January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

[PivotPoint]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The “blocking” right now is just an extension of the WAR and really isn’t legit blocking.  Get a west based -NAO like every ensemble is showing ~10-12ish days from now and I just can’t see storms cutting into that block.  Just my .02.

I agree with that. However even if it doesn’t cut I still think we need help from some Ridging out west to allow for amplification and tapping whatever cold air there is for a SW

[anotherman]

Just now, PivotPoint said:

Science is about being oppositional. And I was just saying my thoughts, Yoda said”I have to find something wrong”. Did not start this one, as I typically get blamed for this stuff. Sheesh

Yeah, oppositional was the wrong word.  I guess I just meant stubborn.  Trust me, I love it when people point out what could go wrong or play devil's advocate.  And I also understand that where I am is different than where you are.  You do need a lot more to go right than I do to get snow.

[CAPE]

46 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Woof.

Also, EPS still with a signal for a coastal low on the 11/12 on the MSLP anomaly maps.  

A poleward shift/relaxation of the Pac jet and associated +PNA does wonders for our temps. Not super cold but much improved towards the end of the run without the firehose pointed straight at us.

[WxUSAF]

GEFS has a cutter signal around the 11/12th. But it’s super warm ahead of it. We need that west coast ridging to pop and then wait a few days at least to start flushing the puke out of here before we get some legit threats IMO. Maybe there’s a needle to be threaded before that, but just no cold air to speak of. If the ensembles are correct, I think we’re in business after the 15th.

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

I agree with that. However even if it doesn’t cut I still think we need help from some Ridging out west to allow for amplification and tapping whatever cold air there is for a SW

Agree, especially for the coastal plain - but the looks are suggesting we couple some ridging with the west-based -NAO (see the EPS I posted at the end of the last page).

ETA - CAPE explained it way better than me above.

[PivotPoint]

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

Yeah, oppositional was the wrong word.  I guess I just meant stubborn.  Trust me, I love it when people point out what could go wrong or play devil's advocate.  And I also understand that where I am is different than where you are.  You do need a lot more to go right than I do to get snow.

And to be honest, I’m sure that I’m over thinking it this far out especially considering I’m talking about temps. Temps shouldn’t really be something discussed until models are in their deterministic range, however, I just wanted to point out that I think blocking needs to have cold below it to supply us with the ingredients we need. That’s all. Think that’s a fair observation!

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

The tweet you posted from Webb is fine and well, by he says “Cold? Sure.” Then shows a 10-15 day ensemble mean of 500mb that, yea, has a great west based huge NAO and slight ridging. It is a good look. But people underestimate the issues that we “DC” folk have with temps. PSU cited a the December storm as “see, it was almost cold enough and it was only mid December”. And it actually kind of proves my point. DC got nothing from that. And the reason was partly track but mostly mid-levels could hang on and we were flooded with WAA because our airmass wasn’t stout enough. Fast forward, Jan and Feb should fix that issue, right? I mean, another moth of cold building up would be enough to help a marginal setup, one would assume. I’m making the point that the cold is there like we would typically expect, and what looks like a great 500 could be great for Winchester on west, even with a great block and confluence to the north. We’lol have to wait and see but this isn’t a “he knows more, he’s a met, you be quiet” type deal. My issue with temps and what the block has not allowed to happen “building of substantially cold air” I view as a potential factor rolling through even a “good” upper air look.

We haven't had a block yet. It is just showing up on the 8-12 day now. All of this 'blocking" you are referencing were higher smoothed height extentions from the WAR that is about to break off and wobble into the western NAO region as a true block. We get it, your blinds are shut until you see cold air up North and a channel to get it down to the US. I dont agree with that as yes, temps have been AN in our source areas but temps have seen seasonal here and seasonal/marginal will work imo when the actual block settles in. Patience.

[psuhoffman]

8 hours ago, PivotPoint said:

Some points in there well taken but hasn’t the Northern PAC had a fairly stable trough through most the second half of dec? I see a low in gulf of AK and ridging so far west it’s on the the other side of the PAC. And to be clear, I’m not asking for a a full alt PNA ridge from the gulf of AK to San Diego, but yes I think that removing the huge + anomaly around Greenland could have an effect on draining some of that cold air out of East Asia.  Now I’ll admit that I’m not an expert to be able to explain that’s mechanism. But I will say that having a trough out west with a mediocre cold source for us and cold air locked up in Asia is NOT what we want. I see a huge anomaly over Greenland and can’t help but think that this is part of the atmospheric mechanism that is to not allowing cold to travel to our part of the hemisphere. I’m sure some of my rationale is flawed but I have a hunch that there’s part of it that makes sense.

We have never done well in a Nina without blocking. Ever. So your assertion that we should toss the blocking doesn’t have any historical support. NAO phases often last months so your idea that it could break down then reform in time to save the end of winter is dubious.  We do not want a ridge where that N PAC low has been.  We want a ridge centered over eastern AK into western Canada. That N pac low has been, and guidance suggests will be again, centered west of AK. Most of our best snowstorms have a low there. If you put a ridge there you will get a trough in the west and a ridge in the east!  If you are only talking about the one week coming up where that low becomes a monster and crashes into western N Amer then yes that needs to back off. That does temporarily flood us with pac puke next week. But that’s only temporary not the permanent base state. It’s a result of a sub 920 low crashing into the Bering sea.  Assuming that pulls back to where the N PAC low base state has been it’s fine Imo. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

I agree with that. However even if it doesn’t cut I still think we need help from some Ridging out west to allow for amplification and tapping whatever cold air there is for a SW

Amped systems I can agree. We can score without having a crazy amped system minus a PNA ridge with marginal temps and slp sliding under us. Think overunning. Not every system we track needs to be an amped up MECS with a perfect upper air pattern.

[psuhoffman]

@PivotPoint

composite of our 15 snowiest winters 

day 15 GEFS (all guidance agrees on this general look)

 

I highly doubt any reshuffle is going to result in a better pattern then that!  What you’re proposing is like hitting on 20 in Blackjack 

[PivotPoint]

25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We haven't had a block yet. It is just showing up on the 8-12 day now. All of this 'blocking" you are referencing were higher smoothed height extentions from the WAR that is about to break off and wobble into the western NAO region as a true block. We get it, your blinds are shut until you see cold air up North and a channel to get it down to the US. I dont agree with that as yes, temps have been AN in our source areas but temps have seen seasonal here and seasonal/marginal will work imo when the actual block settles in. Patience.

We’ve had easy based -NAO. And it’s kind of muddled because yes it is an extension of the WAR but it’s hard to tell if it’s all an extension of the WAR or not. Yes though, the west based blocking is still modeled out in time so patience is a must

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@PivotPoint

composite of our 15 snowiest winters 

day 15 GEFS (all guidance agrees on this general look)

 

I highly doubt any reshuffle is going to result in a better pattern then that!  What you’re proposing is like hitting on 20 in Blackjack 

That’s some funny sh*t right there

[PivotPoint]

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We have never done well in a Nina without blocking. Ever. So your assertion that we should toss the blocking doesn’t have any historical support. NAO phases often last months so your idea that it could break down then reform in time to save the end of winter is dubious.  We do not want a ridge where that N PAC low has been.  We want a ridge centered over eastern AK into western Canada. That N pac low has been, and guidance suggests will be again, centered west of AK. Most of our best snowstorms have a low there. If you put a ridge there you will get a trough in the west and a ridge in the east!  If you are only talking about the one week coming up where that low becomes a monster and crashes into western N Amer then yes that needs to back off. That does temporarily flood us with pac puke next week. But that’s only temporary not the permanent base state. It’s a result of a sub 920 low crashing into the Bering sea.  Assuming that pulls back to where the N PAC low base state has been it’s fine Imo. 

Correct, I was referring to this...the day 5-10 time frame where there is a trough extending from the N. PAC through AK and down through west coast.

I would think we would want ridging there that extends up and over AK/BC. And to your point yes, La Niña would need blocking based off the fast pacific flow and west coast trough that’s more indicative of a cold enso. But my point was not a) completely do away with all ideas of blocking, and b) allow those cold anomalies you see diving down the west coast to move eastward to central Canada. We would not see cold out here, correct. Not a good winter storm look but would (in my mind) possibly set the stage for more cold out breaks if blocking reloads and there is evidence to suggest blocking (once stable) can wax and wane

 

[frd]

49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS has a cutter signal around the 11/12th. But it’s super warm ahead of it. We need that west coast ridging to pop and then wait a few days at least to start flushing the puke out of here before we get some legit threats IMO. Maybe there’s a needle to be threaded before that, but just no cold air to speak of. If the ensembles are correct, I think we’re in business after the 15th.

Hopefully the last cutter for a while afterwards, if the GEFS is correct. Then, we track the various impulses moving under the block as the pattern continues to improve. Looks like exciting tracking opportunities from mid Jan into Feb. I would speculate, as you ,mentioned, real threats for our area start near the 14 th or 15 th. 

In the past there have been multiple times when we scored with a so so Pac, but a stellar -AO and - NAO.      

 

[LP08]

3 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Correct, I was referring to this...the day 5-10 time frame where there is a trough extending from the N. PAC through AK and down through west coast.

I would think we would want ridging there that extends up and over AK/BC. And to your point yes, La Niña would need blocking based off the fast pacific flow and west coast trough that’s more indicative of a cold enso. But my point was not a) completely do away with all ideas of blocking, and b) allow those cold anomalies you see diving down the west coast to move eastward to central Canada. We would not see cold out here, correct. Not a good winter storm look but would (in my mind) possibly set the stage for more cold out breaks if blocking reloads and there is evidence to suggest blocking (once stable) can wax and wane

 

Your points are for sure valid for the next 10 days and I tend to agree with you.  I think what everyone here and on Twitter is saying is the 12-15 day and beyond (I know dubious but all guidance has it). +5 temps in eastern Canada is still plenty cold for our source area for a good storm track.  The December storm had the H5 go north of us and never close off until it was well past us and it still was a good storm for many.  I think what everyone is trying to say is that we don’t need below normal anomalies in Canada in mid Jan for it to snow here.

[Kmlwx]

We don't even need a "cold outbreak" to get snow during climo favored times. In fact, we've seen plenty of times when a massive cold outbreak suppresses stuff to the south and we get shafted in that manner. Give me "cold enough" to snow and I'll take it. We don't need some frigid Arctic outbreak to get snowfall here. 

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

We don't even need a "cold outbreak" to get snow during climo favored times. In fact, we've seen plenty of times when a massive cold outbreak suppresses stuff to the south and we get shafted in that manner. Give me "cold enough" to snow and I'll take it. We don't need some frigid Arctic outbreak to get snowfall here. 

Those of us east of DC pretty much do. That's probably half this fourm.

[chris21]

1 hour ago, PivotPoint said:

The tweet you posted from Webb is fine and well, by he says “Cold? Sure.” Then shows a 10-15 day ensemble mean of 500mb that, yea, has a great west based huge NAO and slight ridging. It is a good look. But people underestimate the issues that we “DC” folk have with temps. PSU cited a the December storm as “see, it was almost cold enough and it was only mid December”. And it actually kind of proves my point. DC got nothing from that. And the reason was partly track but mostly mid-levels could hang on and we were flooded with WAA because our airmass wasn’t stout enough. Fast forward, Jan and Feb should fix that issue, right? I mean, another moth of cold building up would be enough to help a marginal setup, one would assume. I’m making the point that the cold is there like we would typically expect, and what looks like a great 500 could be great for Winchester on west, even with a great block and confluence to the north. We’lol have to wait and see but this isn’t a “he knows more, he’s a met, you be quiet” type deal. My issue with temps and what the block has not allowed to happen “building of substantially cold air” I view as a potential factor rolling through even a “good” upper air look.

Not sure where you live in DC, but where I live in NW we had an inch and a half of snow and some ice after that. Actually not bad for a storm in December.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Those of us east of DC pretty much do. That's probably half this fourm.

It wasn't super cold for any of the 3 big storms in 2009-10. We had the great blocking with a perfect storm track, and ofc we had the active stj with a moderate Nino.

[frd]

 

 

Today there is increased consensus on keeping the AO negative near - 3 SD for an extended period of time, possibly even lower towards mid Jan.  

 

   

[Kmlwx]

9 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Those of us east of DC pretty much do. That's probably half this fourm.

Even for you guys - you don't need some 10 degree polar express airmass to get it done. And remember, areas east of the fall line tend to mix anyway in the biggies. I'm just saying we don't need it to be North Pole-esque to get snow - even for you guys. 

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It wasn't super cold for any of the 3 big storms in 2009-10. We had the great blocking with a perfect storm track, and ofc we had the active stj with a moderate Nino.

That's true but also a fluke year. I hate relaying on a perfect track storm. Without real cold they usually end up the way the last storm did. 

[dailylurker]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Even for you guys - you don't need some 10 degree polar express airmass to get it done. And remember, areas east of the fall line tend to mix anyway in the biggies. I'm just saying we don't need it to be North Pole-esque to get snow - even for you guys. 

Oh yeah. I agree on that too. North pole cold just gives Norfolk a blizzard while we get filtered sunshine and frozen mud.

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Oh yeah. I agree on that too. North pole cold just gives Norfolk a blizzard while we get filtered sunshine and frozen mud.

Yeah - we definitely don't need to freeze the Bay (although that looks cool!). Let's just hope we can get past the pac puke and get into this blocking regime and start seeing some response at the surface on the modeling. Snow in the Mid-Atlantic is always a pain to track down anyway. 

[CAPE]

Just now, dailylurker said:

That's true but also a fluke year. I hate relaying on a perfect track storm. Without real cold they usually end up the way the last storm did. 

Having all the features in the right places is the key. If the west based block is legit, we should have HP where we need it, and not running away, and lower heights where we want it off of the Canadian Maritimes. There are always variations and more "risk" for the coastal plain, but having a persistent -AO/NAO is about as good as it gets for snow chances. 

[frd]

 

Coming soon to CAPE's backyard. 

 

 

 

[frd]

 

Euro pretty firm on Jan 5 th.  Getting closer.  

 

  

 

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Coming soon to CAPE's backyard. 

Ji: I can see the back edge on radar already

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Ji: I can see the back edge on radar already

Ji never sees the front edge because he's already looking for the next storm. I doubt he ever watches the snow fall he only tracks it which is why he needs to see digital snow more than actual snow.

[anotherman]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Ji never sees the front edge because he's already looking for the next storm. I doubt he ever watches the snow fall he only tracks it which is why he needs to see digital snow more than actual snow.

I agree with him.  The chase or build-up is almost more fun than when the storm gets here.  Almost.  It's like the build-up to Christmas and then the inevitable realization that the whole thing is now over in a matter of hours after weeks of preparation/anticipation.