January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

[cbmclean]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

(remember my soul crushing post last December)

My soul still has the wrinkle marks from where it was crushed by that post.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That vortex needs to relax though. We aren't getting any cold now, other than briefly behind a storm, and it isn't even that cold. Need to strike some sort of balance, and flirting with a SE ridge is par for the course in a Nina. As long as we have legit blocking, a mean trough further west could still work. That vortex has been dumping energy out west and amplifying it, and we ridge out anyway with storms tracking NW. 

We don’t have a west based block now. The attempt at that this week failed. The storms that were supposed to assist to retrograde the WAR ended to cutting so far west the instead ended up pressing the ridge east more.  The one time in December the AO really ranked we did get cold enough and a legit snow threat. Details didn’t work out but I’ll take that over playing with the fire if that WPO vortex vacates. Given where the tropical pac forcing is...if we lose that n pac vortex I don’t think we get the PNA everyone wants. My guess is we pop a central pac ridge western trough. 

[cbmclean]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

everyone is mad at that north Pac trough but we’ve had some epic snowfall regimes with that look. 1996, 2003, 2010.

I am not disputing your larger point about the danger of the Pacific Doom Blob (it still haunts my dreams from last year).  You have mentioned our unfortunate antecedent conditions.  Maybe this look CAN produce, but only if it is not preceded by a month-long continent-wide torch?  It would be interesting to go back and look at the preceding month or two before the snow periods of 1993, 1996, and 2010.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

My soul still has the wrinkle marks from where it was crushed by that post.

Sorry...I took a lot of heat for that post (@Mersky)and I totally understand why...but it was 100% accurate.  I guess I’m not a stick your head in the sand kinda guy. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I am not disputing your larger point about the danger of the Pacific Doom Blob (it still haunts my dreams from last year).  You have mentioned our unfortunate antecedent conditions.  Maybe this look CAN produce, but only if it is not preceded by a month-long continent-wide torch?  It would be interesting to go back and look at the preceding month or two before the snow periods of 1993, 1996, and 2010.

Maybe not but a central pac ridge pattern won’t be any better. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We don’t have a west based block now. The attempt at that this week failed. The storms that were supposed to assist to retrograde the WAR ended to cutting so far west the instead ended up pressing the ridge east more.  The one time in December the AO really ranked we did get cold enough and a legit snow threat. Details didn’t work out but I’ll take that over playing with the fire if that WPO vortex vacates. Given where the tropical pac forcing is...if we lose that n pac vortex I don’t think we get the PNA everyone wants. My guess is we pop a central pac ridge western trough. 

I guess everyone can root for the variation they think is better, and its going to do what its going to do regardless, and we will all live with the results lol.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The sw goes a bit too far north but nice too see a strong coastal verbatim.  

 

I actually have thought for a while that storm is likely to trend more amplified...but I also think think it ends up mostly a rainstorm so I haven’t given it much thought. 

[anotherman]

I actually have thought for a while that storm is likely to trend more amplified...but I also think think it ends up mostly a rainstorm so I haven’t given it much thought. 

Crushing dreams today.

[cbmclean]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sorry...I took a lot of heat for that post (@Mersky)and I totally understand why...but it was 100% accurate.  I guess I’m not a stick your head in the sand kinda guy. 

No, If we are screwed, I would prefer to know it ahead of time, so I appreciated it.  It was still sad, though.  Speaking of Mersky, I haven't seen him around lately.

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, PivotPoint said:

The only way to help fox our source region this late in the game would be a SSWE

Well luckily, one of these seems to be on tap.  It's a crap shoot as to whether it will help or not.  But it seems to be coming, nonetheless.

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I guess everyone can root for the variation they think is better, and its going to do what its going to do regardless, and we will all live with the results lol.

This is just for fun but the end of the GFS run is how I see our best chance of getting snow.  Something like this.  It retrogrades the blocking into Canada. Same PAC look with the WPO EPO vortex sensing systems into the west. Which leads to this...

that system is trying to cut...but it’s not going too.  Look at all the confluence to our north.  There is a 50/50 stuck just off the screen and there are lobes rotating around, one is just over top us.  
The 850s look iffy at a glance but look at all the dry air 

And as the system approaches the 850s are already crashing in TN and GA when the precip hits the dry air. All that +1 air over NC will end up below 0 once it saturates and has to advent north before we would go to rain. 

This was an incoming snow event. It may have been a snow to ice to rain event...but it was at least a decent frozen event oncoming. Same crap pac. Being offset by the blocking. That’s what history says should happen in that pattern. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

 Speaking of Mersky, I haven't seen him around lately.

I guess 2020 didn’t end all bad 

[psuhoffman]

Long range gefs is seeing a bit more of a 50/50 signature. That’s one way this could flip colder fast. Get enough of that and it will fight the eastern ridge. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is just for fun but the end of the GFS run is how I see our best chance of getting snow.  Something like this.  It retrogrades the blocking into Canada. Same PAC look with the WPO EPO vortex sensing systems into the west. Which leads to this...

 

that system is trying to cut...but it’s not going too.  Look at all the confluence to our north.  There is a 50/50 stuck just off the screen and there are lobes rotating around, one is just over top us.  
The 850s look iffy at a glance but look at all the dry air 

And as the system approaches the 850s are already crashing in TN and GA when the precip hits the dry air. All that +1 air over NC will end up below 0 once it saturates and has to advent north before we would go to rain. 
 

This was an incoming snow event. It may have been a snow to ice to rain event...but it was at least a decent frozen event oncoming. Same crap pac. Being offset by the blocking. That’s what history says should happen in that pattern. 

That is a nice progression and can work despite marginal cold with a block like that. Lets hope we see more of that inside day 15 over the next few days

[Eskimo Joe]

It's a damn shame we can rid ourselves of this low in the Gulf of Alaska. Without it, that Aleutian Low would be pumping one hell of a west coast ridge for us. 

[nj2va]

Euro tracks the Sunday low from Raleigh to Williamsburg to Ocean City.  Rain for the mountains even.

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE 

the new gefs is perfect Imo. This is exactly where we want that N PAC trough. This pumps heights into western N America and gets the ridge axis along the west coast. That’s even too far west without blocking but with a -NAO that promotes the broad trough look under the block we want.  Pull that Pac trough any further west though and the ridge pulls back into the PAC and that broad trough will split with the cold dumping into the west and a SE ridge will pop.  Give me exactly what the GEFS is showing now.  It’s not being pushed back in time so far either. Today actually sped up the progression by about a day. 
 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Euro tracks the Sunday low from Raleigh to Williamsburg to Ocean City.  Rain for the mountains even.

That’s very encouraging to me. We won’t keep losing with that track

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE 

the new gefs is perfect Imo. This is exactly where we want that N PAC trough. This pumps heights into western N America and gets the ridge axis along the west coast. That’s even too far west without blocking but with a -NAO that promotes the broad trough look under the block we want.  Pull that Pac trough any further west though and the ridge pulls back into the PAC and that broad trough will split with the cold dumping into the west and a SE ridge will pop.  Give me exactly what the GEFS is showing now.  It’s not being pushed back in time so far either. Today actually sped up the progression by about a day. 
 

That is the general look that I was touting last night with the Euro weeklies and this morning on the extended GEFS. I get your point about ridge placement sensitivity, but we are playing with fire almost all the time anyway. As long as that trough isn't a monster sitting over GoA, it think we will be in pretty good shape, and a ridge might get us a little more cold to work with.

[psuhoffman]

@WxUSAF this is about as big a “real” ridge signature as I think you will ever see on a day 16 prog. Even a hint of a 50/50 sig. 

 

[Heisy]

Much improved long range euro run so far. At 222 block is moving more west pushing confluence south 

losetoa beat me by 1 second, ugh

[aldie 22]

meh....bootleg

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

GGEM out of nowhere now has the coastal...but too warm

Did you expect otherwise?

 

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

The sw goes a bit too far north but nice too see a strong coastal verbatim.  

 

How many more examples of an ideal storm track with snow confined to the apps are we going to be tortured with?

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF this is about as big a “real” ridge signature as I think you will ever see on a day 16 prog. Even a hint of a 50/50 sig. 

 

 Definitely a legit looking ridge towards the end of  this run.

Maybe there was more spread on the previous runs wrt to exact location, causing flatter height lines on the mean.

[Ji]

Euro adds a 50/50 with a super block at 216 
 
Ninjd again 

The surface don't care

[cbmclean]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

The surface don't care

I like that little tiny cool anomaly over the UP of Michigan.  They are going to get their snow regardless.

[cbmclean]

14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

 

 

[psuhoffman]

 

 

[psuhoffman]

It has begun...

 

[George BM]

FYI: Para-gfs is updating on tropicaltidbits again.