Heisy Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Gfs pattern at 276 is pretty epic. Is that an -epo trying to form too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 Looks like the GFS is going to show a fantastic fantasy snowstorm at the end of its run looking at h5 at 300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs doing the meteorologically impossible driving a cutter into this look . I doubt anything cuts there. But out airmass at that point is still pretty abysmal. It’s going to take a couple waves and cold air drainage in the NW flow behind them to fix that. I remember a similar situation to this early in several blocking regimes that started with pac puke airmasses. Specifically I remember an exact clone to this discussion in early January 2016 when long range guidance hinted at a cutter...and we had this same exact exchange, and it ended up not cutting but was still rain. Because of the general warmth the primary hung on too long (not had there been cold but too long when we have a crap airmass) and it ended up a big old rainstorm anyways with a pretty good track. I could see that here. I agree with Wxusaf that we could luck into something with a perfect track. It’s not impossible. That block will likely keep us close and tease us. But until we get some cold into the east (probably around the 15-20th) it’s not going to be a high probability imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, yoda said: Looks like the GFS is going to show a fantastic fantasy snowstorm at the end of its run looking at h5 at 300 Yep. It has a sick NNE bomb before that which is the last wave of many that finally ushers in some cold. We have a stationary west based block and some transient rushing. This is a weenie run for the LR. Wish it was day 7 and not what it is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 Looks like it phased or neg tilts just a tad too early at the end of the GFS... but it was enticing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 I doubt anything cuts there. But out airmass at that point is still pretty abysmal. It’s going to take a couple waves and cold air drainage in the NW flow behind them to fix that. I remember a similar situation to this early in several blocking regimes that started with pac puke airmasses. Specifically I remember an exact clone to this discussion in early January 2016 when long range guidance hinted at a cutter...and we had this same exact exchange, and it ended up not cutting but was still rain. Because of the general warmth the primary hung on too long (not had there been cold but too long when we have a crap airmass) and it ended up a big old rainstorm anyways with a pretty good track. I could see that here. I agree with Wxusaf that we could luck into something with a perfect track. It’s not impossible. That block will likely keep us close and tease us. But until we get some cold into the east (probably around the 15-20th) it’s not going to be a high probability imo. Dude it snowed 15 days ago and I had snow-cover for a week. It hasn't been a warm winter. Its been a poor storm track winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like it phased or neg tilts just a tad too early at the end of the GFS... but it was enticing The storm in front slides east instead of north which opens a crack for that to cut. Still I doubt it cuts to that extreme in reality. That was odd. And it’s 14 days away so I wouldn’t worry at all. In 6 hours we get a different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I doubt anything cuts there. But out airmass at that point is still pretty abysmal. It’s going to take a couple waves and cold air drainage in the NW flow behind them to fix that. I remember a similar situation to this early in several blocking regimes that started with pac puke airmasses. Specifically I remember an exact clone to this discussion in early January 2016 when long range guidance hinted at a cutter...and we had this same exact exchange, and it ended up not cutting but was still rain. Because of the general warmth the primary hung on too long (not had there been cold but too long when we have a crap airmass) and it ended up a big old rainstorm anyways with a pretty good track. I could see that here. I agree with Wxusaf that we could luck into something with a perfect track. It’s not impossible. That block will likely keep us close and tease us. But until we get some cold into the east (probably around the 15-20th) it’s not going to be a high probability imo. Dude it snowed 15 days ago and I had snow-cover for a week. It hasn't been a warm winter. Its been a poor storm track winter I’m not talking about December. I’m talking about what’s coming. That 920 mb vortex cruising into the Bering is about to flood us with pac puke. That’s going to take some time to recover from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: The storm in front slides east instead of north which opens a crack for that to cut. Still I doubt it cuts to that extreme in reality. That was odd. And it’s 14 days away so I wouldn’t worry at all. In 6 hours we get a different solution. Def not worrying... that system is probably going to be our first chance for snow again in the new pattern hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 @Ji the last 2 weeks we had a bad track because of the WAR. If we get a legit NAO block that issue will go away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Def not worrying... that system is probably going to be our first chance for snow again in the new pattern hopefully That or the wave after are my guess 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Def not worrying... that system is probably going to be our first chance for snow again in the new pattern hopefullyNo. The next one that delivers will surely be suppressed with that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Latest para Gfs for Sunday. Gotta hit the sac . Please don’t hit my sack. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 20 minutes ago, Ji said: 25 minutes ago, yoda said: Def not worrying... that system is probably going to be our first chance for snow again in the new pattern hopefully No. The next one that delivers will surely be suppressed with that look You must be a blast at birthday parties and weddings. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 Getting there... but still a bit more work to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 It’s not way out at day 15 anymore. Guidance has actually been speeding up the progression. It gets even better after this 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Sweet another 10" of snow to go this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 hours ago, yoda said: He said kinda hard...so there is a chance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Wow, 918 hPa center, just another extreme event. Have a feeling more are on the way , and a couple in our region during the next 8 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 That was one extreme wave 1 event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 21 minutes ago, yoda said: GFS did rather well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You must be a blast at birthday parties and weddings. More like funerals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Good to know he isn't gonna lie 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 8 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I doubt anything cuts there. But out airmass at that point is still pretty abysmal. It’s going to take a couple waves and cold air drainage in the NW flow behind them to fix that. I remember a similar situation to this early in several blocking regimes that started with pac puke airmasses. Specifically I remember an exact clone to this discussion in early January 2016 when long range guidance hinted at a cutter...and we had this same exact exchange, and it ended up not cutting but was still rain. Because of the general warmth the primary hung on too long (not had there been cold but too long when we have a crap airmass) and it ended up a big old rainstorm anyways with a pretty good track. I could see that here. I agree with Wxusaf that we could luck into something with a perfect track. It’s not impossible. That block will likely keep us close and tease us. But until we get some cold into the east (probably around the 15-20th) it’s not going to be a high probability imo. Well at least we’re all on the same page now! I like the progression of the west coast. And the extreme events up in the Aleutian/AK makes me feel that an extreme (hopefully) ku solution is a possibly even in a neutral/Nina-light background. I know the ku scenario has virtually nothing to do with crazy strength of storms rolling up in the northern lats, but still, very interesting 24 minutes ago, frd said: That was one extreme wave 1 event. Pretty cool. This is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 The overnight D10 EPS pretty clearly answers the “just high heights” or a true ridge in the NAO domain. It’s the later. And as Webb showed, the EPS is also lessening the torch temps underneath that block. Something to watch going forward. Still makes things needle threaders, but maybe a bit more give available for the Jan 7-15 timeframe? 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 lulz 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 @PivotPoint 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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