LP08 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Euro really wants to set up the Davis straight block prior to day ten. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Euro really wants to set up the Davis straight block prior to day ten. I think the blocking will set up by day 10. But remember we have often had to suffer through a rainstorm after the blocking establishment before a snow threat. We had a big rainstorm around March 1 in 2018 after the block formed before the trough got into the east. Same in January 2016. The first wave to come isn’t usually the one because there is no cold in front of it. It’s usually later that we get a threat. Also once the block goes up don’t get shocked if waves suddenly slow down and we have to wait longer between threats. That’s all normal. Our greatest correlation to snow is a week or more after blocking establishes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Looking into a lot of what’s being discussed right now...regardless of the outcome this year...a very strong SSW that couples could be good for blocking prospects next winter as well, especially if there are subsequent events So we are moving on to winter 2021-22 today? I cant keep up in here, believe me I'm trying to though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think the blocking will set up by day 10. But remember we have often had to suffer through a rainstorm after the blocking establishment before a snow threat. We had a big rainstorm around March 1 in 2018 after the block formed before the trough got into the east. Same in January 2016. The first wave to come isn’t usually the one because there is no cold in front of it. It’s usually later that we get a threat. Also once the block goes up don’t get shocked if waves suddenly slow down and we have to wait longer between threats. That’s all normal. Our greatest correlation to snow is a week or more after blocking establishes. For sure. It’s good to see it on OP runs getting established. I know as well as you do that when we get rained on with that look up top people might be getting a little restless. I am very encourage from about Jan 10 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So we are moving on to winter 2021-22 today? I cant keep up in here, believe me I'm trying to though. Sometimes 2 things can be true. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 How's Mongolia looking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: How's Mongolia looking? They lost contact. The whole country was crushed under the weight of that ginormous high. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Looking into a lot of what’s being discussed right now...regardless of the outcome this year...a very strong SSW that couples could be good for blocking prospects next winter as well, especially if there are subsequent events So is there some sort of inter-seasonal memory? I had never heard that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 920 mb, Wow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 51 minutes ago, LP08 said: For sure. It’s good to see it on OP runs getting established. I know as well as you do that when we get rained on with that look up top people might be getting a little restless. I am very encourage from about Jan 10 and beyond. We’ve played this game before... 2 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 45 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: How's Mongolia looking? Very Mongolian 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 34 minutes ago, cbmclean said: So is there some sort of inter-seasonal memory? I had never heard that. Often a season with an extremely weak TPV that features a mid season SSW the following winter features blocking also. This becomes even more likely if we see subsequent warning events after the main one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 WOOF also very active to say the least..... snow on snow 8 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Wow to that look above. Screensaver pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’ve played this game before... If I remember correctly the ensembles didnt look that great on the 10th after looking great for days before. There was a mini panic and then we all know what happened 13 days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Wow to that look above. Screensaver pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, frd said: If you scroll through the remaining frames of the GEPS notice the ATL trough retro back into the east coast..... looks across all guidance in the LR today. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 17 minutes ago, HighStakes said: If I remember correctly the ensembles didnt look that great on the 10th after looking great for days before. There was a mini panic and then we all know what happened 13 days later. If my memory serves maybe the 11th or so there was a weird flip where the EPS tried to break down the blocking and had us all questioning our faith. The GEFS I think actually stuck with it but back then choosing the GEFS over the EPS was questionable usually. But it was only one or two runs before the better look came back. Ji was depressed in that post because we had been tracking what turned out to be a cold rain (we had some slush bombs mixed in up here) coastal because a primary ran up west and wrecked the temps. When the blocking first showed up a lot of us thought that was the threat. Ended up being a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Sucks to be in the bullseye this far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Patience....if it can still snow in South Texas it can still snow in the DMV. WB EURO for Friday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 14 minutes ago, poolz1 said: If you scroll through the remaining frames of the GEPS notice the ATL trough retro back into the east coast..... looks across all guidance in the LR today. The H5 looks on all guidance are excellent by mid January. But 850 and 2m temps are still mild at that point. Going to take a bit of time to get some cold air moving south, but that much improved Pac will do that eventually. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Patience....if it can still snow in South Texas it can still snow in the DMV. WB EURO for Friday Where's Jeb at? If he sees that map he'll be chasing for sure. That sort of dump or anything close to it would be crippling to that part of TX (yea, I know, it's a clown map, but...) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The H5 looks on all guidance are excellent by mid January. But 850 and 2m temps are still mild at that point. Going to take a bit of time to get some cold air moving south, but that much improved Pac will do that eventually. Yea, the look of the EPS at the end of its run would correct the cold issue pretty quick... You are right tho, its gonna take some time. I am just glad we are not in mid Feb with the finish line in sight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, HighStakes said: If I remember correctly the ensembles didnt look that great on the 10th after looking great for days before. There was a mini panic and then we all know what happened 13 days later. I would give my left nut for a repeat of that storm. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 I would give my left nut for a repeat of that storm. But not your right one apparently. Total lack of commitment...Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The H5 looks on all guidance are excellent by mid January. But 850 and 2m temps are still mild at that point. Going to take a bit of time to get some cold air moving south, but that much improved Pac will do that eventually. My guess is around the 18-20th is when we start to rock. It’s possible one of those waves in the Jan 10-15 works but a long shot as the antecedent airmass is a train wreck. But the thermal profile over the conus will slowly cool in mid January with a flow out of northern Canada. Maybe we get lucky with something amplifying and doing the mythical “create your own cold” thing sooner but I think we have to be patient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 17 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I would give my left nut for a repeat of that storm. Was good here too. I'd definitely be willing to part with your left nut for a repeat...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My guess is around the 18-20th is when we start to rock. It’s possible one of those waves in the Jan 10-15 works but a long shot as the antecedent airmass is a train wreck. But the thermal profile over the conus will slowly cool in mid January with a flow out of northern Canada. Maybe we get lucky with something amplifying and doing the mythical “create your own cold” thing sooner but I think we have to be patient. Make sure you quote Ji's response to this one as well. I suspect it will be something incredulous like...."our average temp goes up 1 degree by the 20th we've waisted our peak climo" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 29 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Make sure you quote Ji's response to this one as well. I suspect it will be something incredulous like...."our average temp goes up 1 degree by the 20th we've waisted our peak climo" I always check Ji’s posts before setting my emotional compass 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 GFS says Greenland is the new Mongolia 5 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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