January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

If there is an EPO ridge, what is the mechanism for the warm air.

Where is the cold going to come from. The arctic is on fire. 
that cold in Asia is locked with a ridge bridge. We would need a +NAO actually with an epo ridge to access that. 
ETA; but that would dump it too far west and then we would need the NAO to flip again and...just forget it. That’s a pipe dream. But we need the thermal profile to cool some over N America somehow. 

[aldie 22]

11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

In 10-14 days we will know better how the last 10-14 days will have looked

FYP

[frd]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Where is the cold going to come from. The arctic is on fire. 
that cold in Asia is locked with a ridge bridge. We would need a +NAO actually with an epo ridge to access that. 

All and all we are in trouble. Blocks mean little, folks neglect temps.   This winter the new player is source region, damn I missed that one. 

[Vice-Regent]

3 minutes ago, REH said:

Here are the actual temps from the same time period your anomaly map is from. Same GEPS, same run. This will Look completely different come January 11th but that is cold enough to snow. People see those reds and think we are talking 50’s and 60’s. We aren’t 

You are not factoring in airmass moderation. This is a prime concern in the sub-tropics when airmasses need a large sub-polar cold reservoir to draw from over multiple days as they moderate below 45N.

Complicated further by expansive warm sectors and land-ocean contrast when the storms actually come. It's why we have been stuck in cutter hell since Mid December.

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, frd said:

All and all we are in trouble. Blocks mean little, folks neglect temps.   This winter the new player is source region, damn I missed that one. 

Yea but this is missing an even bigger picture. Central Asia is always cold. It’s high latitude land locked. But how often are we realistically going to have that as our source region. It’s on the other side of the globe...literally!!!  That’s rarely our source region. And honestly 50% of the time when it is that’s not a good snowstorm look. A huge arse full lat EPO ridge with a +NAO is a cold dry look and we typically warm when a wave approaches. We would either need that followed by a quick NAO flip or a perfectly positioned positively tilted epo ridge to get a progressive wave pattern. That’s going to be super rare.  If the Yukon doesn’t work as a source region we’re going to be pretty fooked most of the time. That sounds way too much like the people in the southeast forum who need to pray the stars align while a rare white elk and a unicorn stroll by every 5 years to have a shot at significant snow!  

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, REH said:

Here are the actual temps from the same time period your anomaly map is from. Same GEPS, same run. This will Look completely different come January 11th but that is cold enough to snow. People see those reds and think we are talking 50’s and 60’s. We aren’t 

That’s exactly what Cape and I said like 30 mins ago.  Again you’re taking things out of context. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s rarely our source region. And honestly 50% of the time when it is that’s not a good snowstorm look. A huge arse full lat EPO ridge with a +NAO is a cold dry look and we typically warm when a wave approaches. We would either need that followed by a quick NAO flip or a perfectly positioned positively tilted epo ridge to get a progressive wave pattern. That’s going to be super rare.  If the Yukon doesn’t work as a source region we’re going to be pretty fooked most of the time. That sounds way too much like the people in the southeast forum who need to pray the stars align while a rare white elk and a unicorn stroll by every 5 years to have a shot at significant snow!  

Okay, so the Yukon is our main source region of cold? Now how does that work? (is that related to what you were saying with your map earlier?)

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s exactly what Cape and I said like 30 mins ago.  Again you’re taking things out of context. 

For January...that temp profile is a dog taking steamer on a cold day...and some how I also never considered Canada being mild.  All the AO is doing is keeping us seasonally cool.  

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

I already put the troll on ignore. He might be the fastest to ever make it to my ignore list. 

Good call

[Chris78]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Okay, so the Yukon is our main source region of cold? Now how does that work? (is that related to what you were saying with your map earlier?)

I think patience is the key word. Normally blocks give us the goods after there well established  and starting to break down or reload. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, REH said:

My apologies then. I just think we put too much thought into temp maps, even ensemble guidance, that far out in time. Some people punting winter ( not you or cape ) because they see a map all colored in red and freak out. The winter of 2009-2010 will Probably never walk through the door again but Canada was incredible warm that winter also. Looks can be deceiving sometimes 

Now see that there...was gonna be my next question. See, based on that winter, I thought if it was warm up there it would be cold down here...but I'm guessing it's not that simple? (is anything about winter simple? Lol)

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Chris78 said:

I think patience is the key word. Normally blocks give us the goods after there well established  and starting to break down or reload. 

Not sure that answered my question, though lol

[frd]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but this is missing an even bigger picture. Central Asia is always cold. It’s high latitude land locked. But how often are we realistically going to have that as our source region. It’s on the other side of the globe...literally!!!  That’s rarely our source region. And honestly 50% of the time when it is that’s not a good snowstorm look. A huge arse full lat EPO ridge with a +NAO is a cold dry look and we typically warm when a wave approaches. We would either need that followed by a quick NAO flip or a perfectly positioned positively tilted epo ridge to get a progressive wave pattern. That’s going to be super rare.  If the Yukon doesn’t work as a source region we’re going to be pretty fooked most of the time. That sounds way too much like the people in the southeast forum who need to pray the stars align while a rare white elk and a unicorn stroll by every 5 years to have a shot at significant snow!  

Agreed, wondering if in the end our savings grace will be the very thing that was an obstacle. Hopefully we score when the Pac improves and we take advantage of the active pattern.    

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, REH said:

My apologies then. I just think we put too much thought into temp maps, even ensemble guidance, that far out in time. Some people punting winter ( not you or cape ) because they see a map all colored in red and freak out. The winter of 2009-2010 will Probably never walk through the door again but Canada was incredible warm that winter also. Looks can be deceiving sometimes 

Some people do that every year. It’s a game. And you cherry picked the coldest part of the day on that temp plot. The 18z temps look pretty ugly. But again...we’re talking about how it’s sad if that pattern only produces above normal temps. That’s related but not the same as snow chances. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, REH said:

Seasonably cool will work in January for possible snow. If you are a pack queen it isn’t great but not sure pack queens outside the mountains south of NY state should exist. 

I agree it will ...but gives very little wiggle room for error.  Everything would have to line up.  And CAD would be be just cold not silly cold...easy to warm if you start at 30.  Often we need silly cold for silly outcomes.   

[WinterWxLuvr]

Probably if we could keep Pacific air out of Canada it would cool on its own. Yeah a polar dump of air would help but I don’t think we need that just to get snow here.

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Some people do that every year. It’s a game. And you cherry picked the coldest part of the day on that temp plot. The 18z temps look pretty ugly. But again...we’re talking about how it’s sad if that pattern only produces above normal temps. That’s related but not the same as snow chances. 

A guess maybe we need a thread for noob etiquette. Most know better than to barge in and assume we have all been just flailing around in here for years and years waiting to be educated by some wise ass.

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Okay, so the Yukon is our main source region of cold? Now how does that work? (is that related to what you were saying with your map earlier?)

It’s just an example. Yukon, NW Territories, Nanavut...point is northern Canada has to work as a source region most of the time. An extended period of unimpeded cross polar flow to tap Siberia is too rare to rely on for our snow chances. Unless we want those chances to be like once every few years. 

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, REH said:

2009-2010 wasn’t cold at all in these parts. Not sure what the final numbers were for that winter but it wasn’t cold. It was cold when it counted though. 

2010 is probably the goal here.  We had pac help in Dec but the second round that year was all high latitude driven overcoming a crap pac. But it was PERFECT blocking so that’s living on the edge. But also...it was 11 years ago. We are warming. And a lot of those storms were borderline. Only the late Jan one was cold. All the others after if you add a few degrees we are in trouble.  And the temps in Canada that Jan were warm but not as warm as now!  Probably helped that year the pac wasn’t puke early and allowed a cold pool to build. Then the Atlantic was able to prevent it from being completely obliterated later. 

Either way that temp profile in NW Canada is way better then now! 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A guess maybe we need a thread for noob etiquette. Most know better than to barge in and assume we have all been just flailing around in here for years and years waiting to be educated by some wise ass.

Even money it’s not a noob. The style seems familiar. Then again there is no shortage of said “style” in our society right now. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, REH said:

Here are the actual temps from the same time period your anomaly map is from. Same GEPS, same run. This will Look completely different come January 11th but that is cold enough to snow. People see those reds and think we are talking 50’s and 60’s. We aren’t 

Bob Chill? Is that you?

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2010 is probably the goal here.  We had pac help in Dec but the second round that year was all high latitude driven overcoming a crap pac. But it was PERFECT blocking so that’s living on the edge. But also...it was 11 years ago. We are warming. And a lot of those storms were borderline. Only the late Jan one was cold. All the others after if you add a few degrees we are in trouble.  And the temps in Canada that Jan were warm but not as warm as now!  Probably helped that year the pac wasn’t puke early and allowed a cold pool to build. Then the Atlantic was able to prevent it from being completely obliterated later. 

Either way that temp profile in NW Canada is way better then now! 

The persistent vortex parked in the vicinity of AK, with relatively warmer ocean temps, strong/further north Pac jet, prob makes enough of difference wrt to cold in our nearby source region compared to past years. The -AO is usually money here to deliver cold enough air for snow. Lets see how it plays out over the coming weeks with the advertised negative AO/NAO. Maybe going forward a -WPO/EPO will become more highly correlated to snow for the DC area than a -AO. Ofc we are also in a Nina, and some of the "struggles" we are seeing are inherent in the ENSO background state- which also may be shifting.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Even money it’s not a noob. The style seems familiar. Then again there is no shortage of said “style” in our society right now. 

Mersky?

LOL

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Mersky?

LOL

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, REH said:

 No but he is missed here. I post at another forum where showmethesnow posts. So great to read his morning thoughts. I can understand with a certain poster or two here why they left. 

Which forum?

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Which forum?

Seems like Philly would be a good bet. 

[BlizzardNole]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2010 is probably the goal here.  We had pac help in Dec but the second round that year was all high latitude driven overcoming a crap pac. But it was PERFECT blocking so that’s living on the edge. But also...it was 11 years ago. We are warming. And a lot of those storms were borderline. Only the late Jan one was cold. All the others after if you add a few degrees we are in trouble.  And the temps in Canada that Jan were warm but not as warm as now!  Probably helped that year the pac wasn’t puke early and allowed a cold pool to build. Then the Atlantic was able to prevent it from being completely obliterated later. 

Either way that temp profile in NW Canada is way better then now! 

2010 was once in a lifetime.  Give me a 2018 type winter (around 30" total with one big storm) and I'm ecstatic. 

 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The persistent vortex parked in the vicinity of AK, with relatively warmer ocean temps, strong/further north Pac jet, makes enough of difference wrt to cold in our nearby source region compared to past years. The -AO is usually money here to deliver cold enough air for snow. Lets see how it plays out over the coming weeks with the advertised -AO/NAO. Maybe going forward a -WPO/EPO will become more highly correlated to snow for the DC area than a -AO. Ofc we are also in a Nina, and some of the "struggles" we are seeing are inherent in the ENSO background state- which also may be shifting.

Our current predicament bears some similarities to the dead period in Jan 2010.

That evolved into a barely cold enough look in Feb but it took a perfect west NAO Rex block.  The pac was still garbage with a mean trough along the west coast. But has the base state warmed such that it wouldn’t work anymore. That’s a fair question. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, BlizzardNole said:

2010 was once in a lifetime.  Give me a 2018 type winter (around 30" total with one big storm) and I'm ecstatic. 

 

This winter seems puzzling.  Last winter we knew we were fooked like a prison party for new guests...but we saw it coming...this year seems more uncertain and could go either way.  Memorable or forgettable.  

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, REH said:

 No but he is missed here. I post at another forum where showmethesnow posts. So great to read his morning thoughts again. Truly a great poster. I can understand with a certain poster or two here why they left. 

You haven't been here long enough to miss any of the posters who choose not to post here anymore, for whatever their reasons are. Or maybe you have..