January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

[Heisy]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

Define 'potential'.

Yeah it ain’t snowing with a low in the lakes and high off the coast, but it could change. Encouraging runs last night. 

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There we go. Thats the look we need to get the cold air that's locked up in Siberia/Mongolia over the pole into a better region to tap. Now get that look under 7 days! 

Anyone bored on Christmas Eve and care to explain the mechanics of how this "look" leads to air flow from Asia to Canada.  I do not know enough to see it.  I understand the basic concepts of 500 MB anomalies and such, but I do not understand how various anomalies direct airflow from one region to another.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, cbmclean said:

Anyone bored on Christmas Eve and care to explain the mechanics of how this "look" leads to air flow from Asia to Canada.  I do not know enough to see it.  I understand the basic concepts of 500 MB anomalies and such, but I do not understand how various anomalies direct airflow from one region to another.

Just look for an unimpeded channel for the cold to filter through.

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Anyone bored on Christmas Eve and care to explain the mechanics of how this "look" leads to air flow from Asia to Canada.  I do not know enough to see it.  I understand the basic concepts of 500 MB anomalies and such, but I do not understand how various anomalies direct airflow from one region to another.

Extremely dumbed down and simplified, but follow the streamline (green arrow) around the EPO ridge. Not a true CPF but a better look to get 'some' negative temp anomalies down into the US. 

And we better hope that EPO look is even remotely close, because if that PAC firehose into the West Coast verifies per that map without some AO/NAO blocking holding which would allow the PJ to dip South into the GL and Northeast, then we are in trouble.

 

[cbmclean]

37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Extremely dumbed down and simplified, but follow the streamline (green arrow) around the EPO ridge. Not a true CPF but a better look to get 'some' negative temp anomalies down into the US. 

And we better hope that EPO look is even remotely close, because if that PAC firehose into the West Coast verifies per that map without some AO/NAO blocking holding which would allow the PJ to dip South into the GL and Northeast, then we are in trouble.

 

Thank you Mr. Wiggum. By the way, I am a big fan of your work.  Your portrayal of George Washington in the school play was especially powerful.

[ryanconway63]

end of the Euro looks interesting.....im sure it will work out for us all......

[Ralph Wiggum]

Day 10 Euro looks...interesting. Same interesting 10 day look as yesterday....and the day before....and the day before. Seeing a theme. Need this look to start moving up in lead time.

Verbatim that is a nice Baffin Block developing and a sweet -AO....but 10 days.

[CAPE]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Day 10 Euro looks...interesting. Same interesting 10 day look as yesterday....and the day before....and the day before. Seeing a theme. Need this look to start moving up in lead time.

Looks a bit more interesting today to me.

Nothing interesting on the 12z GFS. Surprised Ji wasn't in here yelling DISASTER. Other than the snow showers tomorrow, it doesn't have a single digital flake east of the mountains through day 15 lol.

[Ji]

the euro looks great at D10. The best storms are those storms that have wide precip swath where its snowing here while the Low is still in the southeast states. That looked like it was headed for 1-2 feet lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, CAPE said:

Looks a bit more interesting today to me.

Nothing interesting on the 12z GFS. Surprised Ji wasn't in here yelling DISASTER. Other than the snow showers tomorrow, it doesn't have a single digital flake east of the mountains through day 15 lol.

Agreed. I mean...there's your unicorn. Let's see what Ji and the EPS say

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks a bit more interesting today to me.

Nothing interesting on the 12z GFS. Surprised Ji wasn't in here yelling DISASTER. Other than the snow showers tomorrow, it doesn't have a single digital flake east of the mountains through day 15 lol.

It’s funny to hear other than snow on Christmas. I actually think the next runs of the GFS will look better because h5 looks promising.  Christmas Eve wishing but I just have a feeling since I started HH early today

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro looks great at D10. The best storms are those storms that have wide precip swath where its snowing here while the Low is still in the southeast states. That looked like it was headed for 1-2 feet lol

For the people 

 

[dallen7908]

Please move all 10-day EURO plots to the digital snow forum - Only half kidding.   What I'd give to live in a world where the 10-day EURO map was climatology

[psuhoffman]

@Ji the setup is nice but verbatim I don’t think that would turn the corner. The trough split and the northern SW is pressing down on the STJ one. Its a nice little event but I doubt it became a monster in the next frame. My interpretation isn’t 100% though, there is enough room that MAYBE...but it looked to slide east not turn the corner. But now we’re analyzing details when the whole synoptic setup will go through significant edits.

I’ll say this about today’s runs. They all get a perfect SW track going after the New Years cutter. The cmc is poised for something around day 11-12. Euro has it. Gfs has 2 perfect SW passes but the problem on the GFS is just no cold at all. None. Zip. That’s a threat. Won’t lie we’ve wasted blocks because of no cold early in the season before. Later in winter blocks work more and more to produce enough domestic cold. We will see. 

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Please move all 10-day EURO plots to the digital snow forum - Only half kidding.   What I'd give to live in a world where the 10-day EURO map was climatology

it nails rain/cutter events 10 days out all the time

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

@Ji the setup is nice but verbatim I don’t tuning that would turn the corner. The trough split and the northern SW is pressing down on the STJ one. Its a nice little event but I doubt it became a monster in the next frame. My interpretation isn’t 100% though, there is enough room that MAYBE...but it looked to slide east not turn the corner. But now we’re analyzing details when the whole synoptic setup will go through significant edits.

I’ll say this about today’s runs. They all get a perfect SW track going after the New Years cutter. The cmc is poised for something around day 11-12. Euro has it. Gfs has 2 pacerfect SW passes but the problem on the GFS is just no cold at all. None. Zip. That’s a threat. Won’t lie we’ve wasted blocks because of no cold early in the season before. Later in winter blocks work more and more to produce enough domestic cold. We will see. 

i was thinking the same thing actually---it would slide out but its already giving us heavy now even from where its at. If it gained just a bit of latitude....

 

anyway...its 10 days out but its interesting

[Ralph Wiggum]

 

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For the people 

 

Miller A? True unicorn!

That isnt a slider look. Follow the bagginess in isobars. Like psu said could go either way. Plus, its 10 days+ out so no sense debating it but my take is that would turn NE/ENE and not E.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

i was thinking the same thing actually---it would slide out but its already giving us heavy now even from where its at. If it gained just a bit of latitude....

 

anyway...its 10 days out but its interesting

Either get that NS SW out of the way, or behind it...really anywhere else but right on top and it’s a BIG storm. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji the setup is nice but verbatim I don’t think that would turn the corner. The trough split and the northern SW is pressing down on the STJ one. Its a nice little event but I doubt it became a monster in the next frame. My interpretation isn’t 100% though, there is enough room that MAYBE...but it looked to slide east not turn the corner. But now we’re analyzing details when the whole synoptic setup will go through significant edits.

I’ll say this about today’s runs. They all get a perfect SW track going after the New Years cutter. The cmc is poised for something around day 11-12. Euro has it. Gfs has 2 perfect SW passes but the problem on the GFS is just no cold at all. None. Zip. That’s a threat. Won’t lie we’ve wasted blocks because of no cold early in the season before. Later in winter blocks work more and more to produce enough domestic cold. We will see. 

With not a lot of cold around, this is a "safe" way to get a moderate event for the lowlands. Actually need the NS energy to suppress the SS wave some. Ofc it just happens to work out that way this run, but plenty of other variations are possible.

[psuhoffman]

@Ji the difference with this euro run v 0z was the block anchored more in our classic spot v over NF allowing the trough axis to progress further east before stalling and doing the same fujiwara deal. But for that range they have a similar idea wrt progression. 

[Orangeburgwx]

i was thinking the same thing actually---it would slide out but its already giving us heavy now even from where its at. If it gained just a bit of latitude....
 
anyway...its 10 days out but its interesting

Funny enough everyone on the Southeast forum needs the opposite to happen. Still, everyone from northern Florida (Jacksonville ish) to New York needs to watch close

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[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Still, everyone from northern Florida (Jacksonville ish) to New York needs to watch close
 

One would think we were tracking a Cat 3 in Sept if there was no context to this post.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

With not a lot of cold around, this is a "safe" way to get a moderate event for the lowlands. Actually need the NS energy to suppress the SS wave some. Ofc it just happens to work out that way this run, but plenty of other variations are possible.

If I were where you are...I would feel the same way. 

[stormtracker]

Not gonna lie, the Euro is scaring me.  I'll be away until the 4th and man...I'm sweating a little because it's been pretty persistent with that southern low.  Can we hold it off for 24 hours?

[Orangeburgwx]

Goodness Tennessee...

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[Heisy]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji the setup is nice but verbatim I don’t think that would turn the corner. The trough split and the northern SW is pressing down on the STJ one. Its a nice little event but I doubt it became a monster in the next frame. My interpretation isn’t 100% though, there is enough room that MAYBE...but it looked to slide east not turn the corner. But now we’re analyzing details when the whole synoptic setup will go through significant edits.

I’ll say this about today’s runs. They all get a perfect SW track going after the New Years cutter. The cmc is poised for something around day 11-12. Euro has it. Gfs has 2 perfect SW passes but the problem on the GFS is just no cold at all. None. Zip. That’s a threat. Won’t lie we’ve wasted blocks because of no cold early in the season before. Later in winter blocks work more and more to produce enough domestic cold. We will see. 

It’s a thread the needle but it’s a good setup still...verbatim (and not worth at this stage) you have to have the perfect balance of not phasing the ULL in Canada and not getting shredd d. This run basically did that. This would have been a foot plus for someone in VA this run. Eps looks like it shows it at H5 as well

[Heisy]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not gonna lie, the Euro is scaring me.  I'll be away until the 4th and man...I'm sweating a little because it's been pretty persistent with that southern low.  Can we hold it off for 24 hours?

You know you’re screwed already. This is how it works for us snow lovers. We’ve all been out of town during a big one. I missed Feb 2006 in Philly.

[aldie 22]

Hey guys is the January thaw showing up on the models yet? When does the blocking start to break down?

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

It’s a thread the needle but it’s a good setup still...verbatim (and not worth at this stage) you have to have the perfect balance of not phasing the ULL in Canada and not getting shredd d. This run basically did that. This would have been a foot plus for someone in VA this run. Eps looks like it shows it at H5 as well

Generally agree with your assessment.

EPS looks pretty decent at h5. Looking at the individual members there are a handful that have a moderate snow event during that window similar to the op,. Idk, a weakish signal for something day 10?

[Cobalt]

Not gonna lie, the Euro is scaring me.  I'll be away until the 4th and man...I'm sweating a little because it's been pretty persistent with that southern low.  Can we hold it off for 24 hours?

Hah, I’m leaving on the 3rd over here. Seems like these sort of storms like to move out a day or so In timing, so perhaps you’ll get your wish !


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