WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 That northern stream energy late Tuesday is worth watching. Could be dusting-1” type deal for colder spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Much better confluence on gfs at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Icon has a totally different evolution then Euro. More GFS like. System for the 8th is all northern stream and runs to our north but then it has a wave right on its heels. Gfs has better separation. That northern branch piece isn’t interfering this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 As you can see that pesky northern piece isn’t screwing up the flow. Let’s see what happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 12z cmc at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 This is a cool animation and notice the subtle negative getting closer to the East coast . Everything thing is retrograding. One could speculate if going forward in time beyond this range the negative may become focused even further SW. Would like to see the Pac to improve further. As psu posted the official reversal near Jan 5th, then if you go by HM's post a few days ago, the coldest air would be near day 20 and beyond, that would be near Jan 25 th. There is not as consensus at the present time from the folks I follow as to the eventual location9s) that impacts the brunt of the SSWE event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: 12z cmc at 120 Definitely better/different on GFS. 1032 pressing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Cmon 168-174...god give us one digital win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Cmon 180-192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Cmon 168-174...god give us one digital win There’s that suppression I was looking for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 not going to cut it this run but the cold air is much better at least.......baby steps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: There’s that suppression I was looking for! Yes just where...you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 the Jan 11th threat on the GFS went bye bye.....ugh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I'm only here for the maps with the pretty colors on them that almost never verify. The other stuff I can get anywhere else... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 @CAPE cmc illustrated what I mean by needing a clean transfer and tightly would (synced up closed mid level circulation). It has a perfect upper level and surface track to get at least some snow into the cities but it doesn’t really phase up well or quickly in the mid levels. It’s too diffuse. Add just a bit of amplitude though and that might work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 30 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: the Jan 11th threat on the GFS went bye bye.....ugh I wouldn't put too much stock in the GFS right now. Seems to be struggling on how it is handling the blocking in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 On 12/30/2020 at 1:28 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Just looked at the record...dang, what the heck happened that March? 21" inches at BWI? Lol yeah, the second half of that winter was very active. the first half of that winter was basically snowless everywhere. we had a severely negative ao/nao the entire winter though. i'm guessing the first half of the winter must have been a lot of suppression. eventually the dam broke and we cashed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 GEFS made a big jump south for the 8th. Para-GFS is strong and wound up however. Lots of options. I still think anything before late in the second week of January is gravy. But odds for gravy have definitely gone up. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 i've noticed on tropical tidbits, the icon never depicts precip that is a mix or ice. it only shows rain or snow. any idea why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 The CMC is much colder overall throughout the run than the GFS. One thing I never considered when I saw the blocking being advertised a couple of weeks ago is how much the really cold air is trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The CMC is much colder overall throughout the run than the GFS. One thing I never considered when I saw the blocking being advertised a couple of weeks ago is how much the really cold air is trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. We’re going to have to make this work with domestic cold for a while. We’ve done it before in blocking. But it does add a level of difficulty. ETA: the gfs has been REALLY struggling lately with not just synoptic but major longwave features. It’s had some runs of quality in the past but lately it’s been lost. Until I see signs it’s got it’s act together and can handle this pattern I’m giving it even less weight then normal. GFS has a lot less stratosphere resolution then the euro. I don’t know about the CMC. But the gfs was way off on the strat warm, delaying it by a week. I wonder if given what’s going on now that component is really hurting it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Sure did. Nice bump with western ridging as well . That ridging is a bit Far East...remember we have 2 problems here. Temps but also suppression. We need the suppression given the marginal temps but that’s a pretty stout block:50/50 combo. Too much of a good thing and the wave gets squashed to our southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: That ridging is a bit Far East...remember we have 2 problems here. Temps but also suppression. We need the suppression given the marginal temps but that’s a pretty stout block:50/50 combo. Too much of a good thing and the wave gets squashed to our southeast. It is, but I’ve also noticed there’s been more spacing between the wave and the western ridging. That PAC trough pulling back also pulls the ridging west. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Excited for the Euro. I have a good feeling. Nevermind it was gas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 12z GFS/CMC definitely trended in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But it does add a level of difficulty. ETA: the gfs has been REALLY struggling lately with not just synoptic but major longwave features. It’s had some runs of quality in the past but lately it’s been lost. Until I see signs it’s got it’s act together and can handle this pattern I’m giving it even less weight then normal. GFS has a lot less stratosphere resolution then the euro Excellent points. The GFS versus the GEFS is a complete opposite. I would really focus on the Euro and its ensembles to lead the way. Too complex it appears for the GFS Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 46 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The CMC is much colder overall throughout the run than the GFS. One thing I never considered when I saw the blocking being advertised a couple of weeks ago is how much the really cold air is trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. Not as much of an issue up North, but from say Wilmington, DE. and points South and Southwest we really do need some colder air poised in our source regions. The cold nearby is marginal at best. As psu stated, it adds another element to consider ( and may I add worry about ) when the 500 pattern screams snowstorm, but in reality it is only rain or snow to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Already noticable changes on the Euro at 90 . NS energy diving much further south through Illinois and Indiana trying to phase . Definitely lower heights then 0z setting up beyond hr 100 to the ne . Hopefully not too much confluence The confluence looks a lot further SW this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 47 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It is, but I’ve also noticed there’s been more spacing between the wave and the western ridging. That PAC trough pulling back also pulls the ridging west. Yes...if that trend continues and we get a bit more space that wave can amplify. Normally more amplified isn’t good with a marginal airmass because it will often mean it pumps heights in front and further north solution. But in this setup if we also see a continued improvement wrt the 50/50 in front we could get both more amplified but still a south solution. That’s the combo we need. With such a crap airmass were walking a tightrope even though it’s a really good setup at h5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Suppressed to the south on the 9th- DT WILL TAKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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