LP08 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Eps wants nothing to do with the Jan 3rd coastal that the OP showed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: Eps wants nothing to do with the Jan 3rd coastal that the OP showed. Wow... look at the difference on the EPS from 24 hours ago... 00Z yesterday 00z today If we see another trend like that.. we are looking at a legit CAD event. @psuhoffman you were right about the models struggling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, 40westwx said: Wow... look at the difference on the EPS from 24 hours ago... 00Z yesterday 00z today If we see another trend like that.. we are looking at a legit CAD event. @psuhoffman you were right about the models struggling. Thanks for showing this comparison. Weaker low + stronger high showing up in more frozen precip here. If that stupid Bermuda High could move further east or weaken, this could be a legit event for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Impressive for an ens mean....has the lp close to tracking under DC now. Major changes here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Wow... look at the difference on the EPS from 24 hours ago... 00Z yesterday 00z today If we see another trend like that.. we are looking at a legit CAD event. @psuhoffman you were right about the models struggling. I agree that’s it’s struggling and my post was mostly for posterity if that coastal does come out of nowhere. It was wild to see an OP spit out an almost snow event and have absolutely zero hits in the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 6z para GFS has the follow up snow event. Looks very much like the euro for the entire next 7 days. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Impressive for an ens mean....has the lp close to tracking under DC now. Major changes here. Canadian leading the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Canadian leading the way? Honestly it wouldn't be the first time in recent weeks the geps led the way. <weenie>Maybe because it is a Canadian model it is seeing the higher heights in HL better, eh.</weenie> Eta: On a serious note, we are seeing the first wave push thru with the associated slp acting as a quasi 50/50 aiding in better confluence over the NE. This is evident with decent HP and CAD now showing up across guidance. The eps maps someone posted above are a clear example of models seeing confluence under the blocking and HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 No time for greater detail but, wow to the new AO and NAO ensemble forecasts. Really diving down, looking better and better for a SECS based solely on those 2 indicates moving forward into January. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, frd said: No time for greater detail but, wow to the new AO and NAO ensemble forecasts. Really diving down, looking better and better for a SECS based solely on those 2 indicates moving forward into January. That PNA forecast would at least suggest not hostile even if not great 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That PNA forecast would at least suggest not hostile even if not great A great look on one side should only require a mediocre in the other. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 6z para GFS has the follow up snow event. Looks very much like the euro for the entire next 7 days. I’ve noticed the para is a euro clone a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: Canadian leading the way? Yeah.. it looks like it lets the energy in the SW hang back long enough so that the Friday system and the Monday system merges together as one event.. which is almost a snow storm for us. Fun stuff 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Other than at onset for northern areas, the GEPS is a rain event for late week. That high is sliding off the coast as the precip comes in. The wave for early next week is there, and verbatim its a glancing blow mainly for eastern areas, and it might be cold enough for frozen as modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 GFS getting a little frisky for the 3rd/4th. Closed H5 over northern AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Better ridging out west slowed the Southern SW down some. It was pretty close to climbing the coast. Precip gets to about Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 GFS moves closer. Gets frozen into VA/NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 The gfs is very much trending to a storm at least for the se and lower ma. No idea if it will ever actually get there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Other than at onset for northern areas, the GEPS is a rain event for late week. That high is sliding off the coast as the precip comes in. The wave for early next week is there, and verbatim its a glancing blow mainly for eastern areas, and it might be cold enough for frozen as modeled. I’m not overly hopeful but wxusaf had a great point the other day. It’s always good when we can see the other side of a bad pattern before it even sets in. And I’ll add it’s always good when we are tracking, even low level threats, during the bad pattern. When I’ve gone back and read threads from good years like 2014 & 2015...there were dead periods and complaining (that should embarrass us looking back) even in those years. I’m not saying this is going to be a good year. But there are signs the base state isn’t totally awful this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 GFS lets the southern stream escape OTS but it's close to phasing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 You want the interaction between those two pieces to be more favorable. As modeled, the piece marked as the "X" acts as a "kicker" which is why the coastal storm does not climb the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not overly hopeful but wxusaf had a great point the other day. It’s always good when we can see the other side of a bad pattern before it even sets in. And I’ll add it’s always good when we are tracking, even low level threats, during the bad pattern. When I’ve gone back and read threads from good years like 2014 & 2015...there were dead periods and complaining (that should embarrass us looking back) even in those years. I’m not saying this is going to be a good year. But there are signs the base state isn’t totally awful this year. My post was only in response to the discussion of the GEPS depiction for late week/early next week, specifically the post directly above mine. I am pretty optimistic overall about the way things look on the means going forward at this point. The exact SSW impacts shall be interesting to see play out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, LP08 said: Better ridging out west slowed the Southern SW down some. It was pretty close to climbing the coast. Precip gets to about Richmond. Would be nice to see the slower trend continue....so close to a nice event with a transient high to the north as well. As noted above...that ns system diving down would have phased if the ss was just a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Those two energies do phase off the coast on the 5th... if they phase sooner, we get closer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Would be nice to see the slower trend continue....so close to a nice event with a transient high to the north as well. As noted above...that ns system diving down would have phased if the ss was just a bit slower. if they aren't going to phase it would be better if the NS system was just completely out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, SnowLover22 said: if they aren't going to phase it would be better if the NS system was just completely out of the way. Need something to tug and encourage the low to climb the coast even if its not a clean phase....otherwise it's exit stage right. Tho, the NW trend of systems over the past few weeks is something to consider/watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 PARA GFS as a 992 low off of VA Beach. Gets snow into the area. Edit to add: Its all the southern wave as H5 tracks through VA. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Need something to tug and encourage the low to climb the coast even if its not a clean phase....otherwise it's exit stage right. Tho, the NW trend of systems over the past few weeks is something to consider/watch. My guess would be this thing comes further NW without any phase just based on the past several weeks of trends. Wether enough cold air is around is another question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Need something to tug and encourage the low to climb the coast even if its not a clean phase....otherwise it's exit stage right. Tho, the NW trend of systems over the past few weeks is something to consider/watch. I respectfully disagree. The gfs a few days ago did outline a scenario that would work that was just southern wave with no or little NS interaction. You just need the southern wave at H5 to track in the right location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: I respectfully disagree. The gfs a few days ago did outline a scenario that would work that was just southern wave with no or little NS interaction. You just need the southern wave at H5 to track in the right location. Absolutely. I was just discussing that particular run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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