Maestrobjwa Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: This winter seems puzzling. Last winter we knew we were fooked like a prison party for new guests...but we saw it coming...this year seems more uncertain and could go either way. Memorable or forgettable. Kinda where I'm at...in my mind this winter is literally up in the air at the moment, lol Perhaps this may tell us about where we are with our snow climo in general...(which is slightly nerve-wracking) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: This winter seems puzzling. Last winter we knew we were fooked like a prison party for new guests...but we saw it coming...this year seems more uncertain and could go either way. Memorable or forgettable. I am still pretty optimistic. And i have seen 14 flakes. Yesterday. I counted them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 26 minutes ago, REH said: No but he is missed here. I post at another forum where showmethesnow posts. So great to read his morning thoughts again. Truly a great poster. I can understand with a certain poster or two here why they left. He is but he didn’t come in here and make shit posts and pick fights. Whatever issues he had are not the same ones you are having. You’re intentionally being antagonistic then making a “why is everyone picking on me” defense. That’s lame. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Where's Ji? I need to know if HH GFS is a disaster. Looks like we are going for the trifecta on the 9th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Man if you think people are panicking here...check out the NE subforum. Probably bad news for us when they are melting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Man if you think people are panicking here...check out the NE subforum. Probably bad news for us when they are melting. They got our old climo and sometimes you could say it was worse not knowing the outcome. Not only this but one must contend with a colder rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Where's Ji? I need to know if HH GFS is a disaster. Looks like we are going for the trifecta on the 9th. I mean we pretty much know the next 2 weeks is probably lost. Maybe we get lucky but...the gfs does get the pac right by day 14 and the high latitudes are still very workable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 The HH GFS shoots the would-be post-NYE coastal out to sea. Then nothing until epic cold front part III on day 13. Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 The Pac is what it is and a strong signal of change just isnt there right now. Griteater's most recent post regarding the polar move of the pac jet ext dampens the hope for a resulting +PNA in the near future. Hopefully we can get some transient episodes... The op gfs, though a disaster does develop a decent PNA ridge post D12 and has been for the last several runs. A little reassuring that this fits well with the hints from its own ens. So many systems in the pipeline seems to be the theme...just a transient ridge could be all we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I mean we pretty much know the next 2 weeks is probably lost. Maybe we get lucky but...the gfs does get the pac right by day 14 and the high latitudes are still very workable. Appreciate being straight shooter this year without same long essays over and over. Don’t let them suck you into telling us 500000 different ways this will suck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I mean we pretty much know the next 2 weeks is probably lost. Maybe we get lucky but...the gfs does get the pac right by day 14 and the high latitudes are still very workable. I am just having a bit of fun. I do most of my "productive" posts in the early AM. I am down with all of these general ideas and have been for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: Appreciate being straight shooter this year without same long essays over and over. Don’t let them suck you into telling us 500000 different ways this will suck. Who is "them"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 The GFS doesnt look horrible at the end of the run. West coast low closer to the Aleutians. Still an east based block. But that look is better in the Pac. Of course it is way out there in GFS lala land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 I wouldn't give up on the first week of January. H5 looked better on the 18z. Need to get the shortwave neutral further west. Something to watch atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: The GFS doesnt look horrible at the end of the run. West coast low closer to the Aleutians. Still an east based block. But that look is better in the Pac. Of course it is way out there in GFS lala land. I wouldn't worry too much about the end of an op run. Recent GEFS runs have been consistently depicting a developing west based block beyond day 10, as has the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Where is the cold going to come from. The arctic is on fire. that cold in Asia is locked with a ridge bridge. We would need a +NAO actually with an epo ridge to access that. ETA; but that would dump it too far west and then we would need the NAO to flip again and...just forget it. That’s a pipe dream. But we need the thermal profile to cool some over N America somehow. You seem to have a passion for teaching. If you feel so inclined I would love to see one of your teaching posts about the Pacific patterns and their impact on the eastern CONUS. You touched on it somewhat last year in the Snow Climo thread but it was more in the context of the incredibly crappy pattern that was then upcoming. Are there any particular pattern stretches (good or bad) that it would be instructive for me to go back and look at the 500 MB anomalies on the NCEP tool? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 54 minutes ago, CAPE said: I wouldn't worry too much about the end of an op run. Recent GEFS runs have been consistently depicting a developing west based block beyond day 10, as has the EPS. Are you bitterly pointing the fact that the good look is perpetually 10+ days away? Or are you seriously pointing to this a potential source for optimism (or at least muted pessimism). Sorry but its hard to tell without voice inflection or body language. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 hours ago, Chris78 said: I think patience is the key word. Normally blocks give us the goods after there well established and starting to break down or reload. When we have high latitude blocking, northern Canada is going to be "relatively warm". The intrinsic state is lower heights in the HL regions, and the cold tends to stay there. We need that to be inverted to get persistent cold down here in the midlatitudes...BUT, the primary issue so far is the strong, sustained NE Pac vortex pumping warm Pac air into our nearby source region for cold. So the HL blocking is not really the issue(although the NA ridge has been positioned too far east so far)- rather there is simply a lack of cold air to drive far enough southward, and the baroclinic zone ends up further NW. That zone represents a thermal gradient, or zone of conflict, and is where low pressure will develop/track along the eastern side of a trough. Unfortunately that has been generally west of our area so far this early winter. It remains to be seen if that can shift further SE as we move forward. A combo of relaxation of the NE PAC trough (colder in the Yukon)and a continuation of the negative AO plus more of a west based -NAO would allow for some favorable outcomes as we head into our best snow climo period. So yeah, patience lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 17 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Are you bitterly pointing the fact that the good look is perpetually 10+ days away? Or are you seriously pointing to this a potential source for optimism (or at least muted pessimism). Sorry but its hard to tell without voice inflection or body language. lol Read my latest post. Maybe that will help answer your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 24 minutes ago, cbmclean said: You seem to have a passion for teaching. If you feel so inclined I would love to see one of your teaching posts about the Pacific patterns and their impact on the eastern CONUS. You touched on it somewhat last year in the Snow Climo thread but it was more in the context of the incredibly crappy pattern that was then upcoming. Are there any particular pattern stretches (good or bad) that it would be instructive for me to go back and look at the 500 MB anomalies on the NCEP tool? Funny you say that...teaching is my actual profession...just not weather. I teach Constitutional Law, Economics, and Government. If I ever did go back and finish my Meteorology degree my dream job would be teaching a meteorology course. I wouldn’t mind working on a pacific patterns discussion. What exactly are you looking for? What works wrt snow chances? One issue is I’m not sure what historical analogs still work. I’ve noticed a few times recently a look that in the 50s-90s produced a colder snowy outcome not work wrt temps in recent years. If you narrow the examples to only recent years you get more relevant examples but you get too small a set of snowstorms to draw much significance wrt how likely a pattern is to replicate that result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 18z GFS para has the coastal next weekend. Digital snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z GFS para has the coastal next weekend. Digital snow! Where do you get the para for non 0z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: You seem to have a passion for teaching. If you feel so inclined I would love to see one of your teaching posts about the Pacific patterns and their impact on the eastern CONUS. You touched on it somewhat last year in the Snow Climo thread but it was more in the context of the incredibly crappy pattern that was then upcoming. Are there any particular pattern stretches (good or bad) that it would be instructive for me to go back and look at the 500 MB anomalies on the NCEP tool? Maybe you know this but essentially we want a +PNA and a -EPO. The lower heights southwest of Alaska is the -EPO. The higher heights in western Canada and US is the +PNA. This plot shows a great pacific pattern. Even though the Atlantic looks terrible, we did really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Where do you get the para for non 0z runs? Curious myself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Oh i see pivotalwx has the para gfs off runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Interesting. Just trying to find ways we could snow. Para gfs winds up the cutter, but has enough energy with follow up wave it develops a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z GFS para has the coastal next weekend. Digital snow! That's awesome! I posted a few hours ago the h5 from the op GFS 18z. To my eyes it showed some opportunity. Glad to hear the Para has it. That's probably our best shot over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: That's awesome! I posted a few hours ago the h5 from the op GFS 18z. To my eyes it showed some opportunity. Glad to hear the Para has it. That's probably our best shot over the next few weeks. Yep, agreed. I wouldn’t sleep on that chance yet...definitely shows the most opportunity over the next week (which doesn’t say much ). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Funny you say that...teaching is my actual profession...just not weather. I teach Constitutional Law, Economics, and Government. If I ever did go back and finish my Meteorology degree my dream job would be teaching a meteorology course. I wouldn’t mind working on a pacific patterns discussion. What exactly are you looking for? What works wrt snow chances? One issue is I’m not sure what historical analogs still work. I’ve noticed a few times recently a look that in the 50s-90s produced a colder snowy outcome not work wrt temps in recent years. If you narrow the examples to only recent years you get more relevant examples but you get too small a set of snowstorms to draw much significance wrt how likely a pattern is to replicate that result. I am most directly interested in cold in and of itself. I love snow but I have lived in North Carolina all of my life so I have had to learn to be satisfied with a sloppy 2 inches a year if I am lucky. So I love cold and dry almost as much as snow (I had a good Christmas). That being said I am interested in understanding if there are multiple different ways to succeed or fail with regards to cold anomalies in the eastern CONUS. For example, I know that there are at least two distinguishable Pacific doom patterns which suck for cold in the east. One is the Alaska vortex. Another is the massive Aleutians ridge. Are there multiple distinguishable "good" Pacific patterns as well, or are they all really variations on the theme of a +EPO ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Thought the GFS para was supposed to go operational in Sept 2020? What is the timeline now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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