psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Pretty meager in Midland proper unfortunately. I provided a mini rant in the Banter thread. I got it out of my system lol A lot of my CWA got historic snowfall though, so I'm Ugh I’m sorry. Any chance you can take a road trip home sometime as we get out back to back to back HECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 17 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That's for sure. Part of my snark was in reference to that map resembling our epic run in 2010. Obviously, capitalizing on every single wave phase we had is unlikely, but the recipe for multiple storms and/or a big Kahuna is raised pretty significantly with the addition of blocking and greater height falls focused off the Mid Atlantic coast with lower height averages over Dixie and the lower Tennessee Valley. The fact it's inside 10 days to the pattern evolution is the best part of this if you're a winter weenie in the east coast Hell, if we manage like back-to-back-to-back 5" - 10" event in the course of like 2 weeks that would be 100%+ of climo for everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Ugh I’m sorry. Any chance you can take a road trip home sometime as we get out back to back to back HECS? Our new schedule starts PP1 (Sunday to be precise). I work a fair amount of 10 day stretches with 4 day weekends, so there will be opportunities to get away for a bit. My wife would probably come with me and we can hang out and watch the snowfall. Would love to come home for a little break and some snow. Trying to stay away from Covid too, so it'll be a play it by ear deal for sure. Fingers crossed for stars aligning there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hell, if we manage like back-to-back-to-back 5" - 10" event in the course of like 2 weeks that would be 100%+ of climo for everyone. I hope so. I'd love to track more snow with my crazy weather family 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Don't know how you post tweets but Bastardi referenced Snowmageddon come Jan 10 and on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 GFS says no cold air around for the Jan 8th threat...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: GFS says no cold air around for the Jan 8th threat...... Euro phases the northern and southern stream lows and then pulls a high pressure in from Canada. GFS keeps the streams separate and the northern stream moves through the lakes and just obliterates the airmass into subtropical garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Yeah looks good through Jan, fwiw ofc.How about feb?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 17 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Don't know how you post tweets but Bastardi referenced Snowmageddon come Jan 10 and on. Great, the jinx is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 18 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Don't know how you post tweets but Bastardi referenced Snowmageddon come Jan 10 and on. For once he is late to the hype party. And not totally wrong. The danger in those analogs is there were other examples of that pattern that didn’t max out to that degree. It’s always dangerous to use the most extreme example of a pattern to set the bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 23 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Don't know how you post tweets but Bastardi referenced Snowmageddon come Jan 10 and on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Looks like the storm on the 14th correlates with what PSU was talking about yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: But FRD said it was gonna be neutral in a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But FRD said it was gonna be neutral in a little bit It's human nature to fear the end of something really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 -5 SD AO! If that verifies then I may see the coldest rain in years! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nice comparison to our H5 patterns for our best storms. Clearly the upcoming pattern favors us more than NYC and points north. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: -5 SD AO! If that verifies then I may see the coldest rain in years! 32.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's human nature to fear the end of something really good. Not sure that applies. There’s a definite slant to his posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nice comparison to our H5 patterns for our best storms. Clearly the upcoming pattern favors us more than NYC and points north. I noticed that in his post too! The -5 AO though...how long we been waiting to see that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I noticed that in his post too! The -5 AO though...how long we been waiting to see that? Suppression Congrats Charlotte 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Suppression Congrats Charlotte Thanks Ji 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS couple of big hits toward the end of the period. No sign of suppression on these maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: It's human nature to fear the end of something really good. Exactly. Thank you for clearing that up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS couple of big hits toward the end of the period. No sign of suppression on these maps. Why do you think no sign of suppression is a good thing at this range? Hint- It's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 13 minutes ago, frd said: Exactly. Thank you for clearing that up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: Why do you think no sign of suppression is a good thing at this range? Hint- It's not. Got to smell the rain to get the best snows... I find the discussions informative and very useful. But you need a little luck which no model can forecast. In other words you don’t always get a blizzard in a great pattern and you don’t always get shut out in an overall crap pattern. No big storms over the next seven days seems pretty certain. By next weekend, hopefully there will be something to track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: Why do you think no sign of suppression is a good thing at this range? Hint- It's not. Normally with the gfs I agree. But for some reason the GFS has been cutting storms into the block in the long range while other guidance is more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Normally with the gfs I agree. But for some reason the GFS has been cutting storms into the block in the long range while other guidance is more suppressed. If the block is legit, we should be seeing some suppressed outcomes across ens guidance. I cant imagine the upgraded GFS/GEFS would be much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Has GEFS been upgraded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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