Weather Will Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 WB 18Z GEFS . 19 would make the northern third happy for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 @poolz1 Ramping up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 ^there's definitely been a trend to nudge everything over to NA instead of the other side of the hemisphere. Good to see. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 There is your low level arctic bleed moving SSE at hour 324 and beyond as the + EAMT seems to be relaxing for a time and things start to noticeable improve in the Pac. You have same incredibly cold air over in Eurasia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Both Para and Gfs showing snow Sunday for the northern tier now . Nice bump in Gefs snowy members. At least 10 . Northern tier as in north central PA? Soundings on the 18z GFS sure don’t scream snow for anyone in the MD northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just as an example, but 18z GFS is the sort of evolution through the first 2 weeks of January that we want to see. -NAO/-AO rocks starting in a few days, and then PNA/EPO ridging starts to build around D11. Then by the end of the run, you’ve got 850 temps below normal for much of the CONUS. Actually the pattern is barking for a big dog at 384... 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Just as an example, but 18z GFS is the sort of evolution through the first 2 weeks of January that we want to see. -NAO/-AO rocks starting in a few days, and then PNA/EPO ridging starts to build around D11. Then by the end of the run, you’ve got 850 temps below normal for much of the CONUS. Actually the pattern is barking for a big dog at 384... Could we be seeing the storm we want forming in the southwest at 500 at the end of the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Just as an example, but 18z GFS is the sort of evolution through the first 2 weeks of January that we want to see. -NAO/-AO rocks starting in a few days, and then PNA/EPO ridging starts to build around D11. Then by the end of the run, you’ve got 850 temps below normal for much of the CONUS. Actually the pattern is barking for a big dog at 384... Yea the evolution really is nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Could we be seeing the storm we want forming in the southwest at 500 at the end of the run? Hope it happens before the 15th because you turn into a pumpkin after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Could we be seeing the storm we want forming in the southwest at 500 at the end of the run? Yes...it won’t play out exactly like any op at that range but hypothetically that wave in the west at the end of the run has big dog potential. There is a huge vortex stuck to our northeast under the block. It’s got no where to go but track east under the block and there is cold in front of it this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yes...it won’t play out exactly like any op at that range but hypothetically that wave in the west at the end of the run has big dog potential. There is a huge vortex stuck to our northeast under the block. It’s got no where to go but track east under the block and there is cold in front of it this time. So just curious, how does SNE do with such a robust west based block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Hope it happens before the 15th because you turn into a pumpkin after that. Thanks to you brother. Why did you limit me to two weeks in prime climo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, Wonderdog said: Thanks to you brother. Why did you limit me to two weeks in prime climo? You would have been dead already. Trust me if this all fades and there is a raging +AO /NAO and -PNA +EPO phase 5 SE ridge WAR falling iguana. pattern by 15 Jan you’ll thank me. Can’t happen? I beg to differ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So just curious, how does SNE do with such a robust west based block? SNE can do ok but they can sometimes be vulnerable to the storm being suppressed south depending on details wrt 50/50, exact block location, PNA ridge amplitude and location...the first 4 big storms in 2009/10 all went south of them. Then as a real kick in the sack the 5th HECS storm (the one that hit NYC and fringed our northeast area) cut due north and went to rain for them. They had a similar fate in 1987. They actually do better if there is more trough into the west coast as that’s more a miller b pattern. That’s what happened with the Feb storm in 2013. That block screwed us over. Missed that bomb then the March 2013 storm...I won’t go there. I’m pretty sure their big winter of 69 was the same, great block but with a western trough so that there were a lot of storms that started far enough north to really bomb off New England. That’s why we only had a decent but not great year in 69 despite amazing blocking. But some of our big storms from a west -NAO got southern NE too. I certainly wouldn’t want to be too far north in NE though. It all depends on the details once they set up wrt who exactly it favors. Fwiw the look I see on long range guidance now favors the mid Atlantic. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: SNE can do ok but they can sometimes be vulnerable to the storm being suppressed south depending on details wrt 50/50, exact block location, PNA ridge amplitude and location...the first 4 big storms in 2009/10 all went south of them. Then as a real kick in the sack the 5th HECS storm (the one that hit NYC and fringed our northeast area) cut due north and went to rain for them. They had a similar fate in 1987. They actually do better if there is more trough into the west coast as that’s more a miller b pattern. That’s what happened with the Feb storm in 2013. That block screwed us over. Missed that bomb then the March 2013 storm...I won’t go there. I’m pretty sure their big winter of 69 was the same, great block but with a western trough so that there were a lot of storms that started far enough north to really bomb off New England. That’s why we only had a decent but not great year in 69 despite amazing blocking. But some of our big storms from a west -NAO got southern NE too. I certainly wouldn’t want to be too far north in NE though. It all depends on the details once they set up wrt who exactly it favors. Fwiw the look I see on long range guidance now favors the mid Atlantic. Thanks, they don't seem too interested up there right now but maybe that's the near term pattern rather than the longer view potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 WB 18Z GEFS....will be interesting to watch the trends over the next two weeks... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs increasing signal for possible coastal day 8/9. Not a huge signal but as nice cluster have a coastal. Some members have the lower heights to the ne in a good spot around 50/50 which would be needed with marginal cold . With that big block and possible 50/50 lows, I think we’re going to have some close calls Jan 7-15. At least to the point we probably get teased a few times. But going to be needle threaders if anything. After the 15th, I think we get busy. If the advertised pattern comes to fruition, I think odds are definitely higher than normal for KU type events. Especially considering it’s a moderate Nina. 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Thanks, they don't seem too interested up there right now but maybe that's the near term pattern rather than the longer view potential Bootleg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You would have been dead already. Trust me if this all fades and there is a raging +AO /NAO and -PNA +EPO phase 5 SE ridge WAR falling iguana. pattern by 15 Jan you’ll thank me. Can’t happen? I beg to differ. But I have seen the light. I feel very good about our propects for the rest of winter. I can envision the toy needing a tuneup before we're halfway thru Feb. You can have my tombstone. I'll chip in for the name change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: Bootleg. AwT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: But I have seen the light. I feel very good about our propects for the rest of winter. I can envision the toy needing a tuneup before we're halfway thru Feb. You can have my tombstone. I'll chip in for the name change! Nah. Let’s ride it out until April 1st. Then of things look bleak we jump and never look back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 33 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Thanks, they don't seem too interested up there right now but maybe that's the near term pattern rather than the longer view potential Lol they aren’t used to having to read the tea leaves of day 15 ensembles to look for their snow. Also a big block isn’t the holy grail to them that it is to us. They can do good but they can also get screwed. They also have way more ways to snow then us. And a lot of them up there are into snow pack building and frankly a blocking pattern isn’t the best for that. They aren’t typically cold, can warm up between storms, and if a storm gets trapped and hugs the coast they are susceptible to rain more in a blocking pattern. An east based -EPO with a displaced TPV is probably what they want most. 1994 and 2015 are their holy grail patterns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 This is a composite of some blocking periods that centered the greatest + snow anomalies in our area. this is a composite of 3 years where the blocking didn’t do us much good but crushed New England. It’s subtle but look at the west and east. There are lower heights in the west on the NE comp and the trough in the east is centered slightly further northeast as a result. Note we don’t need some big PNA ridge with a block but we don’t want a full trough in the west either. Off the NW coast is ok but not crashing full in. One exception is March. Once wavelengths shorten in March that works. Some of our big blocking March storms had a trough in the west. I know this looks subtle but on a planetary scale us and NE aren’t that far apart so looking at a hemispheric map the differences seem subtle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: The H5 looks on all guidance are excellent by mid January. But 850 and 2m temps are still mild at that point. Going to take a bit of time to get some cold air moving south, but that much improved Pac will do that eventually. You summed up in two sentences what I couldn’t in like 4 posts lol. 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: My guess is around the 18-20th is when we start to rock. It’s possible one of those waves in the Jan 10-15 works but a long shot as the antecedent airmass is a train wreck. But the thermal profile over the conus will slowly cool in mid January with a flow out of northern Canada. Maybe we get lucky with something amplifying and doing the mythical “create your own cold” thing sooner but I think we have to be patient. So above is exactly the argument I was making. 2m temps would lag behind a good upper air pattern. Why did you push back against what I was saying.. this was my point earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Dr. V talking strat and PV possible split Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: You summed up in two sentences what I couldn’t in like 4 posts lol. So above is exactly the argument I was making. 2m temps would lag behind a good upper air pattern. Why did you push back against what I was saying.. this was my point earlier I never disagreed with THAT. I’ve been saying we have to be patient and wait for true blocking to establish and the temporary trough that crashes the west to pull back. My retort was to your post implying we need a total reshuffle and some huge EPO ridge and a breakdown of blocking to get cross polar flow. I think we just need to let the pattern progression we are on play out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Dr. V talking strat and PV possible split Sent from my SM-N960U using TapatalkI actually watched that as I was doing something else. Not saying I understood it fully..Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Latest para Gfs for Sunday. Gotta hit the sac . What a weird map. Why are the snow colors so similar to the sleet colors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Latest para Gfs for Sunday. Gotta hit the sac . That model is hitting something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Gfs doing the meteorologically impossible driving a cutter into this look . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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