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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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Water temp issue can be a bit tricky. During early summer, the thermocline is shallow, so it is fairly easy to upwell cold water. Due to Ekman transport a sea breeze can provide swells, but also move warm water offshore and pull cold water to the surface. Later in the summer, the warm layer is thicker and more difficult to upwell cold water. Where I live in Cape May, one must be careful looking at water temps in the spring and fall due to strong influences from the shallow Delaware Bay and adjacent marshes. For example, in the fall, after a cold night, if water temps are sampled in the morning during low tide, you would get an artificially low temp. Opposite holds in spring. Our latest temp is 41. That’s a bit influenced by 2 cold nights in a row. 

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7 minutes ago, Redmorninglight said:

Water temp issue can be a bit tricky. During early summer, the thermocline is shallow, so it is fairly easy to upwell cold water. Due to Ekman transport a sea breeze can provide swells, but also move warm water offshore and pull cold water to the surface. Later in the summer, the warm layer is thicker and more difficult to upwell cold water. Where I live in Cape May, one must be careful looking at water temps in the spring and fall due to strong influences from the shallow Delaware Bay and adjacent marshes. For example, in the fall, after a cold night, if water temps are sampled in the morning during low tide, you would get an artificially low temp. Opposite holds in spring. Our latest temp is 41. That’s a bit influenced by 2 cold nights in a row. 

Thanks :) thats what i wanted to say but I dont know as much as you do!  

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2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

The number of days IMBY with rain hasn’t changed much- it’s that every system that comes through is so juiced up. What used to be a 0.37” storm is now a 2” storm, etc. ENSO seems to have no bearing on the outcome anymore.

locally downtown i've recorded more than 65" of total precip this year - it's crazy.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

The main indices look decent. Seems like it should only be a matter of time until we see better looks. 
 

The MJO however ... they should just remove 6,7,8,1 from the phase diagram

Love that look at day 15. The massive Baffin Island block vs the One-eyed pig GOA vortex. What a cage match.

Hopefully the suggestion of a PNA ridge is real. That would probably tilt things more in our favor.

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13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Love that look at day 15. The massive Baffin Island block vs the One-eyed pig GOA vortex. What a cage match.

Hopefully the suggestion of a PNA ridge is real. That would probably tilt things more in our favor.

Its something anyway. But aren't we going backwards again? Went from great day 7 looks, to great day 10 looks, to great day 15 looks. Fingers crossed anywho.

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13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Love that look at day 15. The massive Baffin Island block vs the One-eyed pig GOA vortex. What a cage match.

Hopefully the suggestion of a PNA ridge is real. That would probably tilt things more in our favor.

We need that vortex to back off some. Ideally if it backs off into the WPO it redirects that Nina ridge into the pna domain and western Canada. Absent that it’s even better if it just goes away. That’s not perfect but if...big if..we have a -AO/NAO we have overcome that pac ridge before. But we’ve never overcome both a pac ridge AND AK vortex. That’s just too much for any other factor to fix. 

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Its something anyway. But aren't we going backwards again? Went from great day 7 looks, to great day 10 looks, to great day 15 looks. Fingers crossed anywho.

Well I don't really "love" that look in the context of thinking its going to be great for snow chances here. It might work out because of climo, but we would generally have the same issues with lack of cold. Having a bit of ridging out west in combination with a west-based block should get us a better storm track at least.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We need that vortex to back off some. Ideally if it backs off into the WPO it redirects that Nina ridge into the pna domain and western Canada. Absent that it’s even better if it just goes away. That’s not perfect but if...big if..we have a -AO/NAO we have overcome that pac ridge before. But we’ve never overcome both a pac ridge AND AK vortex. That’s just too much for any other factor to fix. 

Extended GEFS. Its a bit of "pick your poison", but I would definitely roll the dice with this look, even if there might be a tendency for a SER to pop at times- and the blocking should suppress that.

1611014400-lwq4nNwiKf8.png

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21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Extended GEFS. Its a bit of "pick your poison", but I would definitely roll the dice with this look, even if there might be a tendency for a SER to pop at times- and the blocking should suppress that.

1611014400-lwq4nNwiKf8.png

Yea that’s workable.  The pac was ok for most of Dec...and we had a legit threat or two...had that held into mid winter with a -AO we were looking good. Unfortunately the pac looks to have settled into a more Nina base state now. 

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38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea that’s workable.  The pac was ok for most of Dec...and we had a legit threat or two...had that held into mid winter with a -AO we were looking good. Unfortunately the pac looks to have settled into a more Nina base state now. 

The Ural blocking has diminished by hour 576 ( accept at own risk )  which was responsible for the East Asian Mountain torque. 

Hopefully models go to a more robust + PNA , and post the SSWE we may get the vortex to settle further South in time.  May seed areas to our NW with a very cold air mass by the third week of Jan. 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Ji said:

Lord have mercy on us in this 2021 and please let us not waste this block

 

gfs_z500a_namer_41.png

From there is we can get the western trough to split and the vortex to pull back allowing that energy out west to slide under the block that can go somewhere good. If the whole trough keeps digging west....ehh

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I gotta give it to this forum, there are a lot of polyannas prognosticating this way or that...if, X winds up here and Y does this and it's a Thursday and we close one eye then a HECS can happen.  Sorry, it ain't happening.  Face it we aren't getting any major snow this year. In fact, the sun is out full force today and I can already tell its angle is increasing.  Countdown til spring has commenced.... 

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