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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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19 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

6z eps at end of its run 144hrs93772A07-84E3-461D-8482-A8FAB0D26E9E.png

I think you posted 0z, but the thing that jumps out to me over the last 48hrs is the western ridging building behind that shortwave and the PAC trough pulling back. That helps force the low under us.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Thats a honkable map. But someone will undoubtedly remind everyone here thare marginal. marginal.

Just has to be cold enough at the right time. Last winter we were staring down a gun barrel.  Things are looking up.

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48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think you posted 0z, but the thing that jumps out to me over the last 48hrs is the western ridging building behind that shortwave and the PAC trough pulling back. That helps force the low under us.

The pac trough has crashed in a couple times only to quickly pull back, despite at times guidance indicating it would be a more extended problem.   That’s one reason I was never too concerned about the pac ruining things in the longer term. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The pac trough has crashed in a couple times only to quickly pull back, despite at times guidance indicating it would be a more extended problem.   That’s one reason I was never too concerned about the pac ruining things in the longer term. 

With that western ridging, it’s turning into a very classic snow look for us at 500mb. Yes, cold air is an issue @WinterWxLuvr

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE will be happy to know the GEFS has a cluster of suppressed Richmond snowstorm solutions. 

Yeah I saw that. I like seeing some spread with at least a few southern solutions at range. I think the potential ramps up beginning around the 10th. Not too enthused for anything later next week for my yard. 

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I saw that. I like seeing some spread with at least a few southern solutions at range. I think the potential ramps up beginning around the 10th. Not too enthused for anything later next week for my yard. 

Sometimes flukes happen but with a marginal airmass and that 8th system originating pretty far north to our west, I agree that would be a tough ask for the eastern shore. 

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One seasonal trend I’ve noticed is things tending to trend colder overall. I had snowcover for a week that looked like a torch from long range. That storm was a lakes cutter from 10 days out. Right now I was supposed to be torching and I had a snow sleet mix all day yesterday and awaiting freezing rain now. So far this is not a year where warmer automatically wins on guidance. We are lacking any true arctic air but at least we have that going for us. 

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sometimes flukes happen but with a marginal airmass and that 8th system originating pretty far north to our west, I agree that would be a tough ask for the eastern shore. 

It's not out of the question with that EPS look. It would take a damn near perfect track to get it done.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Looking better and better 

 

 

 

Once they reverse they stay that way for at least 10 days, however, the event is still unfolding and the entire progression will be cool to watch for implications during the month of February.

 

  Ensemble plume

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's not out of the question with that EPS look. It would take a damn near perfect track to get it done.

I doubt it can gain much (if any) latitude once to the east coast and with that h5 pass it’s possible. But the coastal plain needs 2 things to go well.  1. Get the storm to transfer to the coast quick and clean. 2. I say clean because once it does you need it to be a tightly wound system synced up at all levels (unlike the mid dec storm). Need the surface mid and upper levels to come together. No broad diffuse system that takes a while to redevelop off the coast. But if you get those 2 things with the current h5 look I could see a better result for the lowlands. But those are 2 big asks. 

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8 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

Once they reverse they stay that way for at least 10 days, however, the event is still unfolding and the entire progression will be cool to watch for implications during the month of February.

 

  Ensemble plume

It looks like one of the more impressive events we’ve tracked and given the already pathetic state of the TPV it wouldn’t take much coupling at all to knock it out for the count this winter. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It looks like of the more impressive events we’ve tracked and given the already pathetic state of the TPV it wouldn’t take much coupling at all to knock it out for the count this winter.

Not saying there is a relationship, but this event is interesting on the heels of the SH SSWE which was remarkable,  and I believe long lasting,  with an extended period of very deep negatives.    

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