BristowWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, Prestige Worldwide said: Suppressed to the south on the 9th- DT WILL TAKE 9 days out that works just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 i dont think we have ever got a north trend when we needed one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Strange setup at 216. Closed H5 over IN, but no surface low. Looks like something to watch on future runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 It's just nice seeing the highs and lows in the right places with an approaching wave. We get that with a legit west based -NAO. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 29 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Already noticable changes on the Euro at 90 . NS energy diving much further south through Illinois and Indiana trying to phase . Definitely lower heights then 0z setting up beyond hr 100 to the ne . Hopefully not too much confluence That’s what I was afraid of. The problem is the wave spacing and mid/upper upper level track was absolutely PERFECT for us last run! Problem was simply it wasn’t quite cold enough. That warm thermal profile allowed the surface low to track slightly inside of ideal for 95. Even that was perfect for us here. But we didn’t want “more confluence” and a more compressed flow. We simply needed it to be colder. We were barely into the heavy precip on the last run. It’s not like we wanted this to trend south. I know typically south and colder go together but in this case a south trend won’t work. That’s the right rope we’re walking. Imo what we needed was the same synoptic setup as 0z but with just a slightly colder thermal profile. 2 ways to get that. Either the guidance is simply too warm by a few degrees. That happens a lot. Or the system is slightly more amplified and thus better closed circulation to draw cold in. I was not looking for more confluence. Not sure how that would help us when we were already on the northern fringe of heavy precip! But...lot of time for more adjustments. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 That’s what I was afraid of. The problem is the wave spacing and mid/upper upper level track was absolutely PERFECT for us last run! Problem was simply it wasn’t quite cold enough. That warm thermal profile allowed the surface low to track slightly inside of ideal for 95. Even that was perfect for us here. But we didn’t want “more confluence” and a more compressed flow. We simply needed it to be colder. We were barely into the heavy precip on the last run. It’s not like we wanted this to trend south. I know typically south and colder go together but in this case a south trend won’t work. That’s the right rope we’re walking. Imo what we needed was the same synoptic setup as 0z but with just a slightly colder thermal profile. 2 ways to get that. Either the guidance is simply too warm by a few degrees. That happens a lot. Or the system is slightly more amplified and thus better closed circulation to draw cold in. I was not looking for more confluence. Not sure how that would help us when we were already on the northern fringe of heavy precip! But...lot of time for more adjustments. Yep plenty of time to adjust this is a Nina type southern scraper like 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, Amped said: Strange setup at 216. Closed H5 over IN, but no surface low. Looks like something to watch on future runs though. That was a curiosity for me as well. I realize that it’s my lack of knowledge here, but it’s always puzzled me how a weak piece of energy can produce a decent low pressure system and sometimes a strong piece produces nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 56 minutes ago, frd said: Excellent points. The GFS versus the GEFS is a complete opposite. I would really focus on the Euro and its ensembles to lead the way. Too complex it appears for the GFS Op. It is amazing to me how much the GFS Op continues to struggle with this pattern. It just wants to cut and build the southeast ridge on most runs beyond day 7-8. The difference in the 12Z runs today for the Euro and GFS day 8-10 is just astounding and it’s been several consecutive runs more or less with that idea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 16 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont think we have ever got a north trend when we needed one It happened once, can't remember what winter that was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That was a curiosity for me as well. I realize that it’s my lack of knowledge here, but it’s always puzzled me how a weak piece of energy can produce a decent low pressure system and sometimes a strong piece produces nothing. Look at all levels of the atmosphere, not just h5. In this case, look further upstairs at the strength/location of the upper jet, around 250 mb. LF quadrant = lift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 It happened once, can't remember what winter that was...2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Yep plenty of time to adjust this is a Nina type southern scraper like 2001 . You mean December 2001? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 the models cant seem to give us a snowstorm....its either inland and its a mix like last nights 00z run....or its too far south like today 12z. And then the storm from the 14th dissappeared. We are not meant to get snow no matter what the pattern is 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Yep plenty of time to adjust this is a Nina type southern scraper like 2001 . BTW I agree with Wxusaf that we get better chances after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: You mean December 2001? no sorry meant Jan 2002....i know it wasnt technically a Nina but it acted like one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, Ji said: no sorry meant Jan 2002....i know it wasnt technically a Nina but it acted like one I think it’s classified on a Niña by some and not others. Same as 96-97 and 89-90 are classified as neutral by some and weak Niña by others. 17-18 is a better example of a La Niña winter with several progressive suppressed deep southern snow events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the models cant seem to give us a snowstorm....its either inland and its a mix like last nights 00z run....or its too far south like today 12z. And then the storm from the 14th dissappeared. We are not meant to get snow no matter what the pattern is oh and the canadien gives us rain from a system too north lol. GFS supressed-No snow for you Euro supressed-no snow for you GGEM-Not supressed--still no snow for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: oh and the canadien gives us rain from a system too north lol. GFS supressed-No snow for you Euro supressed-no snow for you GGEM-Not supressed--still no snow for you Honestly you're one of about 5 people on this planet who least deserve snow 2 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 There are some nice hits among the members between the 9th and the 12th on the EPS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Honestly you're one of about 5 people on this planet who least deserve snowIf you only knew what I have to endure to get snow in my area . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 For the snow map folks- through Tuesday the 12th. ( nothing really east of the mountains before the 8th) eta- corrected for wrong date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: There are some nice hits among the members between the 9th and the 12th on the EPS. Def better than 0z....was kind of surprised looking H5. Great look but a slightly weaker sw signal than 0z. That D10 panel though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I would still rather see it slightly suppressed at this range. The old north trend isn’t what it used to be but systems do still find a way to eek north at the end more often then not. But it’s not like 20 years ago when we wanted to see it crushing Raleigh at this range. The typical north adjustment is much less then it once was. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 For the snow map folks- through Tuesday the 12th. ( nothing really east of the mountains before the 9th)That’s pretty pathetic. We saw that last year on eps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: If you only knew what I have to endure to get snow in my area . Like the soup nazi you suffer for your snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCAPS Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I would still rather see it slightly suppressed at this range. The old north trend isn’t what it used to be but systems do still find a way to eek north at the end more often then not. But it’s not like 20 years ago when we wanted to see it crushing Raleigh at this range. The typical north adjustment is much less then it once was. Why is that? In simple terms, what makes this a reality most of the time? And I apologise for what I'm sure is a dumb question most here don't need to ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I would still rather see it slightly suppressed at this range. The old north trend isn’t what it used to be but systems do still find a way to eek north at the end more often then not. But it’s not like 20 years ago when we wanted to see it crushing Raleigh at this range. The typical north adjustment is much less then it once was. I think it has a lot to do with the pattern. In this case with a stout block in place/strong confluence, there probably wont be as much of a tendency for north trends towards game time. More likely to tick south a tad. I agree about it being a bit suppressed this far out- it's right on the doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I would still rather see it slightly suppressed at this range. The old north trend isn’t what it used to be but systems do still find a way to eek north at the end more often then not. But it’s not like 20 years ago when we wanted to see it crushing Raleigh at this range. The typical north adjustment is much less then it once was. with the big storm we had up here the middle of December central PA was in the bullseye for about 3 straight days on most guidance. then when within 24 hours all the models started moving the heaviest north. ended up about 150 miles further north into southern New York state when all was said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: That’s pretty pathetic. We saw that last year on eps . I actually agree, totals seem near climo, and does not match the potential of the pattern. Then again, who really knows, and besides the best potential may be after this time period. Anyone seriously considering this as the most likely outcome needs to reassess. However, if the mean hits 5 or more inches then it has real statistical importance and I would get more hopeful of seeing a significant snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 42 minutes ago, Ji said: the models cant seem to give us a snowstorm....its either inland and its a mix like last nights 00z run....or its too far south like today 12z. And then the storm from the 14th dissappeared. We are not meant to get snow no matter what the pattern is 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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