January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, PivotPoint said:

 

Guys and girls, we can get the 500mb to look good all day long... but the surface temps are going to destroy our frozen. Watch: PSU will be saying two weeks from now “the pattern progress the way we wanted it but we couldn’t overcome the AN temp anomalies and our source region”. Something like: “perfect track, bad temps”. I get that that the AK low may retro and we pop a PNA and get our west based block. But we have NO COLD AIR! At least by the time it reaches us from its Luke-cold source region. We need that blocking to disappear and build cold, then recycle 3-4 weeks from low and and enjoy a 2-3 week period of winter. Not being a downer, hope I’m wrong but the AN surface temps are going to be a real issue here folks

I’ll take my chances with the mid-January ensemble 500 maps - that type of west-based -NAO coupled with a less hostile Pacific should provide the ingredients we need for snow in our area.  Granted I’m by no means knowledgeable compared to most here but I find it hard to believe as/if the pattern evolves in January with that block and (hopefully) a better Pacific, we wouldn’t score a storm.  If the Pacific continues to be hostile, I’d be less bullish near the cities.

[Ji]

Test


.

[PivotPoint]

1 hour ago, frd said:

If you want to play voodoo outcomes, lets say the SSWE officially triggers on the 5 th of Jan, ( per the Euro )  the cold would not become evident in the East until near January 25 th to Feb 1 st. 

The map above is only January 8th.

Also, keep in mind if the Urals High re-builds we will continue to get +EAMT events.  

I don’t see how my comment of our current base state is vodooo outcomes. I actually think quite the opposite, I believe my point is that I’m not wishcasting for snow but rather looking at where we currently stand and how we logically roll forward. 
 

And with respect to the EAMT events: sure if we get recycling of AN heights that trigger a +EAMT that would bode well down the line for colder anomalies up north... but that’s pretty close to actual vodooo whether that comes to fruition, so

[PivotPoint]

25 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’ll take my chances with the mid-January ensemble 500 maps - that type of west-based -NAO coupled with a less hostile Pacific should provide the ingredients we need for snow in our area.  Granted I’m by no means knowledgeable compared to most here but I find it hard to believe as/if the pattern evolves in January with that block and (hopefully) a better Pacific, we wouldn’t score a storm.  If the Pacific continues to be hostile, I’d be less bullish near the cities.

I’d agree with that last sentence and was kind of my whole point. And I’ve also said that now for over two weeks so it’s not like I’m just jumping on the negative train here. The PAC needs to reshuffle for our chances to improve. I know that’s kind of simpleton logic, but honestly I think things get too tech-y in here sometimes when the current answer (and future improvement) is “sometimes” a little more straightforward. We need our cold source to improve. We need pacific help and some semblance of a mean ridge out west. Then we have a chance that is higher than unicorns and snowmen “it might snow” in this crappy pattern, lol

[yoda]

9 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

I’d agree with that last sentence and was kind of my whole point. And I’ve also said that now for over two weeks so it’s not like I’m just jumping on the negative train here. The PAC needs to reshuffle for our chances to improve. I know that’s kind of simpleton logic, but honestly I think things get too tech-y in here sometimes when the current answer (and future improvement) is “sometimes” a little more straightforward. We need our cold source to improve. We need pacific help and some semblance of a mean ridge out west. Then we have a chance that is higher than unicorns and snowmen “it might snow” in this crappy pattern, lol

We don't necessarily need Pacific help... just time things correctly or have the ridge in the West in the correct spot as a s/w comes through or SLP and we are fine.  We don't need a raging +PNA to get snow around here in January and February... a slightly positive PNA will do the trick

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, PivotPoint said:

How is a west based NAO block going to help if our source is warm “relatively”, and the PAC doesn’t improve which is necessary to shut off the flow of maritime air cross the continent. No cross polar flow and a crappy PAC... I’m not sure I agree the PAC doesn’t need to improve for our chances to improve. Maybe I missed your point

First of all the pac has not been that awful. But we are recovering from this in Nov 

which left N Amer scorched.  But the means this month are fine. 

the N Pac trough mean axis is far enough west not to be a major problem.  And despite starting from a warm base state it got cold enough to snow in Richmond and the northern 1/3 of our forum and just to our west Xmas eve.  Right now our bigger problem is we’re still recovering from a late start and the WAR.  There is actually a decent ridge on the pac side right now  

but the last 2 and next system cut because of the WAR!  The pac isn’t the problem.  Now it’s about to be.  A near record low is crashing into the Bering Sea and for a while the whole trough amplifies end shifts east.  This here is no good and kills us for about 7-10 Days  

so yea we need that to improve but that’s not been the pac base state and guidance says it’s only temporary and pulls back again  

that there is fine!   It won’t be arctic...but you keep the flow into the east out of northern Canada and it will be cold enough.  It was cold enough for Richmond and Nashville and everyone just NW of 95 2 weeks ago!  
 

lastly what you want isn’t realistic. We’re in a Nina. You want to remove the N pac low and NAO and think we would pop some full lat EPO PNA ridge? No. We would go back to that November look!  The NAO and Aleutian low are all that’s keeping that pattern at bay and you want to toss them?  
 

 

 

 

[PivotPoint]

17 minutes ago, yoda said:

We don't necessarily need Pacific help... just time things correctly or have the ridge in the West in the correct spot as a s/w comes through or SLP and we are fine.  We don't need a raging +PNA to get snow around here in January and February... a slightly positive PNA will do the trick

Yea, but we do. The Pacific/North American oscillation is simply a phase that refers to relative amplitude. The PNA (itself) is not a mechanism. It’s a result of a atmospheric mechanism, specifically phase pressure differences over the central Pacific Ocean and Rossby Wave Effect. So yea, we need PAC help to get a ridge out west

[PivotPoint]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

First of all the pac has not been that awful. But we are recovering from this in Nov 

which left N Amer scorched.  But the means this month are fine. 

the N Pac trough mean axis is far enough west not to be a major problem.  And despite starting from a warm base state it got cold enough to snow in Richmond and the northern 1/3 of our forum and just to our west Xmas eve.  Right now our bigger problem is we’re still recovering from a late start and the WAR.  There is actually a decent ridge on the pac side right now  

but the last 2 and next system cut because of the WAR!  The pac isn’t the problem.  Now it’s about to be.  A near record low is crashing into the Bering Sea and for a while the whole trough amplifies end shifts east.  This here is no good and kills us for about 7-10 Days  

so yea we need that to improve but that’s not been the pac base state and guidance says it’s only temporary and pulls back again  

that there is fine!   It won’t be arctic...but you keep the flow into the east out of northern Canada and it will be cold enough.  It was cold enough for Richmond and Nashville and everyone just NW of 95 2 weeks ago!  
 

lastly what you want isn’t realistic. We’re in a Nina. You want to remove the N pac low and NAO and think we would pop some full lat EPO PNA ridge? No. We would go back to that November look!  The NAO and Aleutian low are all that’s keeping that pattern at bay and you want to toss them?  
 

 

 

 

Some points in there well taken but hasn’t the Northern PAC had a fairly stable trough through most the second half of dec? I see a low in gulf of AK and ridging so far west it’s on the the other side of the PAC. And to be clear, I’m not asking for a a full alt PNA ridge from the gulf of AK to San Diego, but yes I think that removing the huge + anomaly around Greenland could have an effect on draining some of that cold air out of East Asia.  Now I’ll admit that I’m not an expert to be able to explain that’s mechanism. But I will say that having a trough out west with a mediocre cold source for us and cold air locked up in Asia is NOT what we want. I see a huge anomaly over Greenland and can’t help but think that this is part of the atmospheric mechanism that is to not allowing cold to travel to our part of the hemisphere. I’m sure some of my rationale is flawed but I have a hunch that there’s part of it that makes sense.

[yoda]

We haven't seen a -NAO/-AO tandem in years and when we finally do... some apparently have to find something wrong with it.

[fujiwara79]

i believe we had a severely negative -nao/-ao during the winter of 59-60.  and yet we were completely snowless until sometime in february that season?  patience.

[Maestrobjwa]

48 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said:

i believe we had a severely negative -nao/-ao during the winter of 59-60.  and yet we were completely snowless until sometime in february that season?  patience.

Just looked at the record...dang, what the heck happened that March? 21" inches at BWI? Lol

[Heisy]

Wow euro actually has a really good setup day 9. It closes off the Rainer in perfect confluence spot. Energy cutting underneath the block. It might be kind of weak sauce but it’s def a good look. 

[Heisy]

Really close call to a much better storm. That is frigging amazing pattern at the end of the run. Let’s cross our fingers. Full on west based retrograding block. 

[yoda]

hello there

[nj2va]

Woof.

Also, EPS still with a signal for a coastal low on the 11/12 on the MSLP anomaly maps.  

[frd]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Woof.

Also, EPS still with a signal for a coastal low on the 11/12 on the MSLP anomaly maps.  

 

NAM state improving. 

 

 

 

 

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

 

NAM state improving. 

 

 

That looks like something my 4 year old nephew drew for me....can you explain that?  

[yoda]

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

That looks like something my 4 year old nephew drew for me....can you explain that?  

I can translate it for ya ... 

[frd]

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

That looks like something my 4 year old nephew drew for me....can you explain that?  

HL becoming more negative as indicated by the blue colors, this increases over time. A very positive factor for eventual cold and snow in the East.  

[PivotPoint]

7 hours ago, yoda said:

We haven't seen a -NAO/-AO tandem in years and when we finally do... some apparently have to find something wrong with it.

Find something wrong with it? It’s not a tv show lol... there’s nothing “wrong with it”. It’s that the block, Yoda, is blocking “in” marginally cold air and a negative AO is only as useful as the arctic air the region draws from. I’m not saying it can’t snow or that it definitely won’t snow. I’m just not a cheerleader no matter the pattern. I’m saying that we need ridging upstream, plain and simple. Do we HAVE to have it to have snow, of course not. Flukey stuff happens all of the time. I’ve simply stated, however, that huge blocks do us little good if there is a trough out west with marginally cold air in Canada. Fix either of those issues and we we a totally different track and or temp profile. I mean, or you a fan of warm cutters? Because that is what “this” pattern is delivering, even with blocking.

[frd]

 

 

 I like the sound of this, a huge player for sure. 

 

 

[frd]

 

Hmmm......

 

 

 

 

[nj2va]

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I can translate it fo ya ... 

NOS NOW?  Sounds ominous.

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Find something wrong with it? It’s not a tv show lol... there’s nothing “wrong with it”. It’s that the block, Yoda, is blocking “in” marginally cold air and a negative AO is only as useful as the arctic air the region draws from. I’m not saying it can’t snow or that it definitely won’t snow. I’m just not a cheerleader no matter the pattern. I’m saying that we need ridging upstream, plain and simple. Do we HAVE to have it to have snow, of course not. Flukey stuff happens all of the time. I’ve simply stated, however, that huge blocks do us little good if there is a trough out west with marginally cold air in Canada. Fix either of those issues and we we a totally different track and or temp profile. I mean, or you a fan of warm cutters? Because that is what “this” pattern is delivering, even with blocking.

Better go let HM and Simon Lee and Eric Webb know then

[anotherman]

5 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Find something wrong with it? It’s not a tv show lol... there’s nothing “wrong with it”. It’s that the block, Yoda, is blocking “in” marginally cold air and a negative AO is only as useful as the arctic air the region draws from. I’m not saying it can’t snow or that it definitely won’t snow. I’m just not a cheerleader no matter the pattern. I’m saying that we need ridging upstream, plain and simple. Do we HAVE to have it to have snow, of course not. Flukey stuff happens all of the time. I’ve simply stated, however, that huge blocks do us little good if there is a trough out west with marginally cold air in Canada. Fix either of those issues and we we a totally different track and or temp profile. I mean, or you a fan of warm cutters? Because that is what “this” pattern is delivering, even with blocking.

You might be right.  It might not snow.  But why dig in like this?  Science is about testing new ideas and accepting that you are often going to be incorrect with those ideas.  It's just how it goes.  No need to be so oppositional.

[yoda]

 

[nj2va]

13 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Find something wrong with it? It’s not a tv show lol... there’s nothing “wrong with it”. It’s that the block, Yoda, is blocking “in” marginally cold air and a negative AO is only as useful as the arctic air the region draws from. I’m not saying it can’t snow or that it definitely won’t snow. I’m just not a cheerleader no matter the pattern. I’m saying that we need ridging upstream, plain and simple. Do we HAVE to have it to have snow, of course not. Flukey stuff happens all of the time. I’ve simply stated, however, that huge blocks do us little good if there is a trough out west with marginally cold air in Canada. Fix either of those issues and we we a totally different track and or temp profile. I mean, or you a fan of warm cutters? Because that is what “this” pattern is delivering, even with blocking.

The “blocking” right now is just an extension of the WAR and really isn’t legit blocking.  Get a west based -NAO like every ensemble is showing ~10-12ish days from now and I just can’t see storms cutting into that block.  Just my .02.

[PivotPoint]

13 minutes ago, yoda said:

Better go let HM and Simon Lee and Eric Webb know then

The tweet you posted from Webb is fine and well, by he says “Cold? Sure.” Then shows a 10-15 day ensemble mean of 500mb that, yea, has a great west based huge NAO and slight ridging. It is a good look. But people underestimate the issues that we “DC” folk have with temps. PSU cited a the December storm as “see, it was almost cold enough and it was only mid December”. And it actually kind of proves my point. DC got nothing from that. And the reason was partly track but mostly mid-levels could hang on and we were flooded with WAA because our airmass wasn’t stout enough. Fast forward, Jan and Feb should fix that issue, right? I mean, another moth of cold building up would be enough to help a marginal setup, one would assume. I’m making the point that the cold is there like we would typically expect, and what looks like a great 500 could be great for Winchester on west, even with a great block and confluence to the north. We’lol have to wait and see but this isn’t a “he knows more, he’s a met, you be quiet” type deal. My issue with temps and what the block has not allowed to happen “building of substantially cold air” I view as a potential factor rolling through even a “good” upper air look.

[PivotPoint]

7 minutes ago, anotherman said:

You might be right.  It might not snow.  But why dig in like this?  Science is about testing new ideas and accepting that you are often going to be incorrect with those ideas.  It's just how it goes.  No need to be so oppositional.

Science is about being oppositional. And I was just saying my thoughts, Yoda said”I have to find something wrong”. Did not start this one, as I typically get blamed for this stuff. Sheesh