January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

[psuhoffman]

This is NOT the same as waiting for a late save in March. Yea it sucks to wait until later January but honestly this is our climo MO. And frankly if we want to pick the absolute best time to maximize the probabilities of taking advantage of blocking and cold late January into February is it!

 

[aldie 22]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 

Great 50s through February 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Great 50s through February 

1987 was an analog showing up a lot in the ncep list and the one big snow we got in Feb that year was 50 the day before and after...but it snowed 12-20” with temps around 33-34 degrees in between lol. 

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE @WxUSAF EPS is a carbon copy of the GEFS. 

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

1987 was an analog showing up a lot in the ncep list and the one big snow we got in Feb that year was 50 the day before and after...but it snowed 12-20” with temps around 33-34 degrees in between lol. 

87 had one week of winter basically and those back to back bombs...I could be wrong 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF this is about as big a “real” ridge signature as I think you will ever see on a day 16 prog. Even a hint of a 50/50 sig. 

 

Yeah that’s a very nice look.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

87 had one week of winter basically and those back to back bombs...I could be wrong 

Was a little more then that. But a lot of the snow was warm storms that melted fast.  There was a warm storm earlier in Jan that dropped like 3-6” NW. there was one week of cold in late January with 2 storms bookending it.  The first was better NW and the second SE of 95.   Then a MECS 10-20” storm across the area in Feb. but it was a warm storm. 50s before and after and temps above freezing during the snow. I was near Philly and we got about 14” but the next day had to drive to Harpers Ferry for a baptism. We left early morning with a foot of snow and by the time we got to MD the snow was pretty much all gone. Harpers Ferry had 18” but when we got there mid afternoon nothing was left but piles. Lol

[WxUSAF]

Agree, if we’re going to get things lined up in our favor, the last 10 days of January and first 10 days of February is an ideal time for it. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Was a little more then that. But a lot of the snow was warm storms that melted fast.  There was a warm storm earlier in Jan that dropped like 3-6” NW. there was one week of cold in late January with 2 storms bookending it.  The first was better NW and the second SE of 95.   Then a MECS 10-20” storm across the area in Feb. but it was a warm storm. 50s before and after and temps above freezing during the snow. I was near Philly and we got about 14” but the next day had to drive to Harpers Ferry for a baptism. We left early morning with a foot of snow and by the time we got to MD the snow was pretty much all gone. Harpers Ferry had 18” but when we got there mid afternoon nothing was left but piles. Lol

Sounds about as appealing as stepping in a steaming pile of dog poo barefoot.  Where do I sign

[Grothar of Herndon]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Was a little more then that. But a lot of the snow was warm storms that melted fast.  There was a warm storm earlier in Jan that dropped like 3-6” NW. there was one week of cold in late January with 2 storms bookending it.  The first was better NW and the second SE of 95.   Then a MECS 10-20” storm across the area in Feb. but it was a warm storm. 50s before and after and temps above freezing during the snow. I was near Philly and we got about 14” but the next day had to drive to Harpers Ferry for a baptism. We left early morning with a foot of snow and by the time we got to MD the snow was pretty much all gone. Harpers Ferry had 18” but when we got there mid afternoon nothing was left but piles. Lol

@WinterWxLouvr would not be happy with the temps! BTW, do you remember the April 1987 Southwest VA snowstorm? I was living in Wise VA and we had over 2' 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Sounds about as appealing as stepping in a steaming pile of dog poo barefoot.  Where do I sign

I knew that would be up your alley 

[Maestrobjwa]

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is NOT the same as waiting for a late save in March. Yea it sucks to wait until later January but honestly this is our climo MO. And frankly if we want to pick the absolute best time to maximize the probabilities of taking advantage of blocking and cold late January into February is it!

 

Yeah seriously though...I'm not sure why folks are fretting over having to wait until mid/late January...that IS our primo. Just take a look at this list of our biggest storms, and when they occured: (courtesy of the Baltimore Sun)

Notice that of the top 20, only 3 occurred before the middle of January. The rest occurred after that!

1. Feb. 15-18, 2003:  28.2 inches     

2. Jan. 27-29, 1922:  26.5 inches        

3. Feb. 5-6, 2010:  24.8 inches*

4. Feb. 11, 1983:  22.8 inches

5. Jan. 7-8, 1996:  22.5 inches

6. Mar. 29-30, 1942:  22.0 inches

7. Feb. 11-14, 1899:  21.4 inches        

8. Dec. 18-19, 2009:  21.1 inches

9. Feb. 18-19, 1979:  20.0 inches

10. Feb. 9-10, 2010:  19.5 inches

11. Mar. 15-18, 1892:  16.0 inches

12. Feb. 15, 1958:  15.5 inches           

13. Jan. 25, 2000:  14.9 inches

14. Dec. 11-12, 1960:  14.1 inches

15. Feb. 11-12, 2006:  13.1 inches

16. Mar. 5-7, 1962:  13.0 inches

17: Jan. 22, 1987:  12.3 inches        

18. Jan. 30-31, 1966:  12.1 inches

19. Feb. 16-18, 1900:  12.0 inches

20. Mar. 13-14, 1993:  11.9 inches

 

[nj2va]

EPS with a bit of a signal for a coastal on the 11th.  Long ways out but it’s been showing up for a few runs.

[WinterWxLuvr]

23 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

@WinterWxLouvr would not be happy with the temps! BTW, do you remember the April 1987 Southwest VA snowstorm? I was living in Wise VA and we had over 2' 

Oh yes. I remember that one well. Basically snowed from Thursday evening through Sunday afternoon. I think it snowed 31” but there was never more than about 18” on the ground where I lived.

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah seriously though...I'm not sure why folks are fretting over having to wait until mid/late January...that IS our primo. Just take a look at this list of our biggest storms, and when they occured: (courtesy of the Baltimore Sun)

Notice that of the top 20, only 3 occurred before the middle of January. The rest occurred after that!

1. Feb. 15-18, 2003:  28.2 inches     

2. Jan. 27-29, 1922:  26.5 inches        

3. Feb. 5-6, 2010:  24.8 inches*

4. Feb. 11, 1983:  22.8 inches

5. Jan. 7-8, 1996:  22.5 inches

6. Mar. 29-30, 1942:  22.0 inches

7. Feb. 11-14, 1899:  21.4 inches        

8. Dec. 18-19, 2009:  21.1 inches

9. Feb. 18-19, 1979:  20.0 inches

10. Feb. 9-10, 2010:  19.5 inches

11. Mar. 15-18, 1892:  16.0 inches

12. Feb. 15, 1958:  15.5 inches           

13. Jan. 25, 2000:  14.9 inches

14. Dec. 11-12, 1960:  14.1 inches

15. Feb. 11-12, 2006:  13.1 inches

16. Mar. 5-7, 1962:  13.0 inches

17: Jan. 22, 1987:  12.3 inches        

18. Jan. 30-31, 1966:  12.1 inches

19. Feb. 16-18, 1900:  12.0 inches

20. Mar. 13-14, 1993:  11.9 inches

 

You can add Jan 22 2016 to that list.  I’m well aware our snow climo is skewed to the back half of winter, to the consternation of many on here. 

[Ji]

You can add Jan 22 2016 to that list.  I’m well aware our snow climo is skewed to the back half of winter, to the consternation of many on here. 

When is our last good jan 1-15 event? I think 13-14 had a 9 inch mecs followed by near zero temps. That was amazing

[jaydreb]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You can add Jan 22 2016 to that list.  I’m well aware our snow climo is skewed to the back half of winter, to the consternation of many on here. 

When is our last good jan 1-15 event? I think 13-14 had a 9 inch mecs followed by near zero temps. That was amazing

The beltway got around a foot in 2019.  

[aldie 22]

I guess one positive right now is that this is usually the time CAPE and PSU are telling us about the January thaw showing up on the models. At least now the talk is about the possible late January good pattern

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You can add Jan 22 2016 to that list.  I’m well aware our snow climo is skewed to the back half of winter, to the consternation of many on here. 

When is our last good jan 1-15 event? I think 13-14 had a 9 inch mecs followed by near zero temps. That was amazing

The 9” one was around the 20th. There was a 4-6” event in early Jan followed by sub zero. Then it warmed to 50 the next day and melted. Lol

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

I guess one positive right now is that this is usually the time CAPE and PSU are telling us about the January thaw showing up on the models. At least now the talk is about the possible late January good pattern

Don’t worry by the time it gets here we will be worried about the thaw showing on the long range. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t worry by the time it gets here we will be worried about the thaw showing on the long range. 

And sun angle

[wxdude64]

51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Was a little more then that. But a lot of the snow was warm storms that melted fast.  There was a warm storm earlier in Jan that dropped like 3-6” NW. there was one week of cold in late January with 2 storms bookending it.  The first was better NW and the second SE of 95.   Then a MECS 10-20” storm across the area in Feb. but it was a warm storm. 50s before and after and temps above freezing during the snow. I was near Philly and we got about 14” but the next day had to drive to Harpers Ferry for a baptism. We left early morning with a foot of snow and by the time we got to MD the snow was pretty much all gone. Harpers Ferry had 18” but when we got there mid afternoon nothing was left but piles. Lol

I'll take winter 87 repeat.... 33.8 in Jan and 16.6 in Feb.

[WVclimo]

16 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

The beltway got around a foot in 2019.  

The metro area did better than here for that 1/12-13 event in 2019.  I finished with just under 7".  I think Baltimore got shafted though.

[Maestrobjwa]

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You can add Jan 22 2016 to that list.  I’m well aware our snow climo is skewed to the back half of winter, to the consternation of many on here. 

Ah yes...I think the article I copy and pasted from was from before 2016, lol And yeah I know YOU know...posting more for others here!

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

The metro area did better than here for that 1/12-13 event in 2019.  I finished with just under 7".  I think Baltimore got shafted though.

We sure did...which is why I don't even count it!

[aldie 22]

13 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

The metro area did better than here for that 1/12-13 event in 2019.  I finished with just under 7".  I think Baltimore got shafted though.

ji got a foot but of course he already forgot

[Ji]

ji got a foot but of course he already forgot

Forgot about that one. Mainly because the rest of winter was supposed to be promising per weeklies and it failed

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

ji got a foot but of course he already forgot

Forgot about that one. Mainly because the rest of winter was supposed to be promising per weeklies and it failed

You ended up just shy of 30" although I think you rounded up anyway lol

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

18 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

ji got a foot but of course he already forgot

Forgot about that one. Mainly because the rest of winter was supposed to be promising per weeklies and it failed

Let me ask you something...are you ever actually thankful when you do get snow?