frd Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When my worst case is we end up with a mediocre instead of great patter (AFTER) a week of a great pattern...we’re doing pretty good. I am sure that you are aware that the stratospheric warming event seems to pulse the polar vortex into Northern Canada then shifts it around so there may be two great time periods separated by average to even sub-par. The GFS NH polar vortex elipse shows the movement at long range. Also, another or secondary warming may be in the cards. This may lead to another deep dive down in Late Jan. So much to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 BTW I did not include 2013 and 2006 (even though they are being tossed around) in my comps because I don’t think they are as good matches. Feb 2013 the blocking was centered way too far NE for what we want and the PAC was an absolute floating dumpster fire level awful. March 2013 the pattern did get legit good and I know no one wants to hear that...but it was part bad luck and part just being a little too late. We got 2 perfect bowling balls that month but temps were marginal on the coastal plain (which is often a March issue) and both failed to come together perfectly to overcome that. You move both those storms to Jan/Feb and DC would have had 12” and 6” storms from those 2 systems. 2006 again the blocking was centered a bit east of ideal AND the pac was a lot worse then the base state has been so far this year. The result was an eastern trough centered too far north for our purposes. And yet we did still manage one MECS. But it wasn’t a great period overall. The look right now on all guidance (supported by a natural evolution of the base state we have seen so far in the Atlantic and Pac) looks a lot more like the evolution in 2009/2010/2016/2018. Obviously 2018 was significantly later in winter then the other 3 so you have to adjust for that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, CAPE said: This might be about as negative as the NAO can get. The AO is also super negative at the end of that run. Alright kids...sing it: So-lar min min min min-min min-min So-lar min min min min-min min-min So-lar min min min min-min min-min So-lar min! 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 Sorry on phone and saw these tweets https://mobile.twitter.com/KaptMands/status/1344674654154326017 https://mobile.twitter.com/KaptMands/status/1344676487144873987 https://mobile.twitter.com/KaptMands/status/1344677750469242880 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think we get teased in the Jan 7-15 time period. Maybe something does work out then. It wouldn’t shock me. The difference between “great” winters or periods of winters and “fine” are usually whether we luck our way into some marginal events. By many numeric indices (AO, etc) we’re going to underperform this December. For the folks north of the Fall Line, it’s going to be a “fine” December. But could have been better. We’ll see what January offers. By recent standards I think it was a great December in the NW 1/3 of the region. I had about 12” up here. That’s a great December even by my standards. I’m 1/3 to median snowfall with my 3 snowiest months to come. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 9 minutes ago, frd said: I am sure that you are aware that the stratospheric warming event seems to pulse the polar vortex into Northern Canada then shifts it around so there may be two great time periods separated by average to even sub-par. The GFS NH polar vortex elipse shows the movement at long range. Also, another or secondary warming may be in the cards. This may lead to another deep dive down in Late Jan. So much to consider. I am not really factoring in the SSW just going by typical progression of what we see now. Maybe the SSW screws it up but I’m not versed enough in that to say. There was a SSW early in 2009/10 (then another in Feb 2010) and that never disrupted the -NAO. The pac took a dump on us for most of January but the AO/NAO remained tanked. The blocking that set in after the Feb 2018 SSW rolled straight through to May. But I’ve seen examples of this wax/wane pattern you are talking about also. We are still early enough that we could still cash in on another tanking of the AO in Feb into Mar if that’s how it goes down. That would be 1960 like. And yea I know some people just groaned but it’s December and people are acting like it’s February probably because of last year being so awful and missing a good threat in Dec. I get it patience is low. But snow in our area is an anomaly and you take it WHENEVER it comes!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 Even @griteater and @RaleighWx are talking it up https://mobile.twitter.com/griteater/status/1344672340983087104 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Hopefully the block retrogrades all the way to the EPO domain. Right now the GFS long range is really giving me a Feb 98 vibe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Top current analog to next weeks pattern is late January 1958. That would probably again force more patience then most have or want to have (it was another 2 weeks before things really got good)...but the end result of that pattern was a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Lol look at these closed 500mb shortwaves tracking south of us on the GFS and just a rotten airmass. Please Jesus let that continue once we get even some marginal airmass. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Lol look at these closed 500mb shortwaves tracking south of us on the GFS and just a rotten airmass. Please Jesus let that continue once we get even some marginal airmass. That’s the plan and USUALLY how this pattern progresses. Not always. Always risk. Btw not shocked the GFS folded to everything else wrt losing the cutters into the block idea. Also not shocked we will still have temp issues though. The para GFS seems to be crushing it compared to the old op version. The new fv3 system really is a huge upgrade and ncep just needed time to fine tune it. Maybe over time they may close the gap with the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Lol gfs gets a storm trapped off the mid Atlantic for 48 hours and finally cools the column enough to give @Ji his digital snow. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 23 minutes ago, Amped said: Hopefully the block retrogrades all the way to the EPO domain. Right now the GFS long range is really giving me a Feb 98 vibe There is some similarities but some key differences. the pac pulls back way more then that on all guidance. Actually it pulls back too much on some long range guidance and the western ridge gets a bit too far west if anything. That block is centered too far SW with a trough over Greenland. The look across Europe and North Atlantic is not similar at all. Overall that doesn’t look as much like what the long range guidance is spitting our right now as some other years Imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 WB GFS Day 12....hopefully sign of things to come for January. I actually am very satisfied with December. Close to 8 inches and chilly. Wish everyone a healthy and happy New Year! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol gfs gets a storm trapped off the mid Atlantic for 48 hours and finally cools the column enough to give @Ji his digital snow. GGEM tracks the Jan 8 storm south of us and snows on VA. MD fringed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That would probably again force more patience then most have or want to have (it was another 2 weeks before things really got good)...but the end result of that pattern was a win Ji would have to punt all of January. But, rejoice in February. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM tracks the Jan 8 storm south of us and snows on VA. MD fringed Yea all I’m taking away meaningful so far is the Jan 7-15 period is trending colder across guidance. Cold enough? We will see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea all I’m taking away meaningful so far is the Jan 7-15 period is trending colder across guidance. Cold enough? We will see. Yup, it has heartbreak written all over it. You, @losetoa6, @HighStakes, and @mappy manage 1-3” of slop while the rest of us enjoy 35F rain. 40F for @CAPE and DCA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 NWS just issued for NW zones MDZ003-004-VAZ027-028-030-031-040-501-505-WVZ050>053-055-011100- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0018.210101T1500Z-210102T0600Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke- Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan- Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- 1231 PM EST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch, with the highest amounts in the higher elevations. A small accumulation of snow and sleet is also possible at the onset. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday. Freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet at the start, will move into the area Friday midday and then gradually change to rain Friday afternoon and evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 26 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB GFS Day 12....hopefully sign of things to come for January. I actually am very satisfied with December. Close to 8 inches and chilly. Wish everyone a healthy and happy New Year! Day 12 is hour 288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Deepest trough in the northern Hemisphere showing up over the eastern US. And a tiny spec of “Barney” for the first time in how long... Now that’s a classic look. That PAC is just right. Still way out though 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Their ability to predict the high latitudes that far out is very low. The reason I had confidence in the blocking coming now is it made sense wrt progression of features I could already see and had faith in not in fantasy land ranges. It’s normal for blocking to wax and wane and sometimes a relax is when our best chances come. We don’t want a full break down but I’m not worrying about that yet. Guidance has spooked us many times breaking down blocking at long range only to have it simply be a relax or in some cases not even a relax. History strongly suggests when we see blocking of this magnitude develop it lingers quite a while. I would ride that for now. Models always try and break down blocks to fast, once the blocking actually comes to fruition. Seen it tons of times 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I think we get teased in the Jan 7-15 time period. Maybe something does work out then. It wouldn’t shock me. The difference between “great” winters or periods of winters and “fine” are usually whether we luck our way into some marginal events. By many numeric indices (AO, etc) we’re going to underperform this December. For the folks north of the Fall Line, it’s going to be a “fine” December. But could have been better. We’ll see what January offers. I agree with this. I’ve been watching the trends in the GFS and it’s increasing mean H5 trough over the 6-10 day period. The troughs with each sw seem to dig deeper and cut just a little less each run. I actually wouldn’t be surprise if we start seeing some runs in next 1-2 days that pick up on a 5-7 day out evolution. Maybe a piece of trailing energy off one of these apps runners? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 I like the long range 12z GEFS even more. Better ridge axis out west. Lower heights in the Atlantic. It’s getting even closer to “THE” look 10 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I like the long range 12z GEFS even more. Better ridge axis out west. Lower heights in the Atlantic. It’s getting even closer to “THE” look Talk dirty......................... I like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Talk dirty......................... I like it. Sir, this is a weather message board. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 This is starting to look as close as you can get on a long range ensemble to our big snow look.. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is starting to look as close as you can get on a long range ensemble to our big snow look.. Eric Webb commented that the long-range GEFS was starting to look like a weenie run overnight . This afternoon's run only reinforces that trend and outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 January 8th starting to become a threat??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro continues the colder trend for day 7-9 period. the storm tried to cut and just got bullied south lol.....this is becoming a threat 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 That Euro run was eye-opening from hour 168 forward looking at 500mb anomalies. Getting closer in time. Buckle up! 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 That Euro run was eye-opening from hour 168 forward looking at 500mb anomalies. Getting closer in time. Buckle up!Id like to see a more south trend but not to the point of suppression haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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