January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

[cbmclean]

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Funny you say that...teaching is my actual profession...just not weather. I teach Constitutional Law, Economics, and Government.  If I ever did go back and finish my Meteorology degree my dream job would be teaching a meteorology course.  I wouldn’t mind working on a pacific patterns discussion. What exactly are you looking for?  What works wrt snow chances?   One issue is I’m not sure what historical analogs still work. I’ve noticed a few times recently a look that in the 50s-90s produced a colder snowy outcome not work wrt temps in recent years. If you narrow the examples to only recent years you get more relevant examples but you get too small a set of snowstorms to draw much significance wrt how likely a pattern is to replicate that result. 

I have lurked here for several years.  The SE is obviously my home forum but I come here because the analysis is superior and as far as the hemispheric pattern, many of the factors that affect us are the same.  Anyway, I have read many of your previous posts about teaching and I have been wondering how remote learning was working for your students.  I know this should be in the banter thread but since it came up here and there wasn't much else going on I didn't feel it was too much a sin to ask the question here. 

[nw baltimore wx]

25 minutes ago, nj2va said:

18z GFS para has the coastal next weekend.  Digital snow!

Disappointing qpf totals. 

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Thought the GFS para was supposed to go operational in Sept 2020?  What is the timeline now?  

February? 

[Heisy]

There’s two long shots to get snow in the next week.

1) we get a 12z ukmet scenario where the initial cutter drags and disconnects its energy, cold push allows hp to build in and another low forms on the frontal boundary.

2) para gfs scenario with a strong second wave

Not likely, but not impossible I guess. Both scenarios involve perfect spacing and timing, but don’t 90% of our snowstorms? I’m all in for a fun 00z

[frd]

Some feel the opposite of this view.  Yet, as mentioned, we may still get some good events. 

As griteater posted earlier, mid to late Jan for an improved Pac. That seems to be the trend during the last couple of days.

Anxious to see if the modeling does a big change for the better in the next several days, as it possibly could latch on to the time period and evolution of the SSWE. Of course the outcomes doesn't have to be one of colder, however, I am hoping for improved looks in the PNA domain. 

David Gold

 

@dgoldwx2112

 

Replying to

@antmasiello

I think in the winter mean the tropical heat source will be situated well west of where it typically aids in setting up the kind of pattern that eastern winter weenies love. That of course doesn’t preclude some good events.

 

5:05 PM · Dec 26, 2020

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Oh i see pivotalwx has the para gfs off runs 

And Stormvista 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

Maybe you know this but essentially we want a +PNA and a -EPO.  The lower heights southwest of Alaska is the -EPO.  The higher heights in western Canada and US is the +PNA. This plot shows a great pacific pattern.  Even though the Atlantic looks terrible, we did really well.
 

 

That’s the same pattern more or less as 93-94 though I believe 93-94 the negative heights by Greenland didn’t extend over the pole so we had somewhat of a phony or weak -AO most of the winter.  That winter wasn’t particularly good in the MA though.  Had the NAO been negative maybe it would have been different but as DT has pointed out before the 93-94 and 14-15 predominant winter patterns it’s next to impossible to have a -NAO 

[pazzo83]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That’s the same pattern more or less as 93-94 though I believe 93-94 the negative heights by Greenland didn’t extend over the pole so we had somewhat of a phony or weak -AO most of the winter.  That winter wasn’t particularly good in the MA though.  Had the NAO been negative maybe it would have been different but as DT has pointed out before the 93-94 and 14-15 predominant winter patterns it’s next to impossible to have a -NAO 

this is taking me back to late elementary school days but I remember some sort of coastal storm in March '94 where at least western areas got a lot of snow (we got around 20" in the Shen Valley).

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

this is taking me back to late elementary school days but I remember some sort of coastal storm in March '94 where at least western areas got a lot of snow (we got around 20" in the Shen Valley).

3/4-94 I think.  Big elevation snow event and interior event while coast got rain.  The pattern more or less went 2011 on the northeast and MA after 2-20 in 1994 though it did get cold again for a week or two from 3/15-3/30 but overall I always point to 94 04 and 11 as being years where pretty much after early to mid February winter ended.  In 04 there was a return again in mid to late March much like 94.  2011 it truly ended and never came back  

[BristowWx]

Quite a different look on the GFS for NYD timeframe.  Clicking back there are some pronounced changes.  

[BristowWx]

Yeah the result is still the same but with 6 days to go..well we will see

[peribonca]

Might be setting the stage for some CAD to develop with that high pressure to the north on New Year's.  Interesting evolution

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs digging energy to almost Mexico ( Brownsville to be exact )at hr 114  with lower heights north of New York then past several runs . Looks like a mix Pa north 

That was a big enough change to make me think there are more changes in the future 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

That was a big enough change to make me think there are more changes in the future 

Looks doable if it’s  a “low forming to the south along a stalled out front with cad building in” type of a situation.

[BristowWx]

Just now, 87storms said:

Looks doable if it’s  a “low forming to the south along a stalled out front with cad building in” type of a situation.

Maybe but that high in the Midwest is just too weak.  1040 could be a game changer. But it’s not it’s 1025

[WinterWxLuvr]

Nothing like a Bermuda high in January 

[BristowWx]

10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like the Canadian is leaving more energy behind as well thru 90

Now it’s the SE ridge that mucking things up...another special guest in The FUMA Show...check your local listings 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Without that Bermuda high that’s a really good snowstorm on the gfs

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Now it’s the SE ridge that mucking things up...another special guest in The FUMA Show...check your local listings 

That show has great ratings 

[BristowWx]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Without that Bermuda high that’s a really good snowstorm on the gfs

Well we know that’s not moving...like Jabba pulling on Leia...not going anywhere fast

[BristowWx]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Remember...Leia is a Skywalker too

Ah yes.  So there is a chance..a new hope for this event.  

[SnowDreamer]

I have nightmares about WARs like that... Not again.

[yoda]

37 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Only 24 hr maps but Ukie tries to build hp to the north at hr 120 similar to 12z . Not enough but still time for improvements. 

More like a severe weather threat on the 00z UKIE for the LWX CWA IMO at 138/144 -- 60-70 kts bulk shear and temps 65-70 degrees at 00z THUR

[BristowWx]

Today’s 6zGFS brought to you by your friends at SER inc....”When you think digital snow removal think SER!”

[frd]

Crazy look here with the Pac and the height distribution from Greenland to the US SE Coast.  A week beyond this date is when things might start shifting. On a unrelated note, Ocean temp off Southern New Jersey according to Magic Seaweed is 55 degrees F. If correct rather mild for this time of year. 

 

[dailylurker]

29 minutes ago, frd said:

Crazy look here with the Pac and the height distribution from Greenland to the US SE Coast.  A week beyond this date is when things might start shifting. On a unrelated note, Ocean temp off Southern New Jersey according to Magic Seaweed is 55 degrees F. If correct rather mild for this time of year. 

 

If true then there's seriously something scary going on. I've been surfing in Cape May, NJ in July and the water temp was 55. I'm starting to believe in rapid climate change. Oh look.. another 10 year flood on the way. I've had about 6 once a decade floods this year. Probably the same last year. 

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Today’s 6zGFS brought to you by your friends at SER inc....”When you think digital snow removal think SER!”

The main reason we are seeing east coast/WAR on the models is because  a lot of energy is breaking off of the main vortex, dumping out west, and amplifying. Ofc it is also loading our nearby source region for cold, which has been a problem so far. If that vortex breaks down, then we play with fire as the flat Pac ridge will likely expand/strengthen, and we may end up with a mean trough out west anyway, and an increased likelihood of a SER. Ideally we get the Pac ridge displaced further NE towards AK, and build heights into the EPO domain. Fwiw, the extended GEFS does this around mid month, but the main Pac ridge is centered a bit too far west, so it  has the trough mostly in the western US and a tendency for SER, but it doesn't look like it would be a fixture. The blocking is there, and more west based, so that would help. The pattern continues to look active, and despite the issues with the Pacific, there will be chances. Hopefully the end result doesn't resemble last winter lol.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

If true then there's seriously something scary going on. I've been surfing in Cape May, NJ in July and the water temp was 55. I'm starting to believe in rapid climate change. Oh look.. another 10 year flood on the way. I've had about 6 once a decade floods this year. Probably the same last year. 

The number of days IMBY with rain hasn’t changed much- it’s that every system that comes through is so juiced up. What used to be a 0.37” storm is now a 2” storm, etc. ENSO seems to have no bearing on the outcome anymore.

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

The number of days IMBY with rain hasn’t changed much- it’s that every system that comes through is so juiced up. What used to be a 0.37” storm is now a 2” storm, etc. ENSO seems to have no bearing on the outcome anymore.

Been like that here the past 6 months in particular, but I don't know what exactly to attribute it to. SE parts of our region have definitely been slammed this year. It has always been more hit or miss with events here, especially rain during the summer, and it may very well go back to that tendency next year.

eta- can we get this tendency at least once when there is some cold air in place?

[40westwx]

30 minutes ago, REH said:

https://seatemperature.info/jersey-shore-water-temperature.html
this site says it’s 47 degrees currently. Average for January is 43 degrees so I wouldn’t say it’s abnormally warm at the moment 

The water temps can vary up to 10 degrees day to day depending on currents and upwelling on the east coast.  I can't tell you how many times I have been out one day before a storm to catch a big swell and the water was toasty and then the next I needed a wet suit.

That same site shows this variability in min/ max tables...

 

[40westwx]

9 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 2011 it truly ended and never came back  

I don't know about up there but according to this website:

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf

The last 10 years at BWI have had the snowiest Marches in the last 50 years.