BristowWx Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 18 minutes ago, Ji said: Cmc may be trying to brew up something d9 10 CMC sucks walnuts. Hate that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 The gfs and gefs look like crap in the LR. They’ve reversed over the last few days. Very worrisome 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 14 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: The gfs and gefs look like crap in the LR. They’ve reversed over the last few days. Very worrisome GFS/GEFS decided the vortex that’s been in the WPO domain west of AK is going to shift east into AK. If that’s true we’re toast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: GFS/GEFS decided the vortex that’s been in the WPO domain west of AK is going to shift east into AK. If that’s true we’re toast. Of course it's true. The models are deadly accurate when it comes to screwing us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 GEFS has been trending that way for a few runs now. EPS still looks ok, but we all know the PAC is precarious, and we also know a gigantic, perfectly placed, sustained west based -NAO is not likely to materialize and completely save us. We are going to have to navigate a pattern with warts in the coming weeks, and hopefully we get a few chances, just like always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Of course it's true. The models are deadly accurate when it comes to screwing us. Last time they did that in early December it was wrong. The vortex never fully shifted and the pattern never broke down. So I wouldn’t assume yet. But the trend the last 24 hours has been pretty brutal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 As for the NYE/day "threat", EPS says nope(maybe one member suggestive of frozen). GEFS has 6 or 7, with a couple nice hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Last time they did that in early December it was wrong. The vortex never fully shifted and the pattern never broke down. So I wouldn’t assume yet. But the trend the last 24 hours has been pretty brutal. Extended GEFS suggests its temporary. Keep in mind the latest run is from 0z yesterday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Lol you guys should do your doom analysis tomorrow enjoy the day with your families...model runs will be there waiting for you....save the thaw talk until the 26th. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 EURO Weeklies for around the same time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Hopefully the SSW will save us. Rocking feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 26 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Hopefully the SSW will save us. Rocking feb? You should visit @WxWatcher007 or take a road trip to the Tughill region of NY. We'll have chances over the next 4 weeks. Not going to be wall-to-wall. Just have to have patience and the windows will present themselves eventually. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: lol don’t come here...my pack went from about 8” to mud in less than 24 hours. Grinch brings wintertime gloom to all. Merry Christmas! Can the reaper be reaped? Asking for a friend. Merry Christmas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You should visit @WxWatcher007 or take a road trip to the Tughill region of NY. We'll have chances over the next 4 weeks. Not going to be wall-to-wall. Just have to have patience and the windows will present themselves eventually. I was thinking of chasing the LES today but with holidays and work just can’t do it. I’ll have another chase worthy storm at some point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Judah suggesting we might have good golfing weather in the east for the first part of Jan. @leesburg 04 Thaw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 I looked at the individual members on the 0z GEFS for later in the run, and the east coast ridge "look" under the block depicted on the mean is largely a function of spread. There is a camp that has a pronounced trough out west, and some that may be amplifying a storm in the central US during that time frame. Another camp is not suggestive of higher h5 heights in the east at all. We just cant know yet. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: I looked at the induvial members on the 0z GEFS for later in the run, and the east coast ridge "look" under the block depicted on the mean is largely a function of spread. There is a camp that has a pronounced trough out west, and some that may be amplifying a storm in the central US during that time frame. Another camp is not suggestive of higher h5 heights in the east at all. We just cant know yet. Patience. Go with the Warner solution. Always. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Go with the Warner solution. Always. Having that expectation is always the smart call around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 so we have a -ao/-nao/+pna, and yet all storms cut west of chicago for the next two weeks? teleconnections are basically meaningless if that's how we roll now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: so we have a -ao/-nao/+pna, and yet all storms cut west of chicago for the next two weeks? teleconnections are basically meaningless if that's how we roll now. The calculated numbers aren't always indicative of the placement/timing/interplay of the key features, and the actual influence on sensible weather. That being said, it is possible that the pattern might need to be more "perfect" in order to get a favorable outcome than in the past, especially for places with borderline climo for snow. That is mostly speculation at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 If you liked the weather for Christmas Eve, you’ll LOVE what the 12z GFS is cooking up for New Years Eve. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: If you liked the weather for Christmas Eve, you’ll LOVE what the 12z GFS is cooking up for New Years Eve. no mas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: no mas More yellows and oranges for your [soggy] backyard. In all seriousness, I think we should all just pack our patience...I do think we’ll see an evolution but it’ll probably be slower than many want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: The calculated numbers aren't always indicative of the placement/timing/interplay of the key features, and the actual influence on sensible weather. That being said, it is possible that the pattern might need to be more "perfect" in order to get a favorable outcome than in the past, especially for places with borderline climo for snow. That is mostly speculation at this point though. well, in this case, it appears the rain/snow line for these storms is west of chicago. montreal, quebec and even labrador are getting rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Go with the Warner solution. Always. The Warner Wolf solution? Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, benjammin said: The Warner Wolf solution? Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk To the video tape!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 19 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: well, in this case, it appears the rain/snow line for these storms is west of chicago. montreal, quebec and even labrador are getting rain. The pattern is extremely active and amplified. The anticyclonic wave breaking in the EPAC is sending chunks of energy into the western US and as it amplifies, ridging builds downstream over the east. The NAO block is not really there yet- there is some NA ridging, but its not stable and mostly too far east over the next week or so. With all the moving parts it is possible for something to materialize- probably a trailing wave, as we have seen on some op runs, but otherwise we are probably...wait for it... 10 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: The pattern is extremely active and amplified. The anticyclonic wave breaking in the EPAC is sending chunks of energy into the western US and as it amplifies, ridging builds downstream over the east. The NAO block is not really there yet- there is some NA ridging, but its not stable and mostly too far east over the NA the next week or so. With all the moving parts it is possible for something to materialize- probably a trailing wave, as we have seen on some op runs, but otherwise we are probably...wait for it... 10 days away! Appears our best shot the new 10 days or so would be a trailing wave or a clipper. The GFS tries to bring a clipper through after our NYE deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 24 minutes ago, nj2va said: More yellows and oranges for your [soggy] backyard. In all seriousness, I think we should all just pack our patience...I do think we’ll see an evolution but it’ll probably be slower than many want. Goes to show, both humans and models still possess debatable value beyond a certain point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: The pattern is extremely active and amplified. The anticyclonic wave breaking in the EPAC is sending chunks of energy into the western US and as it amplifies, ridging builds downstream over the east. The NAO block is not really there yet- there is some NA ridging, but its not stable and mostly too far east over the next week or so. With all the moving parts it is possible for something to materialize- probably a trailing wave, as we have seen on some op runs, but otherwise we are probably...wait for it... 10 days away! I don't mind it being 10 days away...as long as tomorrow its 9 days away 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts