Ji Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 i have seen 45 straight images posted in this thread...not one shows any digital snow 4 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: i have seen 45 straight images posted in this thread...not one shows any digital snow Lol...yeah Ill bite and be a weenie with you. I think its usually pretty bad when the models dont even show digital fantasy snow. i have a feeling we'll just keep chasing this dream pattern being talked about but of course I have nothing to back that up, other than several years straight of dismal snow winters IMB 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 29 minutes ago, yoda said: Lock in biggest since '96. Snowshovels are already selling out locally as the masses become aware of the upcoming pattern. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ji said: i have seen 45 straight images posted in this thread...not one shows any digital snow So what's your bar for this potential pattern mine is 13" total for the rest of the winter at IAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ji said: i have seen 45 straight images posted in this thread...not one shows any digital snow I did see mention of biting and weenie so check that off the list....actually I believe the op output will start to reflect the block, if its real, and we'll see the digital effects. but I am with you I saw the 6z at 288 and thought another cutter...I thought suppression would be more evident....we shall see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 14 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So what's your bar for this potential pattern mine is 13" total for the rest of the winter at IAD? id do 13 inches at the minumum. 20-30 would be what we should accept based on the hype. I mean all we do is talk about -AO/-NAO and this is setting up as an extreme during the heart of witner 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ji said: id do 13 inches at the minumum. 20-30 would be what we should accept based on the hype. I mean all we do is talk about -AO/-NAO and this is setting up as an extreme during the heart of witner Mattie agrees with your assessment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 20 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Mattie agrees with your assessment who is mattie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, yoda said: lulz Oddly the pattern better matches Feb 2010 then Dec 2010 on profs wrt blocking and trough location imo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 34 minutes ago, Ji said: id do 13 inches at the minumum. 20-30 would be what we should accept based on the hype. I mean all we do is talk about -AO/-NAO and this is setting up as an extreme during the heart of witner But we are still within a rather hostile pac background state and a healthy Nina to boot so maybe we need to be realistic. For me I feel like getting a good result “for a Nina” should be the goal. At least one nice region wide warning level storm and to beat median snowfall. That’s pretty rare for a Nina. History says when we get blocking in a Nina we get some snow and avoid a total dud winter but only 1996 had big results by non Nina standards. But 1996 is out there as “possible” but setting the bar at a 1/100 year type outcome for a Nina is kinda setting yourself up to be disappointed Imo. But you do disappointed well...it’s your defining characteristic so I guess roll with it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 @Ji btw I am not saying I don’t dream bigger or a bigger result isn’t very plausible. There are some signs the Nina isn’t driving this bus. Maybe we cash in big. But I personally don’t like to set my bar that high and be disappointed all the time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Deepest trough in the northern Hemisphere showing up over the eastern US. And a tiny spec of “Barney” for the first time in how long... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Pretty sure this temp profile will work fine 14 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Pretty sure this temp profile will work fine Have you checked out the super long-range Arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillation they seem to approach neutral after being very deeply negative . Doyou agree with this assessment , again I am only looking at one model what do you think? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 @Ji we gonna do our normal “thing” again where the first week of a blocking regime you whine constantly about “what good is a block when it’s still not snowing” and I say wait we typically do better on the backside of blocking regimes not the front. Just asking. I’m ready. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, frd said: Have you checked out the super long-range Arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillation they seem to approach neutral after being very deeply negative . Doyou agree with this assessment , again I am only looking at one model what do you think? Why exactly are you choosing now to talk about the pattern relaxing or breaking down? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji we gonna do our normal “thing” again where the first week of a blocking regime you whine constantly about “what good is a block when it’s still not snowing” and I say wait we typically do better on the backside of blocking regimes not the front. Just asking. I’m ready. Lol.Wash.Rinse.Repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, frd said: Have you checked out the super long-range Arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillation they seem to approach neutral after being very deeply negative . Doyou agree with this assessment , again I am only looking at one model what do you think? Their ability to predict the high latitudes that far out is very low. The reason I had confidence in the blocking coming now is it made sense wrt progression of features I could already see and had faith in not in fantasy land ranges. It’s normal for blocking to wax and wane and sometimes a relax is when our best chances come. We don’t want a full break down but I’m not worrying about that yet. Guidance has spooked us many times breaking down blocking at long range only to have it simply be a relax or in some cases not even a relax. History strongly suggests when we see blocking of this magnitude develop it lingers quite a while. I would ride that for now. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 @frd we will see what tonight’s EPS weekly says but the last run and the extended GEFS runs this week linger blocking straight through into February. My biggest fear isn’t the high latitudes it’s the pacific. But not the fear others have. I’m actually more worried if the N PAC vortex pattern breaks down we resume a more canonical Nina look. This here from the GEFS extended would be problematic. We would be fighting a SE ridge in that look. We want that N PAC trough to stick around to direct that ridging into the west coast more and keep it from popping out there in the central PAC. ETA: it’s way far out and not worth really worrying about yet. Just saying if we fail that’s my most likely reason. EETA: that look isn’t the worst. It’s not a shutout look. But it’s a look that mutes our chances to cash in a but. Storms might try to amplify west...or we could see a typical Nina miller B pattern with that look that makes it harder to cash in here. Still there a better look then we had all last year just pointing out what my bigger fear then the blocking is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: ETA: it’s way far out and not worth really worrying about yet. Just saying if we fail that’s my most likely reason. Now you know that caveat won't work...worrying will always commence, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Deepest trough in the northern Hemisphere showing up over the eastern US. And a tiny spec of “Barney” for the first time in how long... Rubble or the dinosaur? (but seriously what are you referring too? Lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Rubble or the dinosaur? (but seriously what are you referring too? Lol) 2 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @frd we will see what tonight’s EPS weekly says but the last run and the extended GEFS runs this week linger blocking straight through into February. My biggest fear isn’t the high latitudes it’s the pacific. But not the fear others have. I’m actually more worried if the N PAC vortex pattern breaks down we resume a more canonical Nina look. This here from the GEFS extended would be problematic. We would be fighting a SE ridge in that look. We want that N PAC trough to stick around to direct that ridging into the west coast more and keep it from popping out there in the central PAC. ETA: it’s way far out and not worth really worrying about yet. Just saying if we fail that’s my most likely reason. EETA: that look isn’t the worst. It’s not a shutout look. But it’s a look that mutes our chances to cash in a but. Storms might try to amplify west...or we could see a typical Nina miller B pattern with that look that makes it harder to cash in here. Still there a better look then we had all last year just pointing out what my bigger fear then the blocking is. we just can't have nice things 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: we just can't have nice things When my worst case is we end up with a mediocre instead of great patter (AFTER) a week of a great pattern...we’re doing pretty good. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 8 hours ago, yoda said: Getting there... but still a bit more work to do This might be about as negative as the NAO can get. The AO is also super negative at the end of that run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 FWIW the para GFS last few runs looks much more like the euro and CMC in the long range with systems tracking south of us. Snow is still a long shot until after the 15 or so due to lack of cold but it’s interesting the para gfs has aligned with the euro in the long range a lot more often and has been killing the GFS on synoptic features in the medium to long range imo. It even picked up on this Sunday system before the euro. It did run too cold but it was the closest to reality of all the globals and that’s not the first time this cold season. This upgrade looks pretty significant. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: This might be about as negative as the NAO can get. The AO is also super negative at the end of that run. But it isn’t snowing. sorry Ji hacked my computer 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 One last point wrt this pattern and expectations. The fact that guidance doesn’t show some big blizzard RIGHT NOW isn’t a reason to worry. At this stage in the development of our recent severe blocks nothing was showing up either. Go back to a few days before the blocks formed in Feb 2018, Jan 2016, Dec 2010, Dec 2009...nothing was showing up on the radar then either. It wasn’t for at least another week after the block developed before we were tracking a discreet threat. But 2/4 ended up EPIC and the other 2 we did at least get several snows and at least 1 warning event from. So while this “could” fail history says we probably get at least some snow from a pattern like this and there is a very good chance it’s a lot of snow...by our standards...but we have to be patient. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: FWIW the para GFS last few runs looks much more like the euro and CMC in the long range with systems tracking south of us. Snow is still a long shot until after the 15 or so due to lack of cold but it’s interesting the para gfs has aligned with the euro in the long range a lot more often and has been killing the GFS on synoptic features in the medium to long range imo. It even picked up on this Sunday system before the euro. It did run too cold but it was the closest to reality of all the globals and that’s not the first time this cold season. This upgrade looks pretty significant. Yeah mid month seems about right, but if we keep seeing the great looks on the ensembles by the 10th, that could move forward a bit. It would be more of a thread the needle deal with still marginal cold around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah mid month seems about right, but if we keep seeing the great looks on the ensembles by the 10th, that could move forward a bit. It would be more of a thread the needle deal with still marginal cold around. I think we get teased in the Jan 7-15 time period. Maybe something does work out then. It wouldn’t shock me. The difference between “great” winters or periods of winters and “fine” are usually whether we luck our way into some marginal events. By many numeric indices (AO, etc) we’re going to underperform this December. For the folks north of the Fall Line, it’s going to be a “fine” December. But could have been better. We’ll see what January offers. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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