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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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In case anyone is hoping that changing to 1991-2020 for the new climatological baseline will help us get cold anomalies next week and later this winter - the shift won't occur until sometime this spring - May? 

In case anyone is hoping increased cold anomalies due to the new baseline will improve our chances of getting snow ... I have a bridge to sell you

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
That’s not true...sometimes it’s 500 hours 

That's not even cold to boot

Better than warm anomalies.  Note also the extensive cold anomalies in Siberia, which is on top of their already frigid averages at this time of year.  Residents of Verhoyansk might have to ditch the windbreaker and put on a heavy coat.

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28 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

CAD starting to show up .

Gfs for NYD am . Freezing rain totals . Could be a sneaky mix deal for n+w areas 

 

gfs-deterministic-dc-frzr_total-9513200.png

Can’t post Sv maps but cmc looks 10x more impressive. This ice potential may have quietly snuck up on us. Luckily I’m in Philly don’t have to deal with that crap.

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34 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Can’t post Sv maps but cmc looks 10x more impressive. This ice potential may have quietly snuck up on us. Luckily I’m in Philly don’t have to deal with that crap.

CMC keeps me frozen for the duration of the storm (sleet to start then freezing rain).  Too bad CMC is a terrible model.  I do think it bears watching for the far N&W areas for some frozen to start before flipping to rain.

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16 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Grasping at straws, but one of the best looking blocks yet on the op gfs in fantasy land. West based. Pac improvements too

Not seeing that. Step back in pac vs 18z. NAO tries to retrograde to epo at the tail end. So we *maybe* move towards a better PAC at the cost of losing the good Atl side. Chances of having both sides working together are slim this year. Actually its always rather rare...doesn't happen often at all.

 

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

6z keeps a lot of us wedged in for NYD.  Shame it’s not colder or stronger high or something other than cold rain.  Still this event has morphed into a different look from a flooding rain north south cold front.  

If nothing else, hopefully the flooding rain part is dead. It would be ridiculous to have a repeat of Xmas eve again, a week later.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The better h5 looks- esp wrt the PAC- are showing up sooner in time the past few runs. Epic Baffin block with a +PNA and trough progressing east, and not at hour 384!

1610344800-xUy2E2wAHSI.png

0z op didn't agree as much with the 0z ens map above,, but now at 6z it is coming together and much more evident on both. Finally getting nearer in time. Trying to get a link between the nao and pna ridge with a sprinkling of an epo extention bridging across. 

gfs_z500a_nhem_57.png

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

That's 13 days away:whistle: . We got a CAD  threat day 4 and  coastal possible day 7.  

You seem to have that covered. The CAD deal doesn't interest me in the least here lol.

I am still mildly interested in Sun-Mon, although the signal on the GEFS for anything significant/frozen has gotten weaker in recent runs.

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7 hours ago, nj2va said:

CMC keeps me frozen for the duration of the storm (sleet to start then freezing rain).  Too bad CMC is a terrible model.  I do think it bears watching for the far N&W areas for some frozen to start before flipping to rain.

lol... didnt @psuhoffman say two days ago that the models were struggling with this time period and they he wouldnt be surprised to see a shift to a colder look for this storm?

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Mt Holly with just a mention of the early next week "potential".

For Sunday...An upper-level trough gradually lifts out of the Northeast allowing ridging to arrive from the west. This should result in dry but chilly conditions, however may need to watch trailing southern energy with an offshore surface low.

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Mt Holly with just a mention of the early next week "potential".

For Sunday...An upper-level trough gradually lifts out of the Northeast allowing ridging to arrive from the west. This should result in dry but chilly conditions, however may need to watch trailing southern energy with an offshore surface low.

Is this one of those “ne Maryland pummeled” deals? If so I’m shutting the blinds and turning off the internet LOL 

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