CAPE Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Watch the models start to lock-in the nice PAC coupled with the -AO/-NAO but the SWE goes and mucks it up. That would never happen though. Go read Cohen's latest thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 hours ago, Amped said: Ugly wave 1 in the wrong hemisphere. What is "wave 1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, cbmclean said: What is "wave 1"? Wavenumber 1. 1 ridge and 1 trough around a latitude circle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Wavenumber 1. 1 ridge and 1 trough around a latitude circle. Is that unusual? Most of the stuff I read mentions the wavenumber typically goes from 2 - 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Is that unusual? Most of the stuff I read mentions the wavenumber typically goes from 2 - 7. Low wave number patterns are more common in winter, but such a dominant wave 1 is a bit unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Is para going to be the op soon? Its showing a snowstorm for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Is para going to be the op soon? Its showing a snowstorm for us Bah! Go with the worst snow model..you taught us that long ago on alt.NEweather 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ji said: Is para going to be the op soon? Its showing a snowstorm for us No it lost it on 18z run 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 No it lost it on 18z run Last hope down the tubes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No it lost it on 18z run Nothing to see on the 18z GEFS either if we are talking about the Jan 3-4 window. Always was a bit of a long shot, but looking less likely on recent runs. Looks to stay mostly to the SE, and even if it does scrape, there isn't much cold air around until after it moves off, so probably just some showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No it lost it on 18z run Last hope down the tubes Dude we are going to be set after the SSWE has completed. Just be patient. Our time is coming! Looking like the very end of Jan into Feb could rock. Maybe. If the daughter vortices end up in the right spots. Otherwise, probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Dude we are going to be set after the SSWE has completed. I keep seeing tweets posted here from breathless stratosphere junkies. What is the actual status? Is it in process now? Is it imminent? is it all just a figment of their imaginations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, cbmclean said: I keep seeing tweets posted here from breathless stratosphere junkies. What is the actual status? Is it in process now? Is it imminent? is it all just a figment of their imaginations? It is scheduled to get underway the first few days in Jan. Check out the Strat geeks on twitter for more info. Judah Cohen seems to be a good place to start, since he is actually Doctor Polar Vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Para didn’t really lose it, it was just rain instead lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Dude we are going to be set after the SSWE has completed. Just be patient. Our time is coming! Looking like the very end of Jan into Feb could rock. Maybe. If the daughter vortices end up in the right spots. Otherwise, probably not. It better couple with the trop this time. I’m reading hints the heat flux leading to this SSW might have derailed the pattern progression guidance was seeing a week ago similar to what happened in Jan 2019. I don’t know enough to say but that would be the $&@& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: a week ago similar to what happened in Jan 2019 So is there a consensus that that is what happened in 2019? I have heard that theory discussed, but as with so much strat stuff, there is so few definite conclusions that I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: It better couple with the trop this time. I’m reading hints the heat flux leading to this SSW might have derailed the pattern progression guidance was seeing a week ago similar to what happened in Jan 2019. I don’t know enough to say but that would be the $&@& Yeah I don't know either. Seems the end result will be very conducive for HL blocking, but at least according to Cohen, until the process completes, the eastern US will be mild- for at least 2 weeks. So I guess he is telling us to close the blinds until the third week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: Dude we are going to be set after the SSWE has completed. Just be patient. Our time is coming! Looking like the very end of Jan into Feb could rock. Maybe. If the daughter vortices end up in the right spots. Otherwise, probably not. Now in my brain...I have a picture of a big hammer smashing a huge glob of jello...and when it does, the jello splits...but how the pieces of the jello separate is kinda random. Is that kinda how it is with the strat warming and the vortex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now in my brain...I have a picture of a big hammer smashing a huge glob of jello...and when it does, the jello splits...but how the pieces of the jello separate is kinda random. Is that kinda how it is with the strat warming and the vortex? yeah...kinda 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: So is there a consensus that that is what happened in 2019? I have heard that theory discussed, but as with so much strat stuff, there is so few definite conclusions that I see. Many think that. Similar to how in the fall several years back that insane remnant west pac tropical slammed into Alaska and brought an absurd cold spell in November and that was basically it for the winter. The remainder of that winter was fairly mild although I think snow wise it was not awful. I cannot recall year that was but ensembles Day 10-16 were very optimistic for a pattern change til that Alaskan situation too place. It seems to an extent an SSW always screws someone because ultimately the process impacts pattern progression to a degree in the whole hemisphere north of 35N. The January 2012 SSW no question screwed NOAM. Models seemed to be hinting a -NAO would develop but the SSW ultimately shifted the pattern to one that favored Europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: yeah...kinda To clarify my analogy, Strat warming=hammer Jello=vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 49 minutes ago, CAPE said: Dude we are going to be set after the SSWE has completed. Just be patient. Our time is coming! Looking like the very end of Jan into Feb could rock. Maybe. If the daughter vortices end up in the right spots. Otherwise, probably not. We had daughter triplets wrt PV last year and still failed. We do fail so damn well it almost feels like winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 32 minutes ago, cbmclean said: So is there a consensus that that is what happened in 2019? I have heard that theory discussed, but as with so much strat stuff, there is so few definite conclusions that I see. There is no way to say conclusively because there are so many variables and no way to isolate them. But there has been a correlation between the pre cursor heat flux to a SSW and a warm eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: It's still there on Pivotal lol. Just weaker and warmer. So the tracking resumes until its goneeeeeee. I was just ribbing him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 34 minutes ago, cbmclean said: So is there a consensus that that is what happened in 2019? I have heard that theory discussed, but as with so much strat stuff, there is so few definite conclusions that I see. With the strat stuff, I side with Tom (isotherm) in that it is overly discussed given there is little scientific correlation wrt how it works and affects real weather at the surface on a hemispheric scale. Neither he nor I are saying it is garbage as the only way to learn is to study it. But relying so much on a variable that most of the pros admittedly still don't understand is not the preferred way to forecast in the long range. It is mostly used as a straw for grasping at this point in time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 40 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah I don't know either. Seems the end result will be very conducive for HL blocking, but at least according to Cohen, until the process completes, the eastern US will be mild- for at least 2 weeks. So I guess he is telling us to close the blinds until the third week of January. Noted, ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 36 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah I don't know either. Seems the end result will be very conducive for HL blocking, but at least according to Cohen, until the process completes, the eastern US will be mild- for at least 2 weeks. So I guess he is telling us to close the blinds until the third week of January. Lot of moving parts. I do think there may be something to this theory. It’s not just Cohen saying it. But it’s also odd that I can remember 4 times recently that a SSW occurred and right before the pattern got suddenly derailed by a huge ridge in the east that originated from the tropical pacific. What just happened this week is eerily similar to what happened in January 2019. What happens after depends though. I’ve read trop coupling is more likely in years with a weak TPV to start so that’s on our side. The last time we had a SSW that coupled in 2018 it initially hurt the progression in Feb (we wasted a strong cold MJO phase wave but then it set up a pretty awesome pattern in March. If we get a similar progression only 5-6 weeks earlier this time...I could live with that! Btw I feel like the end of the 18z gefs needs angel choir music or something. Went all GEPS. Been trending this way for a while but good to see the progression staying locked in time and not getting kicked YET. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: With the strat stuff, I side with Tom (isotherm) in that it is overly discussed given there is little scientific correlation wrt how it works and affects real weather at the surface on a hemispheric scale. Neither he nor I are saying it is garbage as the only way to learn is to study it. But relying so much on a variable that most of the pros admittedly still don't understand is not the preferred way to forecast in the long range. It is mostly used as a straw for grasping at this point in time. They are very unpredictable AND they don’t always couple with the TPV. But when they do it definitely has an effect on the AO. But it’s hard to use something we have such little predictability of usefully for a forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Omg cold anomalies...!!! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 @psuhoffman that’s a nice look. Always a good thing if you can see the end of the bad pattern before it starts. Hopefully that look holds and doesn’t get can kicked. I have no feel for how the SSW might disrupt things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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