Interstate Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 27 minutes ago, CAPE said: It wasn't super cold for any of the 3 big storms in 2009-10. We had the great blocking with a perfect storm track, and ofc we had the active stj with a moderate Nino. From what I remember the Dec 09 storm was pretty darn cold... I believe it was in the low 20s... and I think the second blizzard was decently cold as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, Interstate said: From what I remember the Dec 09 storm was pretty darn cold... I believe it was in the low 20s... and I think the second blizzard was decently cold as well. The second blizzard was pretty cold...although I remember there being a warm layer there that turned to freezing rain for a time in the corridor (and my 19 year-old ungrateful self was sittin' there complaining about it, smh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, Interstate said: From what I remember the Dec 09 storm was pretty darn cold... I believe it was in the low 20s... and I think the second blizzard was decently cold as well. None were very cold leading in. The first storm in Feb I remember temps being around 36 when the first flakes were falling, and the temp pretty quickly dropped to freezing, and then into the mid 20s. The next one was actually rain here for the first part, but when the actual low that became the blizzard moved in, temps fell into the 20s. The coldest by far was the late Jan event where temps were in the teens and stayed there during the whole storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 I love this animation, really hope the GEFS has the right idea. Its beautiful ! The GEFS has been doing well overall, so hopefully this wave retrogression is correct. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, Interstate said: From what I remember the Dec 09 storm was pretty darn cold... I believe it was in the low 20s... and I think the second blizzard was decently cold as well. Yes I remember both well set ups were somewhat similar. The temps here in SE pa were mainly in the lower to mid 20s which gave us great snow ratios which really helped us get to our totals. The February 2010 storm same but that storm had winds 35-45 over our area to boot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Yeah, it tends to be colder further north. Maybe go back and read the context of the original posts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah, it tends to be colder further north. Maybe go back and read the context of the original posts. Oh I’m missing something else we were in the best spot geographically in relation to the blocking that was in place too. Just so you know I’m only about 10 miles north of the Mason Dixon Line so not too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Oh I’m missing something else we were in the best spot geographically in relation to the blocking that was in place too. Just so you know I’m only about 10 miles north of the Mason Dixon Line so not too far north. My post wasn't directed specifically at you. The point was we don't need a true arctic airmass in place(for the lowlands) leading up to an event in order to get a snowstorm. Moderate cold will work when the atmospheric setup is very favorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 @poolz1 pretty neat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Yep.Definitely a potential here day 8/9. Many are punting weeks till mid January or late January January 7th Yes. The Hi Rez Euro has this as a legit snow threat for the area as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 @frd I was just looking at the latest GEFS strat when you posted this.....thinking, boy if we are going to fully couple the pattern just looks classic. Pretty cool watching this in real time and in early Jan to boot! I hate being patient as much as the next guy/gal but the stars seem to be aligning for a wild ride for the rest of the winter season. 06 GEFS have been posted enough but wow man....lets get this inside 10 days and we can start to fill our digital snow needs! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 43 minutes ago, CAPE said: My post wasn't directed specifically at you. The point was we don't need a true arctic airmass in place(for the lowlands) leading up to an event in order to get a snowstorm. Moderate cold will work when the atmospheric setup is very favorable. Totally agree!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 If you believe in the big three indices then you probably suspect something possible around the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: If you believe in the big three indices then you probably suspect something possible around the 10th. Which three are those? I assume you include the NAO and AO. What is the third? PNA or EPO? I am assuming PNA because the EPO looked stuck positive for the foreseeable future when last I saw a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Ji never sees the front edge because he's already looking for the next storm. I doubt he ever watches the snow fall he only tracks it which is why he needs to see digital snow more than actual snow. yea the model runs are way more exciting for me than the actual storm 1 1 9 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Looking into a lot of what’s being discussed right now...regardless of the outcome this year...a very strong SSW that couples could be good for blocking prospects next winter as well, especially if there are subsequent events 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Which three are those? I assume you include the NAO and AO. What is the third? PNA or EPO? I am assuming PNA because the EPO looked stuck positive for the foreseeable future when last I saw a few days ago. I was just going off the PNA as the third. The NAO looks to be starting to relax around that time as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 I know we're kinda focused on the ultra long range mid jan into feb but boy does the weather pattern look boring the next couple weeks. Only really 2 storm systems and they're both undoubtedly rain for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 16 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I know we're kinda focused on the ultra long range mid jan into feb but boy does the weather pattern look boring the next couple weeks. Only really 2 storm systems and they're both undoubtedly rain for most of us. Third straight year of torch for the first 1/3 to 1/2 of January. It's becoming a New Year's tradition. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Thirds straight year of torch for the first 1/3 to 1/2 of January. It's becoming a New Years tradition. not sure that's a lock at this point. This front coming was supposed be warm gullywasher..it has since morphed into something new...I wouldn't commit to any firm ideas about anything beyond 5 days...just my 2 cents 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 GFS starts bringing ridging to the west coast on the 11th and 12th. Has a monster cutter during that time frame. But the pattern looks better after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Para for Sunday . Gefs has 4 or 5 members interested atm No cold air. Almost same track as the storm 2 weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Para for Sunday . Gefs has 4 or 5 members interested atm Why does the para on pivotal look different? Woops my fault had wrong hour on haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 31 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GFS starts bringing ridging to the west coast on the 11th and 12th. Has a monster cutter during that time frame. But the pattern looks better after that. GFS is on an island on that cutter. GGEM and Euro dont have it(passes south of us). The GFS is doing meterogically impossible things. And how about its huge miss on the coastal on sunday for 2-3 days ago smh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs starting to pick up a bit of a signal day 8 similar to last nights Euro . Vorticity 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 4 hours ago, LP08 said: Your points are for sure valid for the next 10 days and I tend to agree with you. I think what everyone here and on Twitter is saying is the 12-15 day and beyond (I know dubious but all guidance has it). +5 temps in eastern Canada is still plenty cold for our source area for a good storm track. The December storm had the H5 go north of us and never close off until it was well past us and it still was a good storm for many. I think what everyone is trying to say is that we don’t need below normal anomalies in Canada in mid Jan for it to snow here. This is a good point. I am looking a little more medium range as anything beyond the day 10 period is just pureeee speculation. You can have hints here and there but mostly confirmation bias if it actually turns out to be correct. I do think that we see some PAC help simply because troughs out west don’t last forever. However, I’ll say it again, surface temps could become an issue for us closer into the city (as they always are) but as a finance guy, I would be hedging my bet against temps being cooperative. I would argue there’s a greater chance we DO get upper air to look right but the surface struggles (even more so than we usually do) just my wag 4 hours ago, Kmlwx said: We don't even need a "cold outbreak" to get snow during climo favored times. In fact, we've seen plenty of times when a massive cold outbreak suppresses stuff to the south and we get shafted in that manner. Give me "cold enough" to snow and I'll take it. We don't need some frigid Arctic outbreak to get snowfall here. Nobody has mentioned a major arctic outbreak or even calling/asking for that. I do think though that given our “new” base state for background temp that seeing +5 anomalies in our source makes me (dc and se) feel EVEN worse about our snow chances then I usually do. But I hope PSU and Cape et. al are right and the blocking overcomes this marginal temp look of the northern lats 3 hours ago, dailylurker said: Those of us east of DC pretty much do. That's probably half this fourm. I tend to agree here. Marginal for leesburg on west means we mix the ENTIRE TIME, instead of the usual 70/30 snow to snizzle ratio we get for most mil a’s or overrunning will flip sooner, etc 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: GFS starts bringing ridging to the west coast on the 11th and 12th. Has a monster cutter during that time frame. But the pattern looks better after that. A model run 13-14 days from now. You have a better chance of guessing a number 1-100 that I’m thinking of right now then that look coming to fruition as depicted, lol As long as there are small improvement improvements out west over next 6-10 days then the blocking has a chance to help. But I’m not looking at 12+ days out into fairytale land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 @PivotPoint you’re arguing apples and oranges then. For about a week starting now the pac trough crashes into the west. That’s a problem. That has to back off. But that has not been the case all winter so far and it looks to only last about a week. No one has said we want that trough on the west coast. But getting it to back off slightly to be centered back where it has been most of winter so far isn’t a big change or reshuffle it’s just the pac resuming its base state so far this cold season. We have not had a legit NAO block yet. We did have a AO crash and it did produce cold and legit snow threats. If we get a legit NAO block with the pac base state we have had most of December we will be fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @PivotPoint you’re arguing apples and oranges then. For about a week starting now the pac trough crashes into the west. That’s a problem. That has to back off. But that has not been the case all winter so far and it looks to only last about a week. No one has said we want that trough on the west coast. But getting it to back off slightly to be centered back where it has been most of winter so far isn’t a big change or reshuffle it’s just the pac resuming its base state so far this cold season. We have not had a legit NAO block yet. We did have a AO crash and it did produce cold and legit snow threats. If we get a legit NAO block with the pac base state we have had most of December we will be fine. Fair enough: I went back and checked the PNA tele for past 60 days and you’re right, it’s more neutral to slightly positive than I had thought. I don’t think we’re arguing apples to oranges as you said, but I guess my focus for winter is always mid dec- mid March. After the spike in the PNA for our dec 9 storm, it’s been pretty flat since then to now trending negative over the next 5-7 days. My concern is everyone is saying “but look at day 10+” ridging and blocking. Great, I think we all have seen that exercise in futility with the day 10+ deal. Listen, if you recall I stared woofing for the dec storm on dec 1 because I saw transient ridging in the NAO domain and a ridge forming out west as the GOA low migrated poleward. I said then I liked the day 7-10 period. I didn’t get hit but a lot did. And it was great. So, not just nay saying. I bark when I see things. Maybe you’re seeing it sooner, thus, congrats. I’d like to see the PAC better in the day 7 timeframe to feel better about our future block eta: apologies, got my dates confused: dec 17 storm and started discussing it on the 9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Pac is coming along. Damn, sweet progression mid month. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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