the coast 

[Ji]

You should have banned him immediately. 

That was our first model heartbreak. Prepped us for March 2001


.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I presented on that storm as a research paper and it was truly a cruel evolution.  Almost nobody remembers this but the shortwave or upper disturbance which produced the 12/30 storm was responsible for acting as a kicker to a previous shortwave over the southern US that was supposed to phase on 12-28 or 12-29 with a strong Great Lakes shortwave somewhere in the TN Valley or MA.  Instead the 12-30 eventual producing disturbance booted that Gulf one out to sea and the big one didn’t happen.   The storm that was initially shown on models 4-5-6 days out for 12-28-29 was a monster that would have hit everyone hard up the coast 

That’s the wave I was talking about. Not only did the 12/30 SW kick it but that wave escaping so close in front ensured there would be no STJ involvement and a therefore a late development to a mature moisture feed. 

[Ji]

That’s the wave I was talking about. Not only did the 12/30 SW kick it but that wave escaping so close in front ensured there would be no STJ involvement and a therefore a late development to a mature moisture feed. 

I remember the Christmas Eve euro run. I think it came out at 7pm back then lol but it gave Richmond 1-2 feet. Dt was going nuts


.